By Zain Bando
While Michigan is busy fighting for Jim Harbaugh’s employment and Ohio State continues to win, the Big Ten West is the Big Ten West.
Two weeks ago, it looked like Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin were on a collision course to Indianapolis.
Throw it in the trash…kind of.
Iowa may have clinched a share of the Big Ten West division title with a 22-0 shutout against Rutgers on Saturday. Still, by some miracle, every team (minus Purdue) is mathematically alive entering Week 12, which includes a five-way tie for second.
There are a lot of hypothetical clinching scenarios floating around across college football’s interwebs. Still, the reality is that this madness in November will be a thing of the past in a year, so enjoy it while it exists.
Below is every team’s most straightforward path to the championship game, and, as advertised, it gets a little weird.
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Iowa is the only team in the Big Ten West that has:
• less than 5 overall losses
• less than 4 conference losses
• a positive point differential (+17) in conference
• reached bowl eligibilitySavor this division for the next two weeks. pic.twitter.com/xBXOnK3yw8
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) November 13, 2023
Illinois (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten)
The Illini nearly had their season in shambles, but magic happened after John Paddock came in to relieve Ole Miss transfer quarterback Luke Altmyer nine days ago. On fourth-and-ballgame, Paddock found Isaiah Williams to stun the Minnesota Golden Gophers, 27-26, who were a near shoo-in for a Big Ten title berth with a few more wins.
Plain and simple, it didn’t happen.
The Illini returned home Saturday to face an Indiana Hoosiers team that needed three wins to clinch a bowl berth and maybe save Tom Allen’s tenure in Bloomington.
Early on, it looked that way. A 27-12 Indiana lead was followed by an avalanche of offense from both sides as Paddock and Indiana QB Brendan Sorsby put on an all-time duel, which saw Paddock, a walk-on from Ball State, get the last laugh.
Paddock put the finishing touches on his 507-yard performance in overtime, once again finding Williams for a 21-yard game-winning touchdown. Illinois prevailed 48-45, thus keeping their bowl hopes and conference title aspirations alive.
With two weeks to go, Illinois, which was thought by many to be a division title contender back in August, doesn’t control its destiny, but there is a path forward.
What is the path? – Illinois wins out, Iowa loses out, Nebraska wins one of its final two, Northwestern loses to Illinois, Wisconsin wins one of its final two games, Minnesota loses one of two, and Purdue loses one of two.
Although it’s a lot to unpack, Illinois controls a portion of this scenario, given that it would give Iowa one of its two losses to end the regular season. Nebraska must go .500 since the Illini lost in early October, which is the same for Wisconsin. Of course, given the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Wildcats, the Illini must win that game in Champaign to have a fighting chance. But if the Week 12 outcomes do not materialize, it’s all for nothing.
Iowa (8-2, 5-2 Big Ten)
Iowa completed one-half of its mission to return to Indianapolis for the first time in two years with a 22-0 shutout win over Rutgers. The Hawkeyes faced a similar dilemma at season’s end a year ago, failing to clinch their berth in Indianapolis with a let-down loss on Black Friday against the Cornhuskers, who had nothing but pride to play for. The loss allowed Purdue, which knocked off the Hoosiers the following afternoon, to backdoor its way in and play Michigan.
If the Hawkeyes don’t let history repeat itself, their road to the title game is straightforward.
Remaining schedule: vs. Illinois (2:30 p.m. CT, FS1) and @Nebraska 11/24 (11 a.m. CT, CBS)
What’s the path? – Just win one game. The Hawkeyes only have one divisional loss, to Minnesota and are two games above the next team.
Minnesota (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten)
Just two weeks ago, the Golden Gophers and P.J. Fleck looked to be in the driver’s seat to win the Big Ten West. Back-to-back losses have since followed what was a productive October, and although Minnesota has the tiebreaker over the Hawkeyes, it’ll need back-to-back wins and a Hawkeye collapse to have a chance at a berth in the title game.
It’s not impossible, but incredibly unlikely, making a bowl game the next best conclusion to a bizarre season.
Remaining schedule: @ Ohio State (3 p.m. CT, BTN) and vs. Wisconsin (11/25, 2:30 p.m. CT, FS1)
What’s the path? – Win out, scoreboard watch. Otherwise, a bowl game is in play with one win in Minnesota’s final two games.
Nebraska (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten)
A dark horse to win the division at the beginning of October, Nebraska finds itself in a tailspin after its three-game winning streak quickly turned into a two-game skid. The Cornhuskers must right the ship to give Matt Rhule a chance at a berth in the title game.
Luckily for Nebraska, despite the .500 record through 10 games, the end of its schedule provides winnable opportunities to make those chances a reality.
If Nebraska falters once more, however, the best it can hope for is an opportunity for a bowl game, which hasn’t been accomplished since 2016.
Remaining schedule: @ Wisconsin (6:30 p.m. CT, NBC) and vs. Iowa (11/24, 11 a.m. CT, CBS)
What’s the path? – Beat Wisconsin, hope Iowa loses to Illinois, and beat the Hawkeyes for the second-straight season.
Northwestern (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten)
Although it’s not a done deal for a return next season, first-year interim coach David Braun has kept his team competitive in nearly every game in 2023. Last week, he secured the Wildcats’ first Big Ten road win in over three years, dominating the Wisconsin Badgers and Luke Fickell 24-10.
Having won three of its last five and clinching its best season under a first-year coach since the early 20th century, Northwestern continues to stay the course.
Now on the verge of the unimaginable, the Wildcats, who returned starting quarterback Ben Bryant for the first time in a month, are one away from clinching a bowl berth for the first time since the 2020-2021 season, where they knocked off Auburn 35-19 in the Citrus Bowl.
But, although unlikely, the Wildcats also have a slim chance at the Big Ten West title. For it to materialize, however, they must win this weekend.
Remaining schedule: vs. Purdue (11 a.m. CT, BTN) and @Illinois (11/25, 2:30 p.m. CT BTN)
What’s the path? – Simple, yet complex. It all hinges on whether or not the Wildcats win out and Iowa loses out. Both have to happen, as the Wildcats lost to the Hawkeyes in Chicago in the game’s closing seconds.
Wisconsin (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten)
A loss to Northwestern killed Wisconsin’s chances to win the division outright, as it will now look for back-to-back wins in the season’s final two weeks to remain in the hunt.
The Badgers, like Nebraska, can also clinch a bowl berth with one more win, as they have lost three straight games since a 25-21 comeback win in Champaign on Oct. 21.
Remaining schedule: vs. Nebraska (6:30 p.m. CT, NBC) and @Minnesota (11/25, 2:30 p.m. CT, FS1)
What’s the path? – Beat Nebraska and beat Minnesota. Then root for Illinois and then Nebraska to end Iowa’s season.
No matter how the division plays out, Big Ten parity may be hard to come by in the coming years, so here’s to hoping one scenario knocks out another.
RIP, Big Ten Western Division.
