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College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

Five Major Coaches are 5-7 in Their Last 12 Games. What’s Next for Them?

Hugh Freeze and Lincoln Riley are two coaches sitting at 5-7 in their last 12 games with futures that are up in the air

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Sep 23
Sep 23

By Mike Huesmann

Not all wins or records are created equal. For example, if Kalen DeBoer and Curt Cignetti both go 10-2 in their debut seasons, which the odds suggest they will, attitudes and vibes will be lukewarm in Tuscaloosa, whereas they might erect a statue of Cig in Bloomington.

Now to this specific focus. We have five prominent P4 coaches: Sonny Dykes, Hugh Freeze, Billy Napier, Sam Pittman, and Lincoln Riley who are all 5-7 in their previous 12 games. But beyond that, there are few things that all five have in common. In this article, I break down all five, give their context, and talk about when they might be on the hot seat. They will be listed in order from hottest to coldest seat, right now.

Billy Napier, Florida

The Gators have two solid wins in a row over Mississippi State and UCF, but I still believe Napier is fighting for his job the rest of the way. Public and booster opinion was so against him that expectations were almost unrealistic, given the gauntlet schedule Florida has this year.

Napier is currently 14-16 in his third season in Gainesville. Sitting at 3-2 this year, I feel like he has to win four more regular-season games to be safe. I don’t think that happens, but I am higher on the Gators than most and he has a fighting chance, especially if he keeps the locker room together. Still, he remains the hottest, or maybe second-hottest, seat of any P4 head coach.

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Sam Pittman, Arkansas

It feels wrong to put Pittman as the second hottest on this list after beating Tennessee, but I feel like it’s objectively accurate. The final three guys will not lose their job this year, but Pittman could if the Hogs nosedive in the second half of the season. He also could keep the wins going and be the safest entering the offseason. There is so much variability with him.

Pittman is in year five with a 27-27 record. He took over a terrible situation after the Chad Morris tenure, then won nine games in year two, but hasn’t been able to match that since. Going 4-8 last year was disappointing. The win against Tennessee was massive, but he’s not safe yet.

At 4-2 right now, it looks like Arkansas will get two more wins, at minimum. 6-6 is a coin flip but probably buys him another year, albeit on the 2025 hot seat. At seven wins he is safe, but still on the 2025 hot seat. I don’t know if they get a seven regular season win, this remaining schedule is tough with games against LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas.

Sonny Dykes, TCU

Dykes is still riding the 2022 national title appearance at TCU and will continue to do so into next season where he will be firmly on the 2025 hot seat. His one amazing season has bought him that time. Many people forget, he is only in season three at TCU and their title run happened in his first year in Fort Worth. He is 21-12 overall, 3-3 this year, and was 13-2 in 2022.

The Horned Frog schedule, relative to Big XII standards, isn’t bad for the rest of the season, and getting to six wins and bowl eligibility might make him relatively safe but this team doesn’t look great. I don’t see him losing his job this fall, but if they don’t make a bowl game for the second year in a row, he’ll need plenty of wins in 2025.

Lincoln Riley, USC

Riley’s polarization hurts him in this list. There will be some in USC camps who will want to pay him a severance and say “hit the road.” I don’t think it happens this year, unless he really runs afoul of the wrong people. He is 22-10 in his third year at USC, 3-2 this year, though I think they lose at home to Penn State this coming weekend. They are not a defense that stops the run effectively and their schedule has multiple run-heavy teams left.

USC will at least win six and go to a bowl game, and it should be seven. With Riley’s heavy contract, I think that puts him on the 2025 hot seat with a small chance of losing his job this year. It would take a terrible end of this season for him to be out, however.

Hugh Freeze, Auburn

Freeze made the cardinal sin of going into a season with a poor QB room, ask Sherrone Moore how that’s going. All offseason I clamored with people about what was he doing and why didn’t they get a portal QB? Payton Thorne and Hank Brown are not the guys now, and they will never be the guys. That being said, circumstances might actually help Freeze.

He is in year two, where his record through 19 games is identical to Bryan Harsin’s. Auburn isn’t going to fire another coach after year two. They, at least hopefully, understand that instability can crater your program. Thus, Freeze will be the 2025 Auburn head coach, and he should be. This roster has loads of young talent and he is recruiting extremely well. Freeze will have to be really bad in 2025 to lose his job, let’s all hope for the sake of TV viewing that he gets a stable and productive QB to go along with his stable of young WRs. 

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