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College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

Could Florida Freshman Sensation DJ Lagway Give Billy Napier a Midnight Reprieve?

Florida HC Billy Napier is on one of the hottest seats in college football, could playing DJ Lagway cool the flames?

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Florida quarterback DJ Lagway (2) passes to a receiver during practice. The Florida Gators held their second Spring football practice at Sanders Practice Fields in Gainesville
Florida quarterback DJ Lagway (2) passes to a receiver during practice. The Florida Gators held their second Spring football practice at Sanders Practice Fields in Gainesville

By Rock Westfall 

Florida head coach Billy Napier is on one of the hottest seats in college football. The consensus is that his career will face the firing squad in 2024. With nothing to lose, it might make more sense for Napier to play his prized 5-star QB recruit, DJ Lagway. 

The Lay of the Swamp 

Billy Napier’s Florida coaching career is said to be in its final stages. After a promising 3-1 start to the 2023 season, an ugly 33-14 loss at Kentucky foretold of impending doom. Needing just one win to gain bowl eligibility, Florida lost its final five games of the campaign to finish 5-7 and out of the money.

Of course, the collapse ignited a media firestorm, social and otherwise, of negativity. In turn, the Gators suffered from an easy case of negative recruiting. What was looking like a potential Top 5 ranked recruiting class fell to 10th or worse, depending on the recruiting service.

This space has touched on Florida’s self-inflicted wounds and a demanding fan culture that is not realistic. Napier is not entirely at fault for Florida’s dilemma. But he was charged to fix it. Furthermore, when Napier arrived, Florida gave him an unlimited budget for staff and facilities, which he exceeded in about an hour.

Now Napier faces a win-or-else season with one of the toughest schedules in college football. He also faces many difficult personnel decisions, especially at QB. Should Napier make his last stand with veteran Graham Mertz? Or should he play with the liberation of a condemned coach and go with 5-star sensation DJ Lagway, the true freshman phenom out of Willis, TX?

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An Increasingly Forgotten and Faded Phenom  

Once upon a time, Graham Mertz was a thing. In fact, he was the highest-rated (4-star) QB prospect in the history of the Wisconsin Badgers. Mertz led a 2019 class that was to transform then-head coach Paul Chryst’s Badgers into contention for a national championship. Instead, Chryst’s blessing turned out to be a disaster.

Mertz never fit comfortably into Chryst’s system, which was a hybrid of Wisconsin’s traditional power running game with the addition of some passing wrinkles tailored for Mertz’s ability.

After Mertz threw a perfect game in his starting debut, a blowout win over Illinois on prime-time national TV, he received gushing praise from superstars such as Patrick Mahomes. That game proved to be a curse as it set impossible expectations that were never met.

It’s not that Mertz was bad; rather, it was that he and the Badgers were not ever in sync. So, Mertz transferred to Florida for the 2023 campaign.

Last year, as Florida’s starter, Mertz posted the best numbers by far in his career. His QBR went from 135.0 in 2022 to 157.8 in 2023. Additionally, the TD/INT ratio jumped from 19/10 to 20/3. Finally, Mertz’s accuracy improved from a 57.3 completion percentage to 72.9.

By any measurement, Mertz had a career-best season as a Gator. But Mertz did not get adequate support on the ground (Florida ranked 73rd for rushing yardage) or from the Florida defense (79th for points allowed).

Thus, if Napier is to save his job, he’d seemingly have to stick with the redshirt senior transfer. 

Five Stars in Florida’s Eyes 

DJ Lagway stuck with Napier and Florida when many other top prospects bailed. Some would even say Lagway may have saved Napier’s job by sticking with the Gators. Certainly, Lagway salvaged the class and stopped the hemorrhaging of more top talent. 

By all accounts, Lagway is a multi-threat, do-it-all, can’t-miss prospect as the 2023 Mr. Texas Football and Gatorade National Player of the Year. But should Napier throw the true freshman to the SEC Wolves in 2024 with his job on the line?

Several analysts say Florida has the toughest schedule in the country. A repeat of the 2023 collapse is highly possible, as the Gators close by playing five teams who finished in the top 12 of last season’s AP Poll. Thus, Napier has much to consider.

Is it too dangerous to subject Lagway to that powerhouse gauntlet? Could Lagway’s confidence suffer permanent damage from the probable failure and pounding he would almost certainly take? Or would the veteran Mertz realistically do much better as the starter against the established powers?

Napier has been highly complimentary of Lagway’s quick learning. The first time Mertz makes a mistake, fans will scream for Lagway, putting more pressure on Mertz. Furthermore, there is always the worry that if the freshman doesn’t play, he could hit the portal in frustration.

From a self-preservation perspective, Napier could try and use Lagway as an alibi cover to get another year. Napier could justifiably say that he recruited Lagway, and that is why he deserves to stay for the shot at building a champion around him. It can also be inferred that Florida would likely lose Lagway to the portal if it fires the coach who successfully recruited him. 

Just Win Baby  

Florida fans remain among the most impatient of any group in the land. Napier has lost almost all goodwill from the fan base. Trying to hide behind Lagway in a desperate plea for the future won’t likely work. Nor will playing the proven veteran Mertz to protect Lagway going to be tolerated if it means losing.

No matter what Billy Napier does, he is doomed unless he wins.

Good luck with that. 

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