By Alec Nederveld
We see it every year. For one reason or another, talented players go a lot later than expected in the NFL Draft. Aaron Rodgers is the poster child of this, with players like Christian Gonzalez and Will Levis going much lower than expected in last year’s draft. Here are five projected first-round picks that could get selected later than expected.
EDGE Laiatu Latu
UCLA
The film and production for Laiatu Latu are there, but there are multiple red flags. Most notably, a medical retirement after suffering a neck injury in 2020. He didn’t play in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, although was dominant in the following two years and the injury hasn’t popped up since. Latu had double-digit sacks in both 2022 and 2023, leading the PAC-12 with 13.0 sacks and the country with 21.5 tackles for loss this year.
In addition, Latu is also on the older end of prospects at 23 years old. I wouldn’t label him as unathletic, but he’s not the most athletic. Latu may be the most pro-ready prospect, but the flash of younger, more athletic players without a medical retirement could push him to the back of the first round, if not the early second.
OT Amarius Mims
Georgia
The Georgia Offensive Lineman has large size, an even larger potential, but could have few first-round suitors. The 6’8″, 340-pound frame has everybody excited, he carries his weight very well, and moves fantastic for his size. Mims is also only 21 years old with a lot of time to develop.
The downside is Mims is a very raw prospect, only starting eight games in college. In 2023, he suffered an ankle injury requiring tightrope surgery, only playing in six games in his junior season.
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Many teams will look past Mims for these reasons and the list of teams willing to take a chance on him in the first round are limited. The Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers are natural choices to make this pick, but they have other needs which they could choose. This is also a very deep tackle draft class. I wouldn’t be surprised for Mims to be available in the second round.
For the #Panthers, keep an eye on two outside possibilities:
Laiatu Latu
Amarius MimsI have zero info to suggest that they would fall that far, but injury history for both could cause them to tumble down the order.
Doubtful it happens but you never know.
— Jared Feinberg (@JRodNFLDraft) April 25, 2024
QB JJ McCarthy
Michigan
There’s almost no doubt that JJ McCarthy will be a first-round pick. However, he may not be the surefire top-five pick as is being predicted. So much of the reports this close to NFL Draft are smoke screens. No position is affected by these smoke screens as much as quarterback, and the late-riser nature of McCarthy and possible trade-ups could be overinflating his value.
Going back to the intro, Will Levis was the betting favorite to go No. 2 overall less than a week before the 2023 draft. While the Giants and Vikings want McCarthy, do they want him enough to draft a first-round pick (if not more) to trade up for him? Especially for a polarizing quarterback who wasn’t asked to do much and doesn’t have elite physical tools.
WR Adonai Mitchell
Texas
Adonai Mitchell has one of the highest ceilings in a loaded receiver class, but character concerns may push him back. He’s been described as “almost uncoachable” and may not be managing his Type 1 Diabetes the right way. In addition, Mitchell was inconsistent on the field. 11 touchdowns are great, but 10 games with three or fewer catches is not ideal.
Still, there is plenty of upside for Mitchell. He’s also only 21, shows up when it matters most (five touchdowns in five playoff games), and is a physical monster. Mitchell ran a 4.34 40, with a 39.5 inch vertical, and a ridiculous 9.99 of 10 Relative Athletic Score (RAS). He’s the true definition of a boom-or-bust, but there are safer options that could cause Mitchell to drop.
Adonai Mitchell is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.99 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 5 out of 3121 WR from 1987 to 2024.
Pro day pending.https://t.co/t32le05j0m pic.twitter.com/mOrXPYGZSh
— RAS.football (@MathBomb) March 16, 2024
