By Brett Daniels
Preseason Polls are a great conversation piece, and they allow the networks to hype games between “ranked” opponents in the early part of the season, but do they do more harm than good?
College football's preseason AP poll has arrived! 🏈
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Penn State
9. Michigan
10. Florida State— ESPN (@espn) August 12, 2024
The Preseason Coaches Poll was released on August 5th and the Preseason AP Poll was released on August 12th, before any of these teams had played a game or had their first scrimmage. Most of the teams had only been in fall camp four days when the Coaches Poll was released. We are putting stock in polls that are based on “who was good last year” or “who has a favorable schedule” without taking so much as a cursory look at each team’s roster.
The Michigan Wolverines were ranked in the Top 10 to start the season despite having a massive drain of talent and coaching from last year’s team. Michigan had a school-record 13 players drafted into the NFL including QB JJ McCarthy along with key members of the #1 ranked defense that helped the Wolverines win the National Championship. Additionally, Head Coach Jim Harbaugh and Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter both left for NFL jobs with the LA Chargers. Recruiting classes of 13th (2021), 13th (2022), 19th (2023), and 20th (2024) are not providing the influx of talent to replace those players that were drafted. It isn’t a surprise to see the Wolverines struggle this season after losing so much. Texas, however, will get credit for “beating a Top 10 team on the road” which is ridiculous considering Michigan will be lucky to go 7-5.
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Florida State, like Michigan, is the beneficiary of being good last season and getting the benefit of the doubt going into 2024. The Seminoles had 10 players drafted off last year’s 13-1 ACC Championship team including star EDGE Jared Verse in the 1st round. Florida State has relied heavily on the Transfer Portal over the last several seasons with high school recruiting classes ranking 23rd (2021), 19th (2022), 13th (2023), and 11th (2024) not able to replace graduating talent. QB DJ Uiagalelei is on his third school in three years and has not produced at the level needed for Florida State to be competitive. Adding in the defensive line that was supposed to be one of the best in the country being dominated by Georgia Tech and Boston College and it’s clear that this edition of Florida State is nowhere near a Top 10 team, yet they were ranked 10th to begin the season.
The opposite of what happened with Michigan and Florida State is also true, teams that begin the season under-ranked face an uphill battle to gain respect with poll voters and the Selection Committee. Miami and Tennessee are two programs that began the season ranked 19th and 15th respectively in the Preseason AP and Coaches Polls. The Canes have looked sharp by going into the Swamp and blowing out Florida behind a masterful performance by QB Cam Ward and handling an overmatched Florida A&M team in Week 2. Likewise, Tennessee looked impressive against an overmatched Chattanooga in Week 1 and blew out a solid NC State team in Charlotte in Week 2. Tennessee has risen to 7th in the AP and 9th in the Coaches Poll while Miami is ranked 10th AP and 12th in the Coaches Poll.
In the middle of this are teams that we don’t really know anything about but are highly ranked. Is Ole Miss really the 5th best team in the country? They have blown out an FCS team and a bottom Group of 5 teams in consecutive weeks. The offensive numbers look impressive but for comparison, Auburn scored 73 points against Alabama A&M and then lost to Cal 21-14, showing how quality of competition matters. Penn State had an impressive victory over West Virginia to start the season and then struggled against Bowling Green in Week 2, was that just a loss of focus or are the Nittany Lions not as good as their #8 AP/#7 Coaches rankings would suggest? How about Clemson? The Tigers struggled mightily against #1 Georgia in Week 1 and then came out and blew doors on a very good Appalachian State team in Week 2. They rank #22 in the AP and #20 in the coaches poll.
The only teams that truly reload season after season are Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State. Texas is getting there, and a few more top recruiting classes would put them in the same tier as those first three teams. Talent matters and how that talent plays together matters even more. Teams that rely heavily on transfers are going to struggle at the beginning of the season with chemistry issues against similar or slightly lesser opponents. Teams that grow their own talent are going to lose players to the NFL, the Transfer Portal, and to graduation just like everyone else but the players that plug into those spots are going to have played before, most of the time significant snaps, and won’t truly be “new starters”. They will be indoctrinated into the team’s culture and understand the offensive or defensive system that they are playing in.
College Football has such a wide variety of teams, styles, and schedule strength that it truly takes five to six games to get an idea of which teams are contenders and which teams are frauds. The 12-team Playoff will make a lot of this a moot point in the long run however the teams that are fighting for those last spots will want an accurate portrayal of their season and who they have beaten along the way.
