Now that the Pac-12 has been looted and picked clean by the Big Ten and Big XII, many college football experts are looking at the ACC as the next conference to crumble and for the SEC to be the big winner in the next wave of the realignment sweepstakes.
Rumors are swirling that Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina are going to be the first to test the waters and bring legal action if necessary to move out of the conference and break the much-discussed Grant of Rights.
The State of North Carolina
The State of North Carolina will be a hotly contested battleground between the SEC and the Big Ten. With two major programs in UNC and Duke, the SEC will come with open arms full of cash for the two programs that have real solid football and basketball programs, something that many other schools do not enjoy.
Paul Finebaum has said openly on the Dan Patrick Show that they are both SEC-bound. Take that for whatever it is worth, but it makes sense. UNC drew 17 million viewers for its basketball National Championship Final with Kansas two seasons ago. That’s exactly in line with last year’s football National Championship Game between Georgia and TCU. That game drew 17.2 million viewers.
With the SEC willing to expand, upon information and belief, to 20 schools, these two appear to be a shoo-in for the SEC.
UNC and Duke are attractive invites, but the cream of the ACC is clearly Florida State right now. Florida State had a great bounce-back 2022 season and currently has the number four recruiting class for 2024. The former women’s only school in Tallahassee is becoming a force to be reckoned with once again.
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Florida State Seminoles
During a recent Board of Trustees meeting, FSU president Richard McCullough stated that he was dissatisfied with the current media revenue share that it is getting from the ACC. McCullough talked about the value of the FSU brand, which could be the most consumed football brand in the conference. The Seminoles finished the 2022-23 season ranked 12th in the country and averaged over three million viewers a week.
The SEC already has a footprint in the state of Florida as the University of Florida Gators play to the east of Tallahassee. Adding FSU would be a natural and logistical move for the SEC as they look to obtain the crown jewel of the ACC. The SEC can be counted on making a tremendous offer to stave off the Big 10, who would love to poach the greatest brand in the ACC.
For the time being, however, the SEC is downplaying the importance of grabbing the Garnet and Gold.
“I have been clear that we are focused on our growth to 16 [teams] as we transition Oklahoma and Texas into the conference,” SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey said to ESPN’s Heather Dinich. “Further expansion has not been a central topic in the SEC other than regularly updating our campus leadership on national developments.
Sankey added, “We are proud of the stability the SEC provides our membership and incredibly excited about our future.”
Florida State trustee Justin Roth has already preached to the Board that he would like to have an exit strategy put together in 12 months. That is not to be interpreted as meaning FSU would play an SEC schedule in 2024, but the road map to enter the conference would be put in place.
Some experts have FSU going to the Big Ten, but that is not going to happen. The Big Ten television contract with Fox Sports does not seem to be too appealing.
When the dust settles and the gloves are taken off, the SEC will win over the Seminoles based on the SEC’s relationship with ESPN and its subsidiary networks, such as the SEC Network.
Commonwealth of Virginia
If the ACC goes by the wayside and the member schools are up for grabs to the highest bidder, Virginia and Virginia Tech are awfully attractive based on their rich history as upscale academic institutions.
The Big Ten and the SEC are both lacking footprints in the Commonwealth of Virginia and would like to break into that market.
The University of Virginia is a very attractive asset in that many consider the school to be a “Public Ivy” and is a member of the AAU. Virginia is widely considered a top-25 school academically and has won 17 national titles since the turn of the century. Look for the Big Ten to win the battle of Charlottesville and for Virginia to become a package deal with Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech is an up-and-coming program and is on the rise with new coach Brent Pry, but has not won a national title in any varsity sport. They are one of three such Power 5 conference teams to wear that collar.
The Big Ten is just too powerful academically for the schools to ignore. Virginia will push for both schools to join the Big Ten, even if on academic prestige alone, and join the Big Ten Academic Alliance.
Miami Hurricanes
The Big 10 is not going to accept being shut out of the state of Florida. They are going to make a big push to get the University of Miami, a small private school in Coral Gables that is on the way back to national prominence in football and made the Final Four in college basketball last spring.
Miami Athletic Director Dan Radakovich has been working with the ACC on a new revenue distribution model. Look for Miami to stay in the ACC unless the conference implodes and is raided by the remaining Power 5 conferences.
Should the ACC be gone by the way of the PAC-12 and Miami is forced to make a move, it should be to the Big Ten. The Big Ten will love the Miami market, and its member institutions will enjoy playing in Miami every other year. Miami is a top academic school and was recently tapped as an AAU.
Clemson Tigers
The next question is what to do with perennial ACC and National Champion Clemson? Look for Clemson to follow Florida State in their exit strategy. The Tigers will stick with their southern roots and join the SEC. While FSU is loud and vociferous in announcing its discontent with the ACC, Clemson is quietly doing its homework and working with Florida State’s exit model to make its break from the conference.
Clemson joining the SEC will also make its in-state rivalry with South Carolina stronger and more meaningful. With Shane Beamer, the Gamecocks are a program on the rise, and that rivalry with Clemson could loom large in the Tigers’ decision to join the SEC.
Finally, Notre Dame
Notre Dame is perhaps the biggest wild card in this mess as they are not a member of the ACC in football but play in the ACC in other sports such as basketball, baseball, etc. They are one of the biggest brands in the United States. Their TV deal will be much greater than any sum of money that they can earn as a full-fledged member of a conference. Notre Dame will remain independent and not join a conference unless they find it mandatory for the success of the school.
If they have to make a move, it will be to the Big Ten, where there are familiar opponents in Michigan and USC, academic prestige, and plenty of good competition for their athletic program.
