Matt Campbell
Why does he get the love?
Matt Campbell rose fast for his work at Toledo guiding the Rockets to three 9-win seasons with two MAC division championships.
At age 37, Campbell earned his first Power 5 job with Iowa State in the Big XII. He took over for Paul Rhoads who was fired after his sixth consecutive losing season.
Campbell quickly returned Iowa State back to respectability winning the program’s first bowl in 2017 since the 2009 Insight Bowl and winning a pair of Big XII Coach of the Year honors in 2017 and 2018.
In 2020, Campbell elevated Iowa State during the COVID-19 pandemic season leading the Cyclones to a first-place finish in the Big XII standings and an appearance in the Big XII Championship Game.
Iowa State was selected to play Pac-12 Champion Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, the program’s first major classified bowl game (Iowa State did play in the 1977 Peach Bowl but the Peach Bowl wasn’t classified as a major bowl at the time).
Running back Breece Hall had 136 of Iowa State’s 228 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns leading the Cyclones to the program’s biggest bowl win 34-17.
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During Campbell’s time at Iowa State, he has developed great talent in quarterback Brock Purdy, two-time Consensus All-American in running back Breece Hall, and a pair of three-time First Team All-Big XII selections in wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson and Will McDonald IV.
Why isn’t he as good as his record indicates?
After Campbell’s rapid rise, he wasn’t able to capture the momentum of his high stock. Iowa State is 11-14 since the Fiesta Bowl win.
When you look at Iowa State recruiting, Campbell has only one season in the Top 40 since 2020. You can also surmise his flirtations with other schools doomed his class of 2021 which finished 61st overall.
In 2021, Iowa State was a hard-luck team losing all six games by 10 points or less, the cruelest being the Top 10 matchup against Iowa for the Cy-Hawk Trophy.
ESPN College Gameday was in Ames for the contest and while Iowa State had two-to-one advantages on Iowa in first downs and total yards, it was four turnovers by the heart and soul of the squad Brock Purdy and Breece Hall that doomed Iowa State.
That 2021 squad returned stars such as Purdy, Hall, McDonald IV, tight end Charlie Kolar, and linebacker Mike Rose to falter as badly as they did following a monumental 2020 season raises eyebrows.
Last year, while Iowa State was able to win the Cy-Hawk for the first time since 2014, the Cyclones only won a single Big XII conference game and finished 4-8.
In a way, I am going to marginalize the 2020 Fiesta Bowl triumph over Pac-12 champion Oregon. The COVID season was completely turned upside down unless you are Alabama, and Oregon backdoored into the Pac-12 Championship Game in a shortened season. They lost to rival Oregon State at Reser Stadium and gave California their only win of the season.
Campbell took advantage of the situation. So while you can’t entirely take it away from him, you can take away the weight you throw behind it. In the Cy-Hawk Game Campbell is 1-5 against Iowa. Even in the disaster that was the Paul Rhoads tenure in Ames, he won three times against Iowa.
Overall, Campbell is 10-19 in games against ranked FBS opponents. That doesn’t move the needle. At this point, Campbell is beginning to max out the credit he built up with his Oklahoma upsets and the 2020 campaign.
Jimbo Fisher
Why does he get the love?
Fisher is one of the most successful disciples of the Nick Saban coaching tree, having served as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at LSU for their 2003 national championship team.
The next leap in Fisher’s career was taking a similar position at Florida State under legend Bobby Bowden. Some folks may have felt Bowden was forced out, but all was forgiven by the immediate success Fisher had with Florida State.
Between the 2010 and 2014 seasons, Florida State won three ACC Championships, appeared in the inaugural College Football Playoff, and guided Florida State to its first national championship in 2013.
The 2013 Florida State Seminoles are amongst the greatest teams of all time that outscored opponents 723 to 170 in 14 games averaging 51.6 points per game while allowing 12 points per game.
After significant internal friction with Florida State administrators, he found a new home at Texas A&M.
Why isn’t he as good as his record indicates?
A&M is banking on the 2010 to 2014 Fisher but when you look under the hood there is a lot to be desired. As I mentioned in my recruiting article, recruiting has never been a problem for Fisher as he has since the Class of 2015, seven Top 10 classes, six of which were in the Top 6 in the country including his iconic 2022 class, and a low water mark of No. 15.
With that sort of talent, you would assume Fisher would have an impeccable record.
Yet, Fisher is 64-33 during that stretch. The other programs that have been recruiting at the same level during that time are Alabama (who has gone 103-10 since 2015) and Georgia (91-18 since 2015), Fisher is simply not maximizing his talent.
Against ranked opponents, Fisher has some notable highlights upsetting No. 1 Alabama in 2021 and No. 5 LSU last season, overall a 15-19 record from 2015 isn’t exactly elite level.
Fisher is being paid to produce results similar to modern dynasties under Nick Saban and Kirby Smart, he simply isn’t coming close even though he has recruited at the level at Florida State and Texas A&M.
Mike Gundy
Why does he get the love?
