By Rock Westfall
At the onset of the season, nobody thought much of the Big Ten opener between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Nebraska Cornhuskers. Illinois regressed last season, missing a bowl and casting doubts and heat upon head coach Bret Bielema. Nebraska was touted as a team that could be among the most improved in the country, but fans and media were focused on the Colorado grudge match and the revenge angle that came with it.
Now, suddenly, Illinois and Nebraska kick off Week 4 Friday night on FOX in a Top 25 showdown with high stakes for both teams. For Nebraska, a loss to Illinois can badly damage all the progress and goodwill that they have built up.
Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule summed it up well.
“I felt pretty good about what we did Saturday offensively, but that was all preseason to me,” said Rhule at his Monday press conference. “Now the season starts. First game in the Big Ten, and we’ll find out where we are.”
Rhule also warned that Nebraska has become a target for its opponents.
“We’re no longer the hunter; we’re no longer the unranked team that people are like, ‘Who do we have this week? Oh, we’re playing Nebraska. Okay, we beat them the last four years,’” Rhule said. “Now you’re the team that people are preparing for.”
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My, what a difference a year makes.
"That's why they [Big Ten coaches] don't believe the rankings. They know that every game in this league, inside the Big Ten, is losable."
BTN's Rick Pizzo joined us today to talk Nebraska-Illinois, giving his thoughts on how the stakes of this game have changed since August. pic.twitter.com/1H2SbaOx7b
— The Average Joe Sports Show (@ajsportsradio) September 18, 2024
Bielema Goes Back to the Basics
At heart, Bret Bielema is a coach who wants to run the ball, eat the clock, and complement that with defense. He also wants a resilient team that can overcome obstacles and fight back from deficits.
After a 45-0 laugher against Eastern Illinois in the season opener, Illinois scored a 23-17 home win against a highly touted Kansas team favored to contend for the Big 12 championship in the preseason polls. Illinois trailed 17-13 after three quarters but came through with a 23-17 win that sent fans storming the field. Last week, Illinois enjoyed its most polished performance in a 30-9 win over Central Michigan.
Despite its 3-0 record, Illinois does not have the dominant metrics of a serious contender. Despite the relatively weak early slate, the Illini rank 78th for total offense and 56th for scoring. Defensively, however, they rank 13th for points allowed and 3rd for turnovers forced. Also, the Illini have committed only one turnover this season. Thus, Bielema is building a team that refuses to beat itself.
The man to watch for Illinois is quarterback Luke Altmyer. So far, the junior has a 164.3 QBR with 647 yards, a 69.2 completion percentage, 8.3 yards per attempt, and six touchdowns with no picks.
Sophomore running back Kaden Feagin is symbolic of a Bielema-coached team. The 250-pounder has 173 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, and three TDs. Feagin is complimented by receivers Pat Bryant (15 catches, 235 yards, 4 TDs) and Zakhari Franklin (16 catches, 193 yards, 0 TDs).
Perhaps the Illini’s secret weapon is sophomore kicker David Olano, who is 11-11 on extra points and 6-7 on field goals. In a tight game, Olano could provide the difference against a Nebraska team that is still unproven at the PK position.
https://twitter.com/IlliniFB/status/1834999830541672463
Does Nebraska Have Just a Little Bit More?
With home wins over UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa, the Huskers have a comparable body of work to the Illini. They also have similar metrics: 50th for total offense and 44th for scoring. Defensively, Nebraska ranks 22nd overall and 7th for points allowed.
The offense has often been deliberately conservative, with an emphasis on the run and grinding out the clock. Dante Dowdell continues to impress as the emerging bellcow running back. Dowdell has 184 yards, 5.9 yards per carry, and three touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Dylan Raiola has a 162.2 QBR with 670 yards, a 73.8 completion percentage, and 8.4 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, and one pick. The true freshman plays with the cool, polished demeanor of a seasoned veteran and has emerged as a respected leader of the offense through his work ethic and study habits.
PK Tristan Alvano has hit all 12 extra point attempts and is 3-4 on field goals, but an ugly medium-range miss against UTEP remains an eyesore and concern for the Huskers. If the game is on the line with Alvano, it will be the type of test the sophomore hasn’t yet passed. In Alvano’s defense, he missed the start of summer camp with a groin injury that required surgery. In the last two games, he has shown an improved presence.
Meanwhile, senior punter Brian Buschini was a key asset if not the player of the game against Colorado, and is averaging 50.1 yards per punt.
Nebraska has also shown encouraging improvement with the return game. The Big Red is averaging 22.0 yards per kickoff return and 8.2 yards per punt return, significantly more than last year.
Rhule made the kicking teams a key priority for 2024 and has turned a long-term liability into a potential asset.
Shilo Sanders during the coin toss:
“We about to roll your a**… boy you know we about to roll you bruh.”
Dante Dowdell: pic.twitter.com/VnVpKoxrNH
— Blackshirts (@blvckshirts) September 12, 2024
400th Consecutive Sellout Offers National TV Recruiting Ad
Through thick and thin, Nebraska fans are known as the best in college football. Friday night’s game will mark the 400th consecutive sellout at Memorial Stadium, dating back to the Kennedy Administration in 1962. As was the case with Nebraska’s nationally televised TV win against Colorado, Friday night’s game against Illinois offers the Big Red a virtual infomercial for recruiting.
There is No Place Like Nebraska and there never will be.
Next Friday’s game vs. Illinois will officially mark the 400th consecutive sellout at Memorial Stadium. 🏟️ pic.twitter.com/mr4WvaJr7X
— Nebraska Huskers (@Huskers) September 10, 2024
The Pick
This is an outstanding Top 25 Big Ten matchup of improved teams with similar styles and philosophies and coaches who respect each other. The Big Ten opener also brings its element of risk and pressure to a pair of programs looking to continue hot starts and breakout with a big season after a tough 2023.
Nebraska holds a slight edge with Memorial Stadium and the 400th consecutive sellout that will provide an electric atmosphere unsurpassed in the sport. The Big Red owns a bit more skill, defense, offensive line capability, and Raiola. But there is no margin for error, and the Huskers must avoid turnovers, mental mistakes, and excessive penalties. Illinois can certainly win this game.
This Friday night matchup is where the Colorado game will pay dividends for the Big Red. Nebraska responded well under pressure and the national spotlight in a big-game atmosphere against the Buffs. That experience will serve them well here.
Nebraska 21, Illinois 17
Looking at Illinois @ Nebraska couple of take away….
– Nebraska is solid all around analytically
– Illinois struggles with running the ball and stopping the run and with finishing drive rate (points per eckel)
-Illinois pass defense is the strength of their team pic.twitter.com/7kIw604Pr7— Husker X's & O's (@HuskersX) September 17, 2024