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Can Kiffin Cover in Athens? Will Penn State Continue to Pay Off? Best Week 11 Bets

The best wagering angles for all the top games in Week 11

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Oct 8
© Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

By Rock Westfall

Today, we offer the Investor Class Week 11 wagering angles for Saturday’s top games. 

Fox Big Noon Saturday Showdown in the Lions Den

Michigan (9-0, 6-0) at Penn State (8-1, 5-1) +5

12 p.m. ET, FOX

Michigan opened as a -5-point favorite, where the line has stayed at most books. Some oddsmakers have Michigan at -4.5.

At the onset of the week, there was more focus on Michigan’s off-field escapades than the actual field matchup.

This game at Beaver Stadium is Michigan’s first true test this season. Penn State’s defense ranks 3rd for points allowed compared to Michigan, ranking first. The Nittany Lions rank 6th for scoring compared to 5th for Michigan. Penn State head coach James Franklin has consistently faltered against elite competition at PSU.

Despite a 9-0 record, too much casual money floods the betting window on Michigan, driving down its value to four payouts in nine tries. Penn State has covered seven of its nine games this season.

Penn State failed to cover three of its last four as home dogs. The Wolverines got the money in six of their last seven games against the Nittany Lions. However, Michigan covered only five of its last 17 games as road chalk of seven points or less.

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Wildcats Go Hunting For Prime Buffalo

Arizona (6-3, 5-2) at Colorado (4-5, 1-5) +10

2 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network

Arizona opened as a -9-point favorite and was bet up to -10 at most books. Some books have the Wildcats at -10.5.

While everyone was staring at Colorado, Arizona became bowl-eligible. Last week, coach Deion Sanders changed Colorado’s play callers with no improvement for an offense that now ranks 65th overall and is paired with a defense that ranks 133rd in the nation.

Head coach Jedd Fisch has led the Wildcats to eight payouts in nine games. Colorado is 5-3-1 ATS with two consecutive payouts. 

Arizona has the momentum advantage in this spot. As the price indicates, the shine is off Colorado with the betting public.

Which Utah Team Will the Huskies Get?

Utah (7-2, 4-2) at Washington (9-0, 6-0) -9.5

3:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Washington opened as a -9.5-point favorite with mild fluctuation to Huskies -9 at some books.

Following its 35-6 home loss to Oregon, Utah bounced back with a 55-3 home win over Arizona State last week. Washington’s 103rd-ranked defense is a growing concern. And its 4th-ranked offense won’t find Utah’s 10th-ranked scoring defense easy to crack.

The two-time defending Pac-12 champion Utes have gotten the money in 14 of their last 17 games as a road dog. Utah covered five of its last seven against U-Dub, including four of their last five trips to Husky Stadium. Washington covered only one of its last six games as a home chalk of -10 points or less.

Is Mizzou Running on Fumes? 

Tennessee (7-2, 3-2) at Missouri (7-2, 3-2) +1

3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Tennessee opened as a -2-point favorite, with the line currently at Volunteers -1 at most books.

The Vols have surprised investors with their 21st-ranked scoring defense, which complements its 13th-ranked offense. Mizzou may be drained after last week’s hard-fought loss at Georgia.  Their metrics of 36th for scoring offense and 54th for scoring defense are less impressive.

Tennessee covered six of its previous eight as away chalk. The Vols got the money in their last four games against Missouri. But Mizzou got the cash in five of its last six as a home dog.

Georgia Still in the Red at Home 

Ole Miss (8-1, 5-1) at Georgia (9-0, 6-0) -11

7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Georgia opened as a -12-point favorite and was bet down to -11 at most books.

Kirby Smart‘s team is coming off a hard-fought home win against a good and tenacious Missouri team. The Bulldogs can’t let up with a dangerous game at Tennessee next week. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has moved the needle but has yet to bag a name-brand power win in his tenure.

The Rebs are 1-4 against the line as a road dog. Of great concern to the Investor Class is Georgia’s horrible board value as home chalk (4-10-1 ATS L15). These teams have not met since 2016.

The Ole Miss offense (14th scoring) could get through the back door.  

Defenseless Troy Boys Enter Autzen to Face Dominant Ducks 

USC (7-3, 5-2) at Oregon (8-1, 5-1) -15

10:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Oregon opened as a -14-point favorite and was bet up to -15 at most books.

This game has the wild card of USC changing defensive coordinators. Still, it is hard to imagine significant improvement and a testosterone injection for a soft unit that is among the nation’s worst. Especially against a rolling Oregon offensive unit ranked 2nd overall, 4th for passing, 10th for rushing, and first for scoring. Oregon’s 11th-ranked scoring defense should keep the Troy Boys in check.

Oregon has dropped only four of its last 18 games to the oddsmakers. USC failed to get the money in ten of its last 12 games, including seven straight. Oregon got the money in six of its last eight against USC, including three of their last four at Autzen Stadium.

USC is not likely to find Autzen Stadium a hospitable venue. But contrarian investors may want to step into the casual wisdom at an enhanced price. 

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