Mike Gundy has become the elder statesman in the Big XII having been with Oklahoma State since 2005 as head coach.
The Cowboys have achieved great heights under Gundy either winning a BIg XII division or finishing in the top two in three seasons. His 2011 season was his opus, winning the Big XII, going 5-0 against ranked teams, which included a win in Bedlam against No. 10 Oklahoma, and No. 4 Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl.
His five New Year’s Six bowl appearances are the most of any Oklahoma State coach since World War II.
Gundy gained extreme notoriety for his now famous “I’m A Man” rant.
Why isn’t he as good as his record indicates?
If Gundy was telling the truth that he doesn’t read the paper, he might not read this section.
While Gundy’s 156-75 record with bowl wins in 11 of 17 bowls speaks volumes in the Oklahoma State waters, you look at Oklahoma State schedules and you begin to scratch your head.
During Gundy’s tenure, Oklahoma State has beaten three out-of-conference Power 5 opponents in the regular season with winning records: 2009 Georgia (8-5), 2013 Mississippi State (7-6), and 2016 Pitt (8-5), with all three at home (Houston is now a Power 5 team but they weren’t when Oklahoma State played them).
It always seems like Oklahoma State’s schedule consists of a Non-FBS opponent, a really bad FBS opponent, and a middle-tier opponent they will overwhelm. The last time Oklahoma State really challenged itself against an out-of-conference Power 5 opponent was Florida State in 2014.
Without Oklahoma State challenging itself, Mike Gundy isn’t “the man” he ranted about to come after if you are anyone reputable.
When you listen to Gundy talk about the Bedlam Series against Oklahoma, he let it slip when he referred to the status of the game as ‘history.’ While he did recover with the cliché coach speak of loving traditional rivalries, he surely won’t miss his almost automatic loss to Oklahoma (he’s 3-15 against the Sooners).
During Gundy’s career in 46 games against Power 5 opponents who win 10 or more games, the Cowboys are 13-33 in those games.
If Gundy is reading, I am almost 40, a man, and I just came after you.
Chip Kelly
Why does he get the love?
One word: Oregon.
In his abbreviated tenure in Eugene, from 2009 to 2012 Kelly led the Ducks to a 46-7 overall record, with three Pac-12 championships and an appearance in the 2010 BCS National Championship Game.
His offenses were revolutionary with their uptempo, no-huddle attack that averaged over 43 points per game during his tenure. With Kelly being viewed as an offensive innovator, most feel last season’s flirtations with greatness are a start with UCLA.
His major recruiting victory flipping five-star quarterback Dante Moore from Oregon is another indicator UCLA is trending up.
Why isn’t he as good as his record indicates?
While Kelly has rehabilitated UCLA with back-to-back bowl berths, the question is going to be how UCLA transitions to the Big Ten when it joins the league in 2024. Kelly never was exposed at Oregon, he enjoyed significant talent advantages and routed a lot of teams.
The teams Kelly struggled against – or even lost to – were teams who had equal talent or the coaching on the other side was on par.
When he took the UCLA job, Jim Mora Jr. didn’t exactly leave a bare cupboard. The former Falcons coach had led the Bruins to bowl appearances in five of his six seasons. UCLA tanked and it took nearly three seasons to turn a corner that most elite coaches enhance almost immediately, especially in the fertile recruiting territory that UCLA is in.
Lincoln Riley
Why does he get the love?
Riley is simply “The Quarterback Whisperer” in college football. He attracts the top quarterback talent and molds them into the sport’s best.
During Riley’s tenures at Oklahoma and Southern California, he has molded three Heisman Trophy quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams.
His potent offenses are a crowd pleaser. For his career, his teams have averaged 43.2 points per game and have never finished lower than No. 8 in scoring offense nationally.
Why isn’t he as good as his record indicates?
The low-hanging fruit on Riley is his poor defenses.
Five of his six defenses have finished in team scoring 60th or worse with three of those being 80th or worse, including finishing 101st in scoring defense in 2018.
But beyond the defensive issues, when you put a microscope on Riley’s offenses, you begin to find imperfections, especially against top defenses.
Since 2018, Riley’s teams are 6-7 against Power 5 teams that finish in the Top 30 in scoring defense. In eight of those games, the opponents outgain Riley’s vaunted offenses.
The offensive depreciation is also noticeable as Riley’s teams average nearly 14 fewer points per game against these defenses than off of his career average (43.2 points per game average in his career to 29.8 points per game in these 13 games).
To boot, Riley’s offensive numbers can be misleading. His teams have tended to feast to an extreme amount on below-average defenses.
In six seasons as a head coach, Riley has faced 31 opponents that finished 80th or worse in scoring defense, including 19 who finished 100th or worse.
Last season, Riley’s Trojans faced six opponents that finished 90th or worse in scoring defense with five being 100th or worse. (Rice, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado, and UCLA.)
The combination of playing poor defense themselves and playing frequently against poor defenses always seems to come back to bite Riley’s teams in the biggest of moments.
