By; Mike Huesmann
Most of us probably don’t look this far ahead in the coaching carousel, but I do.Thinking about who has to win now, who could be replaced, and each coach’s situation involves lots of moving parts. I have already posted my hot list entering this season, but what about the following year? Every year we enter the season with hot seat coaches. The top spot in each of my last two years has gone in total opposite directions. Scott Frost fumbled the bag and was promptly fired after three games in 2022. 2023 saw Neal Brown enter as the hottest of the hot and he took the Mountaineers to a 9-4 record and probably should’ve been Big XII coach of the year. In short, you can never predict how the future will go. So what I’m hypothesizing here are five coaches who, with poor 2024 seasons, will be on the hot seat in 2025. These are guys I believe who will not be fired in 2024 with a down year, so the likes of Dave Aranda and Billy Napier are not included, as they would be fired this year. Here are five P4 coaches who will need to win now, or else risk being on the hot seat entering 2025.
Brent Venables, Oklahoma
- Record at OU: 16-10
- 2023 record: 10-3
- Entering year 3
Admittedly I have been a critic of this hire, but year two was a success that saw double digit wins. Year one in 2022 was a disaster though, and that won’t be totally forgotten unless another solid season occurs in 2024. The move to the SEC and that schedule will not be kind. A season of 7-5, or so, is not outside the realm of possibility and any worse could put Venables on the hot seat entering 2025. This is one of the blue blood jobs and they don’t expect to have two mediocre seasons in three years.
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Mario Cristobal, Miami
- Record at Miami: 12-13
- 2023 record: 7-6
- Entering year 3
Mario Cristobal is the one guy on this list who may have a shot, if all things go wrong, of being fired in 2024, but I doubt it. He’s a favorite son and has a long leash. That leash should extend to 2025, but will not go longer unless he produces a nine win season in 2024 or 2025. The roster looks good and they have the resources, but his results have not been there. The disaster and terrible coaching in the meltdown against Georgia Tech will hurt him too. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory looks exponentially bad in cases like that. Win now or the future is murky for Cristobal.
Neal Brown, West Virginia
- Record at WVU: 31-29
- 2023 record: 9-4
- Entering year 6
The aforementioned Neal Brown did well in 2023 and bought himself 2024 but the grace period is over and last season will be forgotten if 2024 doesn’t bring the same. I don’t think Brown is in danger of getting fired this year but if they limp to a 5- or 6-win season, 2025 will be a repeat of 2023. Not many coaches can survive multiple trips to the hot seat. The Mountaineers have a lot to replace, especially in the trenches this year. Can they put together another solid year?
Sonny Dykes, TCU
- Record at TCU: 18-9
- 2023 record: 5-7
- Entering year 3
Sonny Dykes won’t get fired in 2024, but it’s also crazy to think we’re only 16 months removed from him playing for a national championship. The Frogs plummeted to 5-7 in 2023 and much of the aura of the year before was gone. If another losing season happens in 2024 a few things will happen, none of them good for Dykes. People will say he only won in 2022 with Gary Patterson’s players, he may have to fire a few assistant coaches to look like he’s changing, and he enters 2025 with questions surrounding his future. Looking at the TCU schedule this year; another 5-7 record definitely seems possible.
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
- Record at Cincy: 3-9
- 2023 record: 3-9
- Entering year 2
Scott Satterfield had a few average years at Louisville before moving to Cincinnati ahead of 2023. Year one in the Big XII was not kind to the Bearcats, a 3-9 record saw few positives and a single conference win. Satterfield will get three years in his new job, as I believe almost all new coaches should. That being said, if Cincy misses a bowl game again he will be on the hot seat entering 2025. The administration and fan base won’t accept such poor results multiple years in a row now that they’re in a P4 conference. Can he do better in year two and get the Bearcats on track?
