By Brett Daniels
The first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings will be published on Tuesday night. It is always interesting to see the first edition of the rankings and get clues to what this edition of the College Football Playoff Committee values in how they rank teams.
Other than wins and losses, how will the committee value strength of schedule, ranked wins, and close losses? Will they take advanced stats such as offensive yards per play or defensive stop rate into consideration? How much does the “eye test” factor into who is rated higher? For this exercise we will consider wins and losses, strength of schedule, ranked wins, and who/where/when the teams loss occurred if applicable.
There are also tweaks to the format that are already making themselves known as the season goes on. The 5th seed seems to be the best place to be in the bracket, no conference championship game so, in essence, the bye comes a week early, a home playoff game against most likely an overmatched Group of 5 opponent, and a second-round game against the lowest ranked conference champion at a neutral site. For a team like Ohio State or Tennessee this would be a much easier path to the semifinal round.
Projected College Football Playoff rankings
1. Oregon Ducks (9-0)
The Ducks are undefeated and have wins over the 3rd (Ohio State) and 12th (Boise State) ranked teams. They are currently tied for first in the Big 10 standings with Indiana.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
Georgia has played one of the hardest schedules in the country and has a road win over the 5th ranked team (Texas) in these rankings. The Dawgs are currently tied for first in the SEC with Texas A&M and control their own destiny to play in the SEC Championship Game.
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3. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
The Buckeyes have a road win over the 8th ranked team (Penn State) and only a one-point loss to the #1 team on the road.
4. Miami Hurricanes (8-0)
Miami is 8-0 for the first time since 2017 but only one win against a team currently ranked in the AP Top 25 (Louisville, 25th) and won’t play another ranked team until the ACC Championship Game in SMU (13th) or Clemson (19th).
5. Texas Longhorns (7-1)
No one was happier to see Vanderbilt ranked 24th in this week’s AP Poll than Texas. The Longhorns victory on the road against the Commodores is the only ranked win on their resume.
6. Tennessee Volunteers (7-1)
Tennessee has a solid win over Alabama and will face #2 Georgia and #24 Vanderbilt before the end of the season. The loss against Arkansas looks worse after the Hogs were torched by Ole Miss on Saturday.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
The Irish have two good wins on their resume in Texas A&M and Louisville. Notre Dame also handed Navy their first loss in convincing fashion last weekend. The loss to Northern Illinois is a huge mark in the negative column, however since that game QB Riley Leonard has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country and the defense has been suffocating.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1)
James Franklin continues to feel heat from the fan base for not being able to win the “big game” and the loss to Ohio State on Saturday did not help. The Nittany Lions do not have a win over a currently ranked win and will only play one more team with a winning record the rest of the season (Minnesota).
9. BYU Cougars (8-0)
The Cougars have two good wins over Kansas State and SMU but it seems like they are just the placeholder for whomever is the Big 12 Champion. Even though they are currently ranked 9th, they would be the 4th seed in the playoff bracket.
10. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)
The Hoosiers are 9-0 for the first time in program history and are co-leaders of the Big Ten with Oregon. Indiana is not just winning games they are blowing people out with 14 points as their closest margin of victory. Still, Indiana doesn’t have a win over a ranked opponent and will only face Ohio State on 11/23 in the regular season.
11. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2)
The Aggies are the last “at large” team in the rankings and there is an argument that could be made for Alabama or SMU to be in this spot. For now, the Aggies are tied for 1st with Georgia in the SEC and the win over LSU gives them the nod.
12. Boise State Broncos (7-1)
Boise State gets the 12th spot by virtue of being the top Group of 5 team in the rankings. They don’t have a win over a ranked team and their best resume bullet is a close loss to #1 Oregon on the road.
First four CFB Playoff teams out
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2)
An argument can be made for the Tide to be in the field already based on their win over #2 Georgia and only losses to ranked Tennessee and Vanderbilt by one possession. A win over LSU this week will move Alabama firmly into Top 12.
2. LSU Tigers (7-2)
The Tigers have a win over ranked Ole Miss and a win over South Carolina that looks much better after the Gamecocks blowout win over Texas A&M on Saturday. A win over Alabama would move them into the Top 12.
3. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2)
The Rebels have played a relatively easy schedule so far this season with their best win being over South Carolina. An overtime loss to LSU is currently keeping Ole Miss out of the Top 12 but a win over Georgia on Saturday would fix that.
4. SMU Mustangs (8-1)
SMU beat a previously undefeated Pitt on Saturday and only have a 3-point loss to BYU as the only blemish on their record. An ACC Championship Game win over Miami or even a close loss would help the Mustangs’ case tremendously.
The 12-team field as of now consists of four teams from the Big Ten, four teams from the SEC, one each from the Big 12 and ACC, Notre Dame, and Boise State.
