Mike Farrell Sports

College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

News of Billy Napier’s Demise Is Premature and Potentially Exaggerated

Can the coach on the hottest of seats defy the experts?

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By Rock Westfall

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier is in the hottest seat in the land. Napier is 11-14 after two seasons, and Florida fans, as always, are out of patience. One of the toughest schedules in college football beckons, but Napier has one advantage in his favor—conventional wisdom.

If there is anything I loathe, it is conventional wisdom and groupthink. It is oxymoronic with the emphasis on moronic. It is lazy and the easy way out. Most important of all, it is routinely wrong.

Despite the stormy skies, Napier and the Gators can defy the experts. They have the best roster in Napier’s tenure and the advantage of being overlooked. Like a good stock, the Gators are a buy-low proposition.

Napier Touts Veteran Players’ Experience

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Napier likes his third Florida team for its depth and experience. The “experts” who have him fired already rarely mention the veteran factor.

“I love our team. I really like what I’ve observed,” Napier said. “For the first time, we’ve got some stability. The roster’s kind of stabilized. I think we’ve got competitive depth. There’s credible leadership at the player level — 17 starters coming back. We’ve got close to 41,000 snaps of experience. I’ve got confidence in what I’ve observed. I think some of the changes that we’ve made in the offseason have been impactful. This group’s excited to play.”

Florida ranked 115th in returning production last year. In comparison, it is 24th this season, thanks largely to starting true or redshirt freshmen 37 times.

Quarterback Graham Mertz is a seasoned veteran and put up the best numbers of his career at Florida. With its depth and experience, Florida can compete with almost anyone it faces.

Napier Confronts the Gauntlet 

Per most formulas, Florida has the toughest strength of schedule this season. But what is ignored is that Florida is not Vanderbilt. They have a roster built on good recruiting classes that have valuable experience.

While the slate is daunting, the Gators will play opponents that will be facing their own internal challenges. We don’t yet see factors that could fall in Florida’s favor. The Missouri Tigers were not expected to go 11-2 with a Cotton Bowl win over Ohio State last year, but they did.

“I think there’s a narrative about the schedule. I think what we’ve learned — and I think every coach in our league will tell you — you’ve got to break things up into short periods of time and focus on what’s next,” Napier said. “We’ve got ten more days of this training block, 45 days out from the opener. We’re transitioning to training camp. And then literally about having the ability to reset every week, having the self-discipline to prepare Sunday to Saturday regardless of the outcome. Erase the board. Ignore the noise. Don’t believe the hype. Do it again, and do that consistently. We’ve played in a lot of close games. We haven’t been able to close some of those out. I think that’s what we’ve got to leverage our experience.”

The first seven games of the schedule may be more manageable than acknowledged. The Gators get two of their toughest opponents, Miami-FL and Texas A&M, at home. The most difficult but winnable matchup is at Tennessee. The Gators can be 7-0 or 6-1 heading into the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail party against Georgia on November 2.

Games at Texas and LSU are undeniably difficult, but if the Gators have momentum and those teams encounter unexpected trouble along the way, bigger upsets have happened. Hosting Ole Miss is another challenging but potentially winnable game. The regular season finale at Florida State looks tough, but how dominant are the Seminoles after losing plenty of key personnel, most notably QB Jordan Travis, from 2023? 

The Football Gods Owe Florida

Florida got off to a promising 5-2 start in 2023 before the roof caved in, and they finished 5-7. There were close call losses to Arkansas (39-36 in OT) and Missouri (33-31) that could have easily gone the other way. Often, the Football Gods will even things out in the season that follows.

“I think it’s just, ultimately, every detail matters. Smart group. We’ve got a group that’s been in those battles. They’ve remembered that play. They remember that possession. One more score here, one more stop here, one more field goal here, a little bit better situational awareness here,” Napier said. “I think over the history of this game, experience matters, right? We’re blessed that we’ve got a good group coming back. For the first time, we’ve got competitive depth to go with it. I think Year 3, our roster’s starting to look like what it should look like.”

What is the Magic Number? 

At a bare minimum, Napier needs six wins and a bowl game to give the Florida administration enough of a reason to keep him for a fourth year. But don’t be surprised if the Gators reach eight wins or more. And again, it is almost certain that Florida’s opponents will not have perfect seasons in which nothing goes wrong. There will be vulnerabilities we don’t currently see. Football seasons always have the element of the unknowns, both good and bad. Factors that are initially impossible to fathom pop up as the schedule progresses.

With Mertz, a veteran supporting cast, low expectations, and in the face of groupthink, the Gators have the potential to be one of college football’s great surprises in 2024.

If you don’t believe me, just ask Buster Douglas and Mike Tyson.

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