Every year around this time we talk about coaches on the hot seat, who might get fired, and what schools are looking for a new boss. Today we explore the opposite. That is, 10 coaches who have built up enough good graces and equity to keep their job in the hypothetical scenario they have a 4-win season. But it doesn’t stop there, to make this list a little more thoughtful and meaningful I added a few parameters. A– the coach must be entering, at the earliest, year 4 at his current school. New coaches are, rightly, given more leeway so we want established veterans here. B– “The Whales” will not be included. Saban, Smart, and Swinney are all multi-title-winning coaches and all make the list, but that’s too easy. Let’s have some fun and go deeper. C– They cannot have signed a contract extension since the 2022 season began (Note- this eliminated four coaches who were in the running to make the list: Mark Stoops, Jason Candle, Jonathan Smith, and P.J. Fleck). Here are the ten names I landed on of coaches who could go 4-8 this year, worse in some cases, and not have to worry about losing their job.
Kirk Ferentz, Iowa
This list couldn’t start anywhere else for a few reasons. Ferentz took a lot of heat this offseason for the offensive ineptitude of the Hawkeyes, and rightly so, but he also got zero of the credit for a historically good defense. Any, and every, head coach is responsible for both units for better or worse. The Hawkeyes haven’t missed a bowl game in over 10 years and he’ll get a career win 200 sometime in 2024, that’s a serious accomplishment. The powers that be, namely boosters and financial supporters in Iowa City, have his back and he isn’t going anywhere if the Hawkeyes have a stinker of a year. I rarely call out people and say they’re wrong……those who have said Kirk Ferentz is on the hot seat this season are wrong.
Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky
Helton has quietly built one of the most consistent and visually pleasing teams in America. The Hilltoppers have won 9 games in 3 of his 4 seasons and went to a bowl game in all 4. Their spread, pass-happy style makes them a fan favorite to watch, in addition to being attractive for transfers via the portal. A threat to win Conference USA, they look like a team with staying power in the G5. Helton has the backing of all at WKU after winning 32 games in 4 years, with an impressive 23-8 conference record. One down year won’t affect his job status if it happens.
Dave Clawson, Wake Forest
Clawson took over at Wake in 2014 and went 3-9 his first two seasons. He has made a bowl game every year since then. The turnaround he and his staff have done at what was one of the worst P5 programs has been remarkable. The slow mesh, or Clawfense, is a difficult offense to game plan for and makes up for the talent discrepancy between the Deacons and their ACC rivals. Few coaches currently in the game have brought success to a poverty-stricken program like Clawson has. Clawson easily makes this list, and rightly so.
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Kyle Whittingham, Utah
Whittingham is a guy I’ve praised over and over for the success and stability he’s brought to Salt Lake City and his inclusion on this list speaks to that. He enters season #19 in 2023 having succeeded Urban Meyer for the 2005 Fiesta Bowl and never looked back. In that time he’s won 154 games and led the Utes through the transition from the Mountain West to the Pac-12. He’s never had a season, outside the 5 game covid season, with less than 5 wins. He looks to be one of the few coaches at this level who will get to write his own ending.
Dana Dimel, UTEP
If you talk to college football coaches, Dimel is one of the most highly thought of and respected men in the game. Previously he had a successful stint at Wyoming and a less successful one at Houston but he has UTEP trending in the right direction, and that says something. One of the least successful FBS teams in recent years, Dimel started off with back-to-back 1-11 seasons, followed by 3, before winning 7 and 5 the last two. Winning 12 games in two years at UTEP is no easy feat and the Miner administration and boosters know it. Dimel has done a heck of a job and another 1-11 season would see him keep his job, not that this is likely to happen.
https://twitter.com/zach_barnett/status/1640357471272292352
Brent Brennan, San Jose State
In Brennan, we have another coach who took over a historically bad program and has brought increased wins, success, and fan support. After a combined 3 wins in his first 2 years, Brennan has won either 5 or 7 in every season, highlighted by a 7-1 season in 2020. The 2023 Spartans have a tough non-conference schedule, playing both USC and Oregon State, but another trip to a bowl game looks possible. Either way, Brennan has built up leeway in San Jose and isn’t at risk of being let go.
https://twitter.com/21_cfb/status/1659694612196524032
Matt Campbell, Iowa State
Campbell has an impressive 81-57 record as a head coach at Toledo and Iowa State. He had been mentioned as a possibility for top-level jobs before. After the Cyclones regressed in 2022 this won’t happen right now but it may down the road. Iowa State had been very consistent with a high ceiling before the 4-8 season this past year, in which they had to replace many longtime contributors. They had been winning between 7 and 9 games a year for a good stretch while playing the brand of football that only a Midwesterner could love. His teams got in street fights, negated opponent advantages, and even in losses always kept the games close. Campbell had a Mulligan year in 2022, so to speak, I think he could have another one in 2023 and keep his job.
Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
I had mentioned before that Kyle Whittingham is one of the few men in this profession who can write his own ending, Pat Fitzgerald is another. The 8 win season every couple of years is enough to keep his job, and frankly, it should be. Fitzgerald is Mr. Northwestern. He played LB there, he’s coached there since 2001 and became the head coach in 2006. Since then he’s won 110 games at the toughest Big 10 school to succeed at. Most people don’t understand the disadvantages he faces in being the only smaller private institution in a P5 conference. He loves Evanston and they love him. The Wildcats went 1-11 last year, another year like that and he’ll be fine.
Mike Neu, Ball State
Another man coaching his alma mater who’s done a good job. I’ll be honest, this was one of the finds I uncovered in this process. I didn’t realize how consistent he has been at Ball State in recent years. After many years of futility, he took over in 2016 and saw immediate results. A down year in 2017 has been the only very poor year they’ve had under Neu. In the last 4 seasons, they’ve won at least 5 every year, and that’s with taking a few beatings in payout games out of the MAC. Two bowl appearances in the last three years have Neu in a position that suits the Ball State faithful. If someone asked me today “Which coach is most likely to be at his current job in 10 years?” My answer would either be Kirby Smart or Mike Neu.
https://twitter.com/BSUCoachNeu/status/1606052346429001730
Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
I have been critical of multiple Pat Narduzzi moments in front of a microphone in recent seasons, he’s said some things I think are without merit and hurtful to people involved (ie: the Drake Maye quote) but what he can do is coach. Credit where credit is due, he’s a top-notch defensive mind and leader. Since taking over in 2015 he has led a resurgence in the previously down Panthers. His record is 62-41, including a 2021 ACC title. This year his team won the Sun Bowl, they’ve gone to 6 bowls in 8 seasons. He has increased the culture, buy-in, and expectations around that entire program and made them a team to watch every year in the ACC. Narduzzi has earned the right to have a poor season if it happens, though, with his team’s recent performances, I wouldn’t bet on it happening.
