As I was shaving, a thought came to me. Is Kalen DeBoer crazy? I think he might have to be a little nuts, and here’s why…
DeBoer is a great coach. He’s shown that at many different levels, but he had things pretty good at Washington. He exceeded expectations greatly, he was in line for another massive raise, and the administration would pretty much do whatever he wanted as they headed into the Big Ten. There was little recruiting pressure as the limitations of the Pacific Northwest without Phil Knight money were obvious and accepted. Honestly, he had it made for at least a few more years. And then he blew it all up.
DeBoer is now the face of Alabama football with, I’d say, about a 1% chance of meeting the expectations set down by Nick Saban. Okay, maybe 5% if I’m being generous. Look at these numbers…
Alabama’s worst season since 2008 was a 10-3 year in 2010 when Bama lost to ranked South Carolina, top 10 LSU, and eventual national champs Auburn. Since then? It’s three 11-2 seasons here and there, with every loss to a top 15 program and only one loss by more than 10 points (Oklahoma Sugar Bowl 2014).
So, do you think DeBoer will go 11-2 in his first season in the SEC? If he does, then that’s a disappointment based on Alabama’s previous success level. An 11-1 regular season and a loss in the SEC title game still means a playoff berth though, right? That’s likely, as we saw Alabama shoved into the playoff this season, but how much of that was because of Saban? Does Kalen DeBoer have the name recognition and cache to be given a spot where others would be left behind? The 12-team playoff helps him greatly as he’d be screwed with a four-team format but even low bar season of 11-2, he gets into the playoff, and if he loses, it’s the first three-loss season since 2010.
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And what about recruiting? Alabama has never finished below No. 3 in my personal rankings since 2008. Never below No. 3. That’s insane. The closest team to that number is Ohio State, who finished top five 12 times in those 17 years, which is also amazing but still well short of the top three year-in and year-out. What if DeBoer has a class that ranks No. 11? That will be the lowest Alabama ranking since Tim Tebow was being recruited out of high school.
Now imagine for a second DeBoer goes 10-2 or 9-3 in the regular season and doesn’t make the SEC title game. Alabama could still get in at 10-2 depending on their wins, as we expect three SEC teams each year at the least. But 9-3? Alabama hasn’t seen disappointment like that since Saban took over a mess from Mike Shula.
If, after three seasons, DeBoer is, say, 31-9 with a couple of playoff appearances, all is good, right? Nope. Ryan Day is 56-8 after five seasons following Urban Meyer at Ohio State with multiple playoff appearances, and the fans want him out of town. And Ohio State is a tough market, but not as tough as Alabama.
So maybe DeBoer is insane taking over for Nick Saban as the following seasons won’t be enough to appease fans and boosters — 11-3 year one, 10-3 year two, and 10-3 year three — that’s including three playoff appearances as well. It’s a high bar.
Alabama fans will jump in here and say we’ll take 31-9 and three playoff appearances. We’ll be patient, they’ll say. No, you won’t. Ask Florida or Ohio State fans after Meyer or USC fans after Pete Carroll, or Texas fans after Mack Brown. You reach a level of spoiled you just don’t understand and can’t comprehend. Everything in your life is skewed, and you don’t see it. That’s what legends can do to you. Heck, Cowboys fans are still expecting big things, and Jimmy Johnson left ages ago. Barry Switzer inherited a Super Bowl, but since then, it’s been horrible. But yet they still seek and expect that high they got. Winning is a drug, and Alabama fans are addicted. They just don’t know they are until it’s taken away even slightly.
Anyhow, I’m babbling by now, but you get the point. DeBoer is going to make a lot of money and all but he’s a bit crazy to take this job. The expectations couldn’t be higher, and the failure rate is almost assured. Following a legend is for the foolish, and as much as I like him as a coach, I think he’s nuts.
