The final moments of the Pac-12 will be one of heartbreak. And it is heartbreak that could have been avoided.
The winners from the Pac-12 mass exodus are teams that found new homes, with Oregon and Washington landing in the Big Ten and with a near-certain approval Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah will join Colorado in the Big XII.
Who were the losers from the fallout?
#5: George Kliavkoff
We will never know if Klaivkoff deserves the full brunt of the blame for the ultimate demise of the Pac-12. Was he handcuffed in his actions? Was he really that inept? Or perhaps both? Klaivkoff will forever be associated as the failed leader of the sinking ship that couldn’t keep the conference together, one that was the most accomplished in NCAA history.
#4: The ACC
If Commissioner Jim Phillips hasn’t been watching, he better review the events that led up to the Pac-12’s demise. The Pac-12 had a giant malcontent that it ignored in Southern California, and while the Pac-12 never thought Southern Cal would leave. But when the Trojans got the opportunity, they pulled the trigger. And in doing so, they took the beating heart out of the conference.
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The rest of the Pac-12 learned what their true value was. The ACC has a malcontent in Florida State. It has a bad network deal that Phillips predecessor John Swofford negotiated, Phillips has to find a way for harmony, or he got a great preview of his fate.
#3: Cal Bears
Some might notice that Stanford will not be on this list. I feel the Cardinal will be okay both financially and athletically as an independent and wait for the Big Ten invite that will most likely happen when their current TV deal with FOX/NBC/CBS expires.
I worry more about their rival, Cal.
If you look into the financials of Cal athletics, it gets really scary for that program. According to a San Francisco Chronicle report from 2013:
Stadium debt already absorbs 20 percent of intercollegiate athletics’ annual income, or roughly $18 million of its $89 million budget. And that pays only the interest. Cal won’t start paying down the principal until 2032, when its yearly payments rise to $26 million, then $37 million, before tapering off in 2051. After a brief respite, Cal will owe a lump sum of $82 million in 2053 alone. Then it will have six decades to pay off the final 17 percent, or $75 million.
Very early reports indicate media revenues for Cal will be less than $10 million, and in the fiscal year of 2022, the Cal program had $118 million in revenue with $105 million in expenses.
I worry more about the financial state of the Cal program unless the Big Ten decides to add them as well sometime in the future.
If the Big Ten never calls for Cal, I fear for the long-term security for all of Cal Athletics. Would the school be willing to bail out a potentially debt-crippled athletic department? They have always prided themselves on being a school that, again like their rival Stanford, puts academics first.
#2: San Diego State and SMU
I feel this is more for San Diego State than SMU, but SMU did get a serious look from the Pac-12. In those exploratory meetings, the Mustang program expressed the willingness to invest serious financial resources into athletics.
While the Mustangs lost a little bit, San Diego State got royally screwed, and that is putting it nicely for print.
The Aztec athletic department virtually all told they would be joining the Pac-12. They bought in hook, line, and sinker, going the full distance of submitting a resignation to the Mountain West and getting a $17 million exit fee.
At this point, we have to assume San Diego State will be returning to the Mountain West and try to negotiate out of the $17 million exit fee or any application fees.
#1: Oregon State and Washington State
While in both press releases, both Oregon and Washington committed to long-term relationships with their fierce in-state rivals, it leaves both programs with a lot of uncertainty about what to do in the short term.
The Big XII, I don’t feel, wants to expand to 18. They may sometime in the future, but that’s further off than either of these schools would like. And I don’t think the brands of Oregon State and Washington State are strong enough to be independent in this climate.
Is the Mountain West a viable option for these programs? When you consider there is a $34 million exit fee, you have to assume that if a power conference wants to add Washington State and Oregon State, it complicates things for them.
I only feel like the Big Ten will add these two if there is political pressure or if the ACC gets rock solid again and no one leaves. The Big Ten eventually ending up with 20 teams would even things nicely and give the Big Ten the classic Pac-8 division.
You have to feel for the athletes that did nothing wrong and who go from competing against some of the best amateur athletes from some of the most prestigious schools to a completely unknown future.
These two are unfortunate examples of the bad parts of realignment as they really don’t have a clean home to go to and now complete unknowns.
