This time of year, we’re starting to get bombarded with playoff and Heisman odds for the upcoming college football season. What we aren’t hearing about yet are the Group of 5 teams. Who’s that under-the-radar sleeper, what draft prospects might stand out, and what hot coach might get that jump ship after this season? Here are five teams I think could surprise this year and why.
UTEP
After winning five games combined in Dana Dimel’s first three seasons, the Miners have won 12 in the past two (seven in 2021 and five in 2022). I look for the momentum to keep going here. Dimel is a solid coach who has the Miners winning nearly all the games that they should win, and with a favorable schedule, UTEP could get another seven-win season and a bowl appearance.
This may not seem like much, but considering the depths that the program had sunk to, Dimel’s team could easily put together another good season. Getting WR Tyrin Smith back after he initially left for Texas A&M in the transfer portal is very fortunate, as he has a great rapport with returning QB Gavin Hardison.
50 days until UTEP football kickoff ?
UTEP started the 2021 season 6-1 to become bowl eligible. Then, they lost 5 of their last 6 games, including the loss in the New Mexico Bowl.
Can UTEP break the 56-year streak this season and finally win a bowl game?#MinerTalk pic.twitter.com/qpmNIehvuT
— Adrian Broaddus (@AdrianBroaddus) July 7, 2023
North Texas
Maybe no FBS team has had a more bizarre offseason than the Mean Green. First, they made the conference title game and a bowl game, which few expected. Next, they fire head coach Seth Littrell after seven seasons and hire Eric Morris without having an athletic director in place.
But I’m convinced things have calmed down and the Morris hire is one I like. The former Incarnate Word head coach comes to Denton after a year as OC with Washington State in between. A former Mike Leach player, he runs the Air Raid like his old coach did, and he should be a great mentor for ULM transfer Chandler Rogers, who is a great fit in this offense. The non-conference games don’t look easy but once AAC play starts I like UNT to challenge for a bowl spot.
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There was a lot to like about what North Texas showed in its first spring practice under new coach Eric Morris. https://t.co/37ky4fbD8t
— DentonRC (@DentonRC) July 5, 2023
Memphis
Few people have been as critical of Ryan Silverfield as me, I’ll own that. Memphis should be a top five G5 program annually and that just hasn’t happened since he succeeded Mike Norvell.
This year though, I think the Tigers could return to that level. Memphis returns Seth Henigan at QB and brought in a multitude of guys from the portal. Blake Watson, a RB who’s joining the Tigers from Old Dominion, highlights this group. He and 2022 leading rusher Jevyon Ducker look to form a formidable backfield tandem. Looking at the AAC schedule this year I could see Memphis winning nine games. That would be a heck of a bounce back after back-to-back .500 regular seasons.
● QB Spotlight ●
Seth Henigan – Memphis
• Henigan is one of the top returning QBs in the #AAC and is an absolute gunslinger. In his career he's thrown for 6,881 yards 47 TDs and rushed for 434 yards 4 Touchdowns. pic.twitter.com/eAtSm5ixOT
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) June 26, 2023
Toledo
No conference saw more attrition from the transfer portal than the MAC. Several teams saw major departures and will have trouble replacing key losses. Toledo is not one of these teams.
Keeping 2nd team All-MAC QB Dequan Finn was vital. Finn threw for 23 TD’s and ran for 9 more to lead the Rockets to the MAC title. I like them to repeat that feat in 2023, something no MAC team has done since 2015. Jason Candle has been very consistent over his 7 years in charge, never finishing with a losing record. I expect his name to be thrown about for P5 head coaching openings come next offseason after another successful season.
Behind head coach Jason Candle, the Toledo coaching staff boasts the consistency, excellence, and experience to ensure that the Rockets can challenge for a second consecutive #MACtion title #GoRocketshttps://t.co/9TKNmT4vmC
— College Sports Network (@CFN365) July 3, 2023
Marshall
Charles Huff is another coach who may get the call from a P5 program next offseason. The former Nick Saban assistant is doing good things in Huntington, namely running the ball and dominating the trenches.
Rasheen Ali was an elite RB in 2021 who was injured last year. Khalan Laborn made sure the Herd didn’t lose a beat on his way to a 1,300 yard season. While Laborn is now in the NFL, Ali is back in the fold and I think he is the difference between finishing third in 2022 and winning the Sun Belt East this year.
#CFB returns in 22 days
RB Rasheen Ali – Marshall pic.twitter.com/CiktZjhtqd
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) August 5, 2022
