5. Dan Lanning
It may seem crazy to have a second-year head coach in a list like this, but Dan Lanning demonstrated through various highs and lows last season that a lot of experience was gained by the first-year Oregon coach.
Lows included the Week 1 “neutral” site game against Georgia (in Atlanta) where it seemed the Ducks forgot to get off the bus in a 49-3 loss. Following that game, Oregon seemed to figure it out that included three Top 12 ranked wins on the season, highlighted by the return of Chip Kelly to Autzen in a Top 10 and against eventual Pac-12 Champion Utah.
In between those highs, Lanning had some questionable coaching decisions notably against two fierce rivals.
Against Washington, with the game tied at 34 with under 90 seconds remaining in regulation, Lanning decided to go for it on a fourth and one at the Oregon 34-yard line, only to be stymied at the line of scrimmage. The aggressive call backfired as Washington would go on to kick the game-winning field goal on the ensuing drive. Even though time remained for one last gasp, it wasn’t enough to overcome the aggressive call.
Against Oregon State an eerily similar decision occurred, Oregon had a 34-17 lead in the fourth quarter and gave their rival three short fields on three consecutive possessions that led to three touchdowns. The first two were player execution failures, but the third Lanning has to own. On a fourth and one on the Ducks’ 29, Lanning decided to go for it again, the logic was understandable; slow the rising momentum Oregon State had after scoring 14 unanswered points. But the ramifications weren’t weighed sufficiently as quarterback Bo Nix was stopped on a quarterback keeper for a loss and four plays later OSU running back Isaiah Newell ran for his second and deciding score.
Oregon bounced back to win a hard-fought Holiday Bowl against North Carolina, who may have the consensus No. 2 quarterback in the country Drake Maye, with Heisman winner Caleb Williams being seen as the best.
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Overall, there is a lot to like about Lanning. He will need to make refinements in his decision-making process to get over the hump, but those can only come from experience.
He will benefit, to an extent, with Southern California and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten after this season, but in a lot of ways it got tougher to make the playoffs for Oregon if they decide to remain a Pac-12 member, not sure how an expanded playoff will view or seed an Oregon team, that is yet to be determined.
Lanning also lost offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham for the Arizona State head coaching job, so seeing how he responds with new offensive coordinator Will Stein will say a lot as well.
Lanning still has Oregon recruiting at a high level, as evidenced by landing four-star quarterback Michael Van Buren from Baltimore, MD (St. Frances Academy), demonstrating the national brand Oregon possesses that is fueled by Nike as a strategic partner.
This partnership will always have an in nationally with top recruits. It will only be a matter of time before they secure the program’s first national championship.
4. James Franklin
With national college football analyst Josh Pate recently comparing Penn State to potentially being a 2019 LSU, it is looking more and more like Penn State may have its first national championship since 1986 with James Franklin at the helm.
There have been a few major wins on and off the field for Franklin.
Behind the scenes, Franklin has alignment with new athletic director Patrick Kraft, who shares a similar vision and aspiration as Franklin. Penn State is in the midst of its 20-year “Facilities Master Plan” and it is looking like both Beaver Stadium and football facility upgrades are coming up next in the project.
With NIL becoming more prevalent, with Franklin assessing at one point Penn State was two years behind the rest of the nation in this effort, the Lions Legacy Club landed a landmark seven-figure collective which should help Franklin in his recruiting efforts keeping Penn State not only in the mix for elite talent but the ability to close on elite talent.
Speaking of recruiting, Franklin has landed consecutive recruiting classes that have all the makings to be impactful.
Last season, a pair of freshmen running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen reversed Penn State’s recent woes to the fortune of helping the Nittany Lions return to a fourth New Year’s Six Bowl in seven seasons.
The major obstacle for Franklin is he has a major Ohio State/Michigan problem, where the Nittany Lions have lost 14 of 18 matchups. The expanded playoffs may help the Nittany Lions circumvent this but they may still have to see them in the playoffs or teams on the same level as them.
A luxury that the current Big Ten East Division has enjoyed is the Big Ten West has always been several steps behind but with Wisconsin hiring Luke Fickell, who is implementing his version of the Air Raid for Wisconsin, Nebraska hiring Matt Rhule, who has engineered turnarounds at Temple and Baylor. With the addition of Southern California and UCLA in 2024, the Big Ten Championship Game isn’t a gimme anymore for the East (if there even is an east after the expansion to 16 teams.)
To me, though, Franklin has been building and architecting for this moment, and with the key infrastructure pieces in place and Penn State becoming sophisticated in its NIL approach with recruiting not missing a beat, it is just a matter of time before Penn State wins its elusive national championship.
3. Ryan Day
Day has encountered his first major problem as a head coach, and it isn’t one that cannot be taken lightly.
Michigan.
For a generation now, it was almost automatic that on the last Saturday of the regular season at noon, Ohio State was going to beat Michigan. They won 17 out of 19 games, and it was at a point that Ohio State fans were calculating when they would tie and overtake Michigan in the overall series lead.
After an interruption in the series due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, Michigan has figured out OSU by winning back-to-back games.
The hysteria of losing back-to-back games led recently to AD Gene Smith to give Day a vote of confidence.
