by Kyle Golik
Best Of The Rest:
Penn State, Michigan, Miami, Ole Miss, LSU
Take: James Franklin will always keep Penn State interesting. The Nittany Lions may even flirt time-to-time with a Top 5 ranking, but a leopard never changes its spots as Franklin has more top programs to struggle with.
I am not certain Sherrone Moore is the answer, but I feel Michigan will be lurking as Moore will embrace the foundation that former head coach Jim Harbaugh left by dominating in the trenches. It will be ultimately if Moore can secure his JJ McCarthy to get into the Top 10.
Mario Cristobal will recruit Miami back to flirting with elite status, it will be Cristobal who will coach him out of the Top 10.
Lane Kiffin will miss his “boat” to take the Rebels to elite status, kind of like how Franklin had that opportunity in 2017 with Penn State. While the Rebels will be in the tier below, they will always be asking what if in The Grove.
If I analogized Franklin as a leopard that never changes its spots, LSU head coach Brian Kelly is another. Kelly will have as much talent as any coach in the nation, but will come up short. While Kelly is a strong figure overseeing the LSU program, and doing the things his predecessor Ed Orgeron couldn’t, Kelly will misfire in critical moments. Don’t be surprised if Kelly’s “fam-uh-lee” divorces themselves from him between now and then.
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#10 Notre Dame
Take: Head coach Marcus Freeman gets it, and has spent his first two plus seasons learning the ropes being a head coach. During that same time, the Irish have progressed a lot, especially leveraging the portal to get veteran signal callers like Sam Hartman (Wake Forest) and Riley Leonard (Duke). If Freeman, who in 2024 should have an Irish team that is favored in all their games, can live up to expectations, Notre Dame will be higher. If Freeman cannot secure the big wins, this is appropriate.
#9 Nebraska
Take: One of my biggest reaches in this entire list, and arguably the one that will get scrutinized the most. Remember it is what it will look like in five years, and even after a season in Lincoln, Matt Rhule has changed the culture completely there. I fully expect Nebraska to make a serious jump this year and win 9 games. While they landed arguably their biggest recruit in a generation in legacy quarterback Dylan Raiola, the pressure is how they develop him and be able to showcase to other blue chip recruits you can make it big in Lincoln. I feel Rhule is going to leverage the grudge match against Colorado for all it is worth, similar to how Dan Lanning did last year for Oregon. The trajectory of Matt Rhule programs is Year 3 they break through, we have yet to see Rhule sustain, but conversely we haven’t seen Rhule at a program with the resources has either.
#8 Florida State
Take: What Mike Norvell has done since the start of the 2022 season going 23-4 shows signs the Seminoles are not slowing down anytime soon. Norvell dealt with arguably one of the biggest blows being denied an invite to the College Football Playoff despite going undefeated. That whole ordeal will bode well for Norvell as he now knows what he needs to do to avoid that. Don’t be surprised if the Seminoles next big move is either in the Big Ten or SEC.
#7 Alabama
Take: Kalen DeBoer isn’t Nick Saban, nor pretends to be. However, Alabama fans have literally been accustomed to winning large and big ever since Saban took over in 2007. DeBoer is an elite coach, his overall record of 104-12 backs that statement up. I do feel DeBoer won’t be as automatic as Saban was in the big games or large moments, but DeBoer will win his fair share of them. Alabama fans need to be reminded, their new coach helped guide Washington to a national championship appearance and a 22-game winning streak during his two seasons in Seattle, patience is key.
#6 Oklahoma
Take: Patience has been exercised in Norman with head coach Brent Venables that seemingly was rewarded last month with a six-year contract extension. with a total value of $51.6 million through 2029. Venables has said on numerous occasions that his rebuild was more than just a typical one, it was almost rebuilding a new foundation because of the defensive woes and mass portal exodus that ensued. Oklahoma defeated Texas a season ago, and won 10 games. I expect Oklahoma this year to be between 8 to 10 wins, they do have Tennessee, Auburn, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, and LSU. While it is easy to be short sighted and knock the Sooners, it cannot get much tougher than this. Expect Oklahoma to flirt with the Top 5 sooner rather than later.
#5 Southern California
Take: Hopefully not all of Troy shares the same zeal as the L.A. Times’ Bill Plaschke about Lincoln Riley. Sure Plaschke is correct the honeymoon is over for Riley, and he does have to own the failures of Alex Grinch. Landing a defensive troika in D’Anton Lynn, Matt Entz, and Doug Belk prove that Riley has a standard he is looking for. The fact Southern California got two five-star defensive ends from Georgia in Justus Terry and Isaiah Gibson to verbally commit spoke volumes. Losing both hurts, but it shows how aggressive that will be. When the Trojan defense can be a Top 25 one, coupled with Riley’s high scoring offenses, that will be the day Tommy Trojan and Traveler are galloping in the College Football Playoff.
#4 Georgia
Take: It seemed Georgia ran out of gas in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama, where Kirby Smart dropped to 1-5 against Nick Saban. It was hard to gauge the Orange Bowl domination of Florida State, on the surface demolishing an undefeated team 63-3 speaks volumes. Considering how different that Florida State was entering that game from the ACC Championship Game, it’s hard to say what to make of that for Georgia. I don’t expect Georgia to drop lower than No. 4 over the next five years. It will be interesting how Texas and Oklahoma become a thorn in Smart’s side. Plus don’t discount DeBoer at Alabama as well. I feel the old SEC East that Smart ran through he will miss a bit and the Dawgs will get dinged a few times along the way.
#3 Oregon
As Dan Lanning continues to be scorching hot in the Class of 2025 with the No. 5 overall class, Lanning’s aggressiveness to build Oregon has been on full display. With the inaugural Big Ten season for Oregon, the stakes couldn’t be any higher for their October 12 clash with Ohio State. A win only adds to the inferno that is burning in Eugene, a loss won’t extinguish it but can slow it down. The talent Lanning is assembling in Eugene is worthy to be near the top of the country, only thing Oregon has to do is produce results.
#2 Texas
Take: The quarterback situation for Steve Sarkisian is the standard for the rest of the country to follow. Quinn Ewers should be a Day 1 Draft Choice in 2025. By all accounts Arch Manning should live up to his surname and be the next great quarterback. Third string quarterback Trey Owens is a physical marvel at 6’5” 236 pounds. The offense will always be there for Sarkisian as he knows how to build a dominant one, he was the architect for Alabama’s 2020 offense. The questions holding Texas back from being the top program in the country is the defense.
#1 Ohio State
Take: Ryan Day has checked every box a head coach can accomplish except winning a national championship. I feel Ohio State is at the dawn of a golden era in Columbus where they should win multiple national championships. The talent they have today on the roster, especially highly touted underclassmen, plus having as of this writing the top recruiting class in the country. It’s hard to imagine Ohio State not winning it all, and that would be an absolute failure for Day. Now that Ohio State went aggressive in the transfer portal, the engine in Columbus is the best one in the country. Now it needs to deliver and should a few times over the next five seasons.
