By Brett Daniels
2024 will see the College Football Playoff expand from four to twelve teams. The criteria for selecting the field of twelve will be the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. For this article, we will assume that the champion of each of the Power 4 conferences will be among the five highest-ranked conference champions. Notre Dame and the highest-ranked Group of 5 team will also be considered.
1. Kansas (17)
Home: Lindenwood (FCS), UNLV (86), TCU (30), Houston (78), Iowa State (47), Colorado (36)
Away: Illinois (62), West Virginia (35), Arizona State (63), Kansas State (22), BYU (73), Baylor (55)
Kansas is the highest-rated team from the Big 12 in the initial FPI ratings and plays a schedule that does not feature a team rated inside the Top 20 and only four inside the Top 40. QB Jalon Daniels returns from injury along with RB Devin Neal (1,280 yds/12 TD) to lead the Jayhawk offense. If Kansas can find enough defense to limit opponents’ big plays, there is a very good chance the Jayhawks will make the College Football Playoff. The floor for KU is 9-3 with losses to TCU, Colorado, and Kansas State. The ceiling is 12-0 with a Big 12 Championship and a first-round bye in the CFP.
2. Oregon (2)
Home: Idaho (FCS), Boise State (48), Michigan State (68), Ohio State (4), Illinois (62), Maryland (46), Washington (31)
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Away: Oregon State (38), UCLA (40), Purdue (60), Michigan (12), Wisconsin (39)
The Ducks will begin the season in a new conference but with the same high expectations for success. Coach Dan Lanning has built Oregon into a perennial contender for the College Football Playoff. The Ducks get Ohio State at home and have a tough trip to Ann Arbor to face Michigan on the road. Other than that, the schedule is very manageable, and it would be a surprise to see Oregon lose any of the remaining games. The floor is 10-2 and the ceiling is 12-0. At worst, the Ducks should qualify for an at-large bid to the Playoff.
3. Notre Dame (7)
Home: Northern Illinois (114), Miami (OH) (90), Louisville (21), Stanford (59), Florida State (11), Virginia (72)
Away: Texas A&M (14), USC (18), Purdue (60)
Neutral: Georgia Tech (54), Navy (124), Army (121)
The Fighting Irish are poised to make the field of 12 with this less-than-daunting slate of games. The season opener at Texas A&M will be a challenge as will the November visit of Florida State to South Bend. Outside of those two games the Irish should be favored by 10 or more points in every game. Three neutral site games against Georgia Tech (Mercedes Benz Stadium), Army (Yankee Stadium), and Navy (Giants Stadium) mean that Notre Dame will only play three true road games.
The floor for this schedule is 10-2 with losses to Texas A&M and Florida State which should be good enough for the Irish to make the field of 12. The ceiling is 12-0 which would only net a five-seed and a home game in the first round due to the rules regarding conference champions.
4. Penn State (6)
Home: Bowling Green (103), Kent State (134), Illinois (62), UCLA (40), Ohio State (4), Washington (31), Maryland (46)
Away: West Virginia (35), USC (18), Wisconsin (39), Purdue (60), Minnesota (61)
The Nittany Lions are another team that has been on the cusp of making the College Football Playoff and falling just short (although Penn State fans will tell you that they should have been in over Ohio State in 2016). With no Oregon or Michigan on the schedule, the Nittany Lions’ toughest tests will be a trip to Southern California to face the Trojans on October 12 followed by a home date with Ohio State a few weeks later. The floor for this schedule is 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State and the ceiling is 12-0 which should put them in the Big 10 Championship Game and secure a playoff berth.
5. Florida State (11)
Home: Boston College (58), Memphis (66), California (43), Clemson (15), North Carolina (42), Charleston Southern (FCS), Florida (20)
Away: SMU (25), Duke (52), Miami (23), Notre Dame (7)
Neutral: Georgia Tech (54)
Florida State will be a team on a mission this season after being the first undefeated Power 5 conference champion to be left out of the 4-team playoff. The Seminoles will have to replace 10 players who were drafted off last year’s team. QB DJ Uiagalelei is back in the ACC after starting his college career at Clemson and will look to build on a solid bounce-back season at Oregon State.
The Seminoles begin the year with a tricky game against a much-improved Georgia Tech team in Dublin, Ireland. A trip to South Bend to face Notre Dame in early November will likely determine if the Noles complete a second undefeated regular season. The floor for this schedule is 9-3 with losses to Clemson, Miami, and Notre Dame which would most likely keep Florida State out of the playoff. The ceiling is 11-1 with a loss at Notre Dame.
6. Bonus: Boise State (48)
Home: Portland State (FCS), Washington State (64), Utah State (102), San Diego State (80), Nevada (120), Oregon State (38)
Away: Georgia Southern (96), Oregon (2), Hawaii (112), UNLV (86), San Jose State (81), Wyoming (99)
The Broncos are the most likely Group of 5 representative for the College Football Playoff and should finish no worse than 10-2 against this schedule with losses against Oregon and Oregon State. A strong showing or win against the Beavers would help the Broncos in the eyes of the selection committee. However, if they somehow drop a third game against this line up there is virtually no way that they make the field.
