By Carlin Alford
In part one of this commentary, I made the case that the 2023 Colorado Buffaloes are neither an underachieving 10-2 team nor an overachieving 2-10 team. They were a 4-8 team. Though their accomplishments were extraordinary (under the circumstances), they were equally disappointing. It was something we’d never seen before. We couldn’t make heads or tails of the hype or the hate. All we had was Vegas…and they were basically right.
So, what about this coming season? Again, you can’t trust the hype or the hate. It’s too emotional, too visceral for a true football evaluation. Deion Sanders‘ persona is a trigger for both disgust and inspiration that clouds the real football talk. Can we cut through the noise to get a quasi-accurate look into the possible football performance of the Buffs this year? Yes. Put your emotions in a box and just read.
The Colorado Buffaloes will be a 9-win team for 4 reasons.
1: Time
No…Not “Prime Time”, but actual time together as a team in the Spring. The most successful FBS programs have tremendous Spring sessions. It’s the most critical time for Offensive Linemen to master complex blocking schemes and develop a cadence with the Quarterbacks. Technically, the Buffs had a dumpster fire of a Spring with the exit of half the scholarship roster. We can go back and forth about why that happened, but ultimately, there was a whole new team assembled, and they really didn’t meet each other until August. Continuity is huge, and simply having that time together will immensely improve their on-field performance, as it does with every other program.
2: The Roster
I won’t go through each transfer and recruit, but I’ve logged everyone so far, and based on the commitments against their needs, the Buffs have addressed all of their gaps. That’s the beauty of the transfer portal. It’s like a grocery store. If you have bread and peanut butter, you can just go grab some jelly and you have a sandwich. We outlined the huge gaps in Part 1, so here’s a general assessment of the personnel answers to those gaps.
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Coach Prime told the world that they would go get a new offensive line, and that’s what he did. He got experience, size, and maturity. Then he secured a talent in five-star Jordan Seaton. Despite having the worst OL in America the Buffs still had last year’s #7 ranked player in the portal, 6’8, 340 lb Savion Washington from Kent State. The only problem was that he was hurt most of the season. He’s coming back. Despite having a historically awful line in front of him and no dependable back to run in between the tackles, Shadeur Sanders still put up impressive passing numbers. The line doesn’t have to be great. They just have to be better. This alone affects time of possession, the run game and the health of their star QB.
Third downs were bad because they had no possession receivers. They were talented, but all 5’10 slot guys like Jimmy Horn Jr. and Xavier Weaver. They added a pair of 6’3, 210 lb flanks from the SEC and Big 12, along with two 6’5 Tight Ends to replace 6’1 Mickey Harrison.
They added one of the best kick/punt return guys in college, which was a problem last year. They brought in freak athletes at the edge on defense and some interior beef to stop the run. Adding depth at corner and safety was good as well. Linebacker is thin, but recent commitments show that it’s a priority. Prime even bolstered the QB depth with a couple of SEC players with size and pedigree.
Coaching
Detractors (haters) will scoff at this. Deion has evolved at every stop in his coaching career. Statistically, he improves the winning percentage year over year. Last year was no different. Four wins isn’t a lot, but it’s huge when you consider the one win by the program the year before. If you’re putting emotions aside and listening to every postgame press conference, Prime openly talks about his shortcomings and those of his staff. He was a first-year FBS coach that made mistakes. After the UCLA loss, he said in an interview on the field that he was glad the game was over so he could call Coach Kelly and get some insight. That’s a coach who is willing to evolve.
By my estimation, Coach Prime cost the team at least two wins (Arizona and Stanford). Those wins would have landed them a bowl bid. Based on his history, he won’t make those same mistakes again. Prime doesn’t have to win any games for them to be better. He just doesn’t need to lose any games because of his decision-making. That alone makes them an 8-win team.
4. New Conference
People poo-poo the patsy, but it worked for Michigan. It kind of worked for Oregon. In NASCAR, they call it “Track Position.” Get as high up on the grid as you can before things get tough with your schedule, and you can hold on to be there in the end to fight it out for the checkered flag.
Colorado ran a gauntlet this past season where six of the 12 teams they played were ranked at some point. The Big 12 schedule is easier but not a complete walk in the park. They will likely feature 3 to 4 Top 25 teams.
So, what is the 2024 version of Prime Time’s Buffaloes? Vegas has the early line at 6 wins. They were pretty much on point last season at 3.5 wins. Those 6 wins were projected prior to the portal commitments, so it will likely move to 7 wins. Now the question is whether they can overachieve to be a 9-10 win team.
Prime promised on Good Morning America that the Buffs will make the 12-team College Football Championship playoffs. They only need to get to 9 wins to do it. Conceivably, they can. The determining factor outside of team health will be Deion himself, and of course, that’s the way he wants it.
