By Alec Nederveld
When the Maize and Blue confetti fell in Houston a week ago, one begins to think about TCU, the Purple team that played for a National Championship a year prior. A team that shares a state with Houston and wasn’t close to returning in 2023. What happened to them? Can they make it back? Were they a one-year wonder?
It is not a surprise that Sonny Dykes team regressed. The Horned Frogs lost half of their starters and ranked 130th in Offensive returning production. Stars and leaders like Max Duggan, Quintin Johnston, Dee Winters, Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, and many more went to the NFL. Further, Broyles-winning Offensive Coordinator Garrett Riley went to Clemson.
You could also make a case for TCU being “lucky” even to get as far as they did. Dykes’ team went an incredible 6-1 in one-possession games. They benefitted from four injured opposing quarterbacks while playing the Frogs’ defense. This could have turned some of the close games.
In addition, if TCU had the same season as 2022 but in 2023, they likely wouldn’t make the playoffs. The talent pool was much stronger with six teams (Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, Michigan, Texas, and Washington) who would rank ahead of them. Lastly, The Horned Frogs were aided by two pick-sixes and a goal-line fumble in the 51-45 Semifinal win over Michigan. They likely won’t win without the Wolverines handing the game like that.
TCU WITH ANOTHER PICK-SIX 🤯
(via @Big12Conference)pic.twitter.com/woGCwHrope
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 31, 2022
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Coming off of that, 2023 was marred by inconsistency. The veteran team, who went 6-1 in one-possession games a year ago, followed up at 0-4 that year. Turnovers (and lack thereof) also made a huge difference. TCU was +6 in turnovers in 2022 and -7 in 2023. This included four picks in an ugly 14-27 loss to Iowa State and two goal-line interceptions from the 42-45 season-starting loss to Colorado.
You could also make an argument that TCU was unlucky in 2023. If they played Deion Sanders’ team any week other than Week One, game film would be available, and the defensive coaches could put up a better game plan up. Against West Virginia, a 24-21 loss, TCU had two field goals blocked with under 5:00 in the game.
West Virginia with the Field Goal BLOCK and the Mountaineers get a huge road win over TCU! West Virginia is now 4-1 on the year. #HailWV #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/sJiI0h6yCb
— CFB Saturday Slate w/ Mick N Bus (@CFB_SatSlate) October 1, 2023
Going into 2024, TCU has the 31st-ranked recruiting and 10th-ranked Transfer Portal class. I like Coach Dykes’ portal approach. There is a lot of talent in the Dallas-Fort Worth area who may want to come home and play for a Power Five school. Dykes doesn’t strike me as a passionate recruiter, so the more business-oriented ways of portal recruiting are also a good match.
It also helps fill the many Horned Frog holes. 1,200-yard rusher Emoni Bailey is off to the NFL. So are four starting linemen and First-Team All-Big 12 TE Jared Wiley.
Second-Team All-Big 12 DB Josh Newton and starters Jamoi Hodge and Mark Perry are also leaving TCU. So are both specialists, punter Jordy Sandy and kicker Griffin Kell.
There are more returning players than a year prior, but TCU still has a lot of talent that needs to be replaced. Leading tackler and sacker Namdi Obiazor will be back. So will Bud Clark, who’s led the Frogs in interceptions the last two seasons.
At Quarterback, Josh Hoover will get full control of the reigns. As a redshirt freshman, Hoover started later in the year after injuries to Chandler Morris, who has since transferred. While he has interception problems (nine picks in eight games with a pass attempt), he showed flashes with two 400-yard games. A full offseason of first-team reps with the same OC will also help him.
Interestingly, the Big 12 has seen plenty of teams come and go. Since Baylor went 12-2 and won the conference in 2021, the Bears have only won nine total games. Texas inexcusably had four losing seasons in eight years but has since bounced back to winning the Big 12 and making the playoffs. Even TCU before was forced to fire Gary Patterson, who was 181-79 in his 22 years at Fort Worth.
There is precedent for the Horned Frogs to bounce back or stay down and trigger another coaching change. What helps the recovery is a weaker conference without Texas and Oklahoma. There is no superpower, just a lot of variability and teams that can be good.
What hurts the rebuild is the schedule. While incomplete, TCU will have to play arguably the four best Big 12 teams, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Utah, with the latter two on the road. They also have to travel to new ACC schools, Stanford and SMU, in out-of-conference play.
I don’t see TCU returning to the National Championship in the upcoming future. They may make the 12-team playoff and perhaps win a game, but that is the ceiling and unlikely next season. I do, however, see a better record than 5-7.
I think TCU goes between 6-6 and 8-4. I see Josh Hoover having a very good season, boosted by portal receivers Eric McAlister (Boise State) and Braylon James (Notre Dame). The defense will also improve, but slightly. I still believe inconsistency will still plague the team. TCU will give you a lot of everything. Some exciting highs and some hard-to-swallow lows.
Past 2024, it’s difficult to predict, especially with a large emphasis on the Transfer Portal, but TCU should be a consistent bowl team with an occasional trip/contention of the Big 12 Title Game. If not, then a new man will coach the Horned Frogs.
