Earlier this week, I wrote about how Deion Sanders faces the very real possibility of striking out in Colorado. We thought that we would take a look at five other coaches and programs that are going to bottom out and not reach their potential. This is not a “who is on the hot seat” article, but merely which programs and coaches are either overvalued or otherwise won’t hit the mark.
#5 Mel Tucker
Michigan State
Checking in at number five are Michigan State and Mel Tucker. Tucker’s team started slow out of the gate last season, despite so much optimism. After two cupcake wins, reality set in, and they lost four Big Ten games in a row before finishing 5-7. Despite the poor performance last season, Tucker took the podium after practice on Monday with optimism. They open the season at home on September 1 against Central Michigan.
“I like what I am seeing out there so far,” Tucker said. “A lot of energy.”
The Spartans could not overcome a plethora of injuries last season on the defensive side of the ball and came in 111th in total defense. For a defensive genius like Tucker, that is simply unacceptable. Fans in East Lansing will not tolerate it again this season.
“We gotta keep guys on the field so we can get better,” Tucker told the media throng. “We have enough players to be good. We just don’t have enough good players to have a lot of guys hurt. I don’t think we have a shortage of playmakers, it’s going to be about execution and staying healthy.
“We’ve got to get the horses to the race. We’ve got to keep them out there.”
Tucker has to replace two-year starting quarterback Payton Thorne and the team’s go-to receiver in Keon Coleman, who left town via the transfer portal and bolted for Florida State.
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Tucker has a problem in that he is two weeks away from his opener, and he is still auditioning for the quarterback position. There is a three-man competition between Noah Kim, Katin Houser, and Sam Leavitt.
“The quarterbacks played well, competed,” Tucker said. “They all made plays – all three of them made plays.”
But, the question still remains, who will have their hands under center for the first snap of the season. If Tucker has not figured that out by now, he might never figure it out, and they could rotate all three, which is not a good thing.
Tucker even alluded to the fact that the possibility that they could have quarterback by committee.
“It’s possible,” Tucker said. “Yep.
Don’t expect any magic from the lads at East Lansing. They are going to underperform and potentially get their coach fired.
#4 Mario Cristobal
Miami
I am not calling for Coach Cristobal to be fired at the end of the season. This season is all about making progress. With the seventh-best recruiting class coming in, according to 247Sports, and the transfer portal being good to the Hurricanes, they need to show that they are better than the 5-7 record that they displayed last season.
The Hurricanes are not expected to do much this season, and their failure to get at least one vote for the AP Top 25 is a pretty good indication of that.
Last season was abysmal for Miami as they saw their projected first-round quarterback Tyler Van Dyke miss most of the season with a shoulder injury, and he was not himself for the 2022 campaign. Jake Garcia (who has since transferred to Missouri) and true freshman Jaccurri Brown split the reps and did not accomplish much in Van Dyke’s absence.
Miami also saw Xavier Restrepo, their slot receiver, injured early in the season and subsequently missing the lion’s share of 2023. Miami was not at full strength, and its record reflected it.
Cristobal won two Pac-12 titles at Oregon before coming to Miami and did so by building the trenches. Miami has completely revamped its offensive and defensive fronts during the offseason and is expected to be a much better team this season.
In comes a new offensive line anchored by former Alabama guard Javion Cohen, former UCF center Matt Lee and freshman five-star tackles Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola. They are Miami’s best hope in providing protection for Van Dyke, and for opening holes for their running backs, such as Henry Parrish, Jr., Chris Johnson, and Mark Fletcher.
When Cristobal came to Miami, he brought in Josh Gattis as his offensive coordinator and Kevin Steele and Charlie Strong as co-defensive coordinators. Cristobal, with his $80 million contract, is the only one still standing in Coral Gables.
In comes Shannon Dawson and his Air Raid offense, and Lance Guidry with his fiery Cajun style of coaching defense, and the fans are smiling once again. But how long it takes for that frown from last season to turn upside down is anyone’s guess.
In order for this season to be a true success, Miami has to compete hard in every game. They cannot lose at home to lower-tier teams such as Middle Tennessee anymore. They must bring back the swag from the days when they were winning national championships. They must win their rivalry game at Florida State and beat Texas A&M and Clemson at home.
If Miami does not win at least eight games, the fanbase will not be happy, and the planes calling for Cristobal’s termination might be flying over Hard Rock Stadium during the 2024-25 season.
# 3 Brian Kelly
LSU
LSU’s pre-season ranking is 5th in the AP Top 25, and the bottom line is that they are not a top-five team. There is no doubt about that.
The Tigers open the season on September 3 in Orlando against Florida State. They lost to the Seminoles last season due to a botched extra point at the end of the game. They will lose to Florida State again, and they will fall from their perch. The only question is how far they drop.
