By Brett Daniels
The third edition of the College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday night and there was plenty of movement in the rankings with the results of the past weekend. With only two weeks remaining in the season, these rankings gave an insight into what the committee considers in evaluating these teams. The Selection Committee has been inconsistent with which criteria they consider to be the most important. Wins and losses without regard to strength of schedule or other factors seem to be the data point that is driving the bus.
Below are the Week 3 CFP rankings along with where I think the teams SHOULD be ranked based off of resume, strength of schedule, and won/loss record.
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Week 3 College Football Playoff rankings
1. Oregon Ducks (11-0, 8-0)
The Ducks are one of two undefeated Power 4 conference teams and have quality wins against Ohio State and Boise State. The Ducks struggled at Wisconsin on Saturday but managed to pull out the 16-13 win. Oregon will have the week off before finishing the season against Washington.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Oregon
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2. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1, 6-1)
Ohio State has two conference games remaining against #5 Indiana and Michigan. Winning out would set up a rematch with Oregon for the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes have a quality win over Penn State and their loss is by one point to #1 Oregon on the road.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Ohio State
3. Texas Longhorns (9-1 ,5-1)
Texas has one of the weaker resumes of any top 10 team having the 38th rated strength of schedule and no wins over any team currently in the CFP Top 25. The Longhorns seem to be ranked here by virtue of being the only 1-loss SEC team remaining.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Alabama (8-2)
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1, 6-1)
Similar to Texas, the Nittany Lions are here on the back of a 35th rated strength of schedule however unlike the Longhorns, Penn State has a win over a CFP-ranked Top 25 team in Illinois.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Georgia (8-2)
5. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0, 7-0)
Indiana is the hardest team in the ranking to evaluate. On one hand, they have the easiest schedule of anyone in the current Top 12 by a lot at 108th. On the other hand, they have won all of their games convincingly, soundly beating a Nebraska team that Ohio State struggled with the week after. This Saturday will be the biggest test for the Hoosiers as they visit Ohio State. A win or a good showing will almost certainly secure a spot in the final bracket.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Ole Miss (8-2)
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1)
The Irish will face off against #19 Army in a game that will determine the fate of both teams in the CFB Playoff. A loss by the Irish would eliminate them from consideration while a loss for Army would do the same. Since the loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish have the best defensive metrics of any team including #1 in Stop Rate. Notre Dame also has a quality win against Texas A&M on the road to begin the season.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Notre Dame
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7. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2, 4-2)
The Tide have the 4th hardest schedule according to ESPN and have quality wins over Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. Alabama ranks 10th in Scoring Defense and 8th in Scoring Offense.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Penn State
8. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2, 4-2)
Lane Kiffin has his squad playing their best ball at the right time. A big home win against Georgia last Saturday has propelled the Rebels from outside the bracket to firmly in the Top 12. A road test against Florida on Saturday will not be easy before a game Ole Miss should win against Mississippi State to close out the season.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Texas
9. Miami Hurricanes (9-1, 5-1)
The Hurricanes have had a week to stew over their sound defeat at Georgia Tech two weeks ago. This is another example of the committee looking at the number in the loss column when deciding on the rankings. Miami has the 58th strength of schedule and has needed two last-minute comebacks against California and Virginia Tech to avoid losses.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Indiana
10. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2, 6-2)
The Dawgs closed out their SEC schedule with a win over Tennessee at home. Georgia has faced five top-25 teams this season with only the Vols “Between the Hedges” in Athens. Quality wins against Texas, Tennessee, and Clemson with road losses at #7 Alabama and #8 Ole Miss mean the Dawgs should be ranked a lot higher than 10th in the final edition of these rankings.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Tennessee
11. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2, 5-2)
The Vols started out strong against Georgia on Saturday night quickly jumping out to a 10-0 lead, unfortunately, they would be outscored 31-7 the rest of the way and fall for their second loss of the season. The win over Alabama certainly carries some weight but Tennessee doesn’t have another Top 25 win on its resume. The loss at Arkansas is a blemish and as a result, the Vols are right around where they should be.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Miami
12. Boise State Broncos (9-1, 6-0)
The Broncos are in a similar situation to Indiana in that they can only play who is on their schedule in the Mountain West. A ranked win against UNLV and a close loss at Oregon are Boise State’s best data points.
Who Should Be Ranked Here: Boise State
13. SMU Mustangs (9-1)
SMU can still get into the bracket as the ACC Champion by winning out and beating Miami in the ACC Championship game.
14. BYU Cougars (9-1)
BYU suffered their first loss on Saturday after flirting with it for several weeks. The committee has taken that opportunity to drop them out of the Top 12 although they would still make the bracket in this case as the Big 12 Champion.
The current makeup of the College Football Playoff field:
The Big 10 has four teams and should remain at four barring a major upset in the last two weeks. The SEC also has four teams and that may or may not change depending on who makes the conference championship game. Should Texas A&M win out and make the SEC Championship they would most likely replace Tennessee as things stand now.
The ACC and Big 12 are one-team leagues and now that BYU has a loss that won’t change. Whoever wins the respective conference championships will be the only team in the final bracket. Notre Dame and Boise State are in as long as they continue to win out.