LSU has it pretty easy for the first half of the season, despite playing a South Eastern Conference schedule. Losses to Auburn and Florida at home will take the team from the Bayou out of the SEC and playoff pictures. Not-So-Big-Game Brian Kelly will fail once again to win the big games that exclude him from coaching in the bigger games.
The Tigers went 10-4 last season and lost some big games down the stretch that could have kept them out of the playoff hunt. They lost conference games to Tennessee, Texas A&M, who was a hot mess last season and got blown out by Georgia in the SEC title game.
Kelly, who resigned from Notre Dame after the 2021 season to coach the LSU Tigers, essentially won nothing at Notre Dame except for the right to get blown away by Alabama in the Orange Bowl for the National Championship. Don’t look for big things out of Kelly this season either, as the Tigers will win some games but will drop significantly in the rankings and not play for anything meaningful after the season.
I look for them to lose the season opener against Florida State and continue to struggle against the upper echelon of the SEC.
#2 Billy Napier
Florida
Billy Napier enters his second season at the helm of the Gator football team. Florida went 6-7 during Napier’s first season in Gainesville but is having as good a recruiting class as a coach could have prior to National Signing Day. He has gotten a lot of commitments from solid players, but those verbal commitments mean nothing until the ink is dry on the National Letters of Intent and are delivered to the school.
To think that Napier could not have a winning season with Indianapolis Colts starting quarterback Anthony Richardson and five other NFL draft picks must leave one scratching their head.
What is even more difficult to comprehend is how the Gators, who have been known to have attracted some pretty good quarterbacks that went on to get drafted in the NFL, ended up with former Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz as the winner of the off-season quarterback derby. They could not find anyone better?
This Gator team will underachieve in 2023-24. They will not post a winning record for the second year in a row and might qualify for a lower-tier bowl game.
#1 Jimbo Fisher
Texas A&M
Texas A&M is ranked 23rd in the AP Top 25 preseason poll. Don’t expect them to stay there. As the season develops, they will drop out of the poll and have no one but themselves to blame.
When Jimbo Fisher arrived on campus in 2018, fans and boosters expected him to win a national championship in College Station, just as he did at Florida State four years prior.
Fisher started off hot as the Aggies won three straight bowl games at the beginning of his tenure.
Then, going into year four, the bottom fell out. Fisher went from being anointed to almost getting fired. Had it not been for a $77 million buyout, he might have already been terminated. His buyout will not drop below $50 million until 2027,
TAMU was the winner of the off-season championship coming into last year, as they were handing out NIL deals like hotcakes. They had an incredible signing class in 2022. However, they still finished a mere 5-7 and just 2-6 in SEC play.
Despite having their best recruiting class ever, they could not put a product on the field that could compete and missed Bowl Season for the second year in a row. This season they have to learn how to take a group of individuals and get them to play as a team with chemistry and translate their recruiting classes into victories on the field.
The Aggies played adequately overall on defense, but their run defense was as porous as an old sponge. TAMU led the nation in pass defense in 2022, and some of the pieces return. Eight starters remain from last season, and that makes defensive coordinator DJ Durkin a very happy coach.
Senior Demani Richardson returns and joins fellow defensive back Jardin Gilbert at the safety position. Durkin believes that he has a solid cornerback duo in Bryce Anderson and UNC transfer Tony Grimes at corner.
Fisher tried to rebuild the offense in the off-season by hiring Bobby Petrino as his new offensive coordinator. The offense never showed up on gameday.
Passing yards were few in 2022, and TAMU ranked 101st in scoring offense, averaging a mere 22.8 points per game. That is going to have to increase, or Jimbo will be terminated, no matter the cost.
TAMU was named Sports Illustrated’s Most Disappointing College Football Teams in 2022. Perhaps that underachieving is a threshold reason why about 30 players flocked to the transfer portal once the season was over.
Aside from the roster purge at Colorado, Texas A&M led the country in most transfers lost from the 2022 season. However, there is room for optimism, and none of the starters transferred, as 19 of the 22 starters on offense and defense return. The Aggies lost three players to the NFL Draft.
In the first four weeks, the Aggies play two big games, at Miami and at home against Auburn. Those two games, and how well they compete in them, will set the tone for the 2023-24 season.
Don’t expect miracles at College Station this season, as the Aggies will continue to underachieve. The question is will they do enough to save Fisher’s job? You can bet that the Aggie Boosters will not want to shell out close to $80 million on a buyout, so something has to give. TAMU plays a few cupcakes, but aside from that, they play a difficult SEC schedule and still have to face Alabama. I look for A&M to go 6-6 at best but qualify for a lower-tier bowl game.
Whether that is enough to buy Fisher a return engagement at College Station remains to be seen.