To me, the vote of confidence wasn’t necessary. And I am of the opinion that the adversity is only going to make Day stronger.
Ohio State was one kick away from defeating Georgia in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Peach Bowl. The same Bulldog team that defeated four other ranked teams by an average of 34.5 points per game, held on to a one-point win against Day’s squad.
The Buckeyes have reached the College Football Playoff National Championship Game during Day’s tenure, and they continue to recruit exceptionally well on the offensive side of the ball. Day has mentioned to Smith he may relinquish play calling duties, “His thought process about possibly giving up play calling, he shared that with me without me ever asking that question,” Smith told ESPN. “When we hired him, I told him, ‘You’ve got to stay in your wheelhouse and call plays. There’ll be a natural point in time in your career where that changes.’ So that’s not for me to decide … that’s for him to decide,” Smith said.
Day has promoted and given more responsibility to Brian Hartline as offensive coordinator, who may be the best wide receiver coach and recruiter in the nation. That sort of forward-thinking by Day will bode well for him.
I would also not count out Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator, even though the defense got scorched in their final two contests to the tune of 43.5 points per game. Look for even more adjustments from Knowles and continue to leverage elite edge rusher J.T. Tuimoloau in very many ways.
I fully expect with the dynamic perimeter athletes that Ohio State continues to get, and the emphasis to bulk up in the trenches, it will only be a matter of time before Day gets it all put together.
2. Lincoln Riley
The obstacle that seems to be blocking Lincoln Riley from a national championship is poor defense.
I don’t feel Riley needs an elite defense to win a national championship; he just needs one that can make the key stops when it is absolutely needed.
Riley will live and die by the sword of his offense. And when you look at the weapons he seems to attract on offense, why shouldn’t he?
Riley is the quarterback whisperer de jour in college football. His resume speaks for itself. Between the three Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks he has developed, two of those (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray) went on to become No. 1 overall NFL Draft selections, and Caleb Williams shows all the signs of making it three for three in that department for Riley. Additionally, his ability to refine Jalen Hurts into a quarterback who flirted with the NFL MVP last season, had a Super Bowl MVP performance in the Super Bowl, and for a brief time was the highest-paid player in NFL History, shows his efficacy working with all different types of signal callers.
The next quarterback in line for Riley is former five-star Malachi Nelson from Los Alamitos, California, and if Riley has shut off the California quarterback pipeline that Alabama, Clemson, and others have feasted on, it only boasts Riley’s cause of winning a national championship.
The Trojans have an awkward 2023 window as they conclude as a member of the Pac-12 Conference.
The schedule makers did no favors for the Trojans as they face off against Notre Dame, Utah, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA in a six-week stretch. If they overcome that stretch unscathed they are primed to return to the College Football Playoff.
The unknown is 2024 and beyond, as Southern Cal and UCLA join the Big Ten. They will have to contend with perennial powers of the East in Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State as well as contend with rebuilding brands in Wisconsin and Nebraska, along with the many trap games the conference has with Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota, and Michigan State that are huge spoilers.
The Trojans have a manageable schedule up to those final six weeks of the season which will ultimately determine for this season if the Trojans are going to the College Football Playoff.
If they don’t this year, it won’t be long, with an expanded playoff coming,before they can take advantage of the opportunity to win it all.
Give Riley an elite defense to complement his elite potent offenses, he has a dynasty.
Give Riley an average defense to complement his elite potent offenses, he will win a national championship. The obstacle isn’t insurmountable.
1. Brian Kelly
In theory, this one may not count, as Brian Kelly already possesses the two Division II national championships he won at Grand Valley State in 2002 and 2003, but we all know the desire Kelly has to complete his already Hall of Fame resume.
Kelly, at all levels, has won 294 games (if you include the 21 vacated wins at Notre Dame for the 2012 and 2013 seasons), nine conference championships, and 18 postseason games between bowls and Division II playoff games.
Missing from his resume are two key pieces. The first is a New Year’s Six bowl victory. He has a record of 0-5 (if you include the 2012 BCS National Championship Game against Alabama) plus two New Year’s Six bowls he did not coach in because he shifted jobs (his teams did lose both games for what it is worth).
The second is a College Football Playoff Division I National Championship.
Kelly realized he hit the ceiling at Notre Dame and understood that his peak years to be able to win one might be closing. These were the deciding factors that led to his jumping to LSU.
When you consider the last three head coaches at LSU, Nick Saban, Les Miles, and Ed Orgeron, all won national championships, the extremely fertile recruiting territory Kelly has, coupled with the less rigid standards to gain admittance to LSU versus Notre Dame all aids in Kelly’s favor.
In his first season in Baton Rouge, Kelly had LSU in the SEC Championship Game when the media had LSU picked to finish fifth in the preseason. Take away some discipline issues against Florida State to open the season, and an ankle injury to starting quarterback Jayden Daniels that significantly impacted games against Texas A&M and Georgia, and who really knows how far the Bayou Bengals would have achieved for Kelly.
To me, the reason LSU paid Ed Oregeron to go away was that they know he grossly underachieved in developing players, and he himself wasn’t disciplined enough to handle the job and own the culture.
Kelly is extremely disciplined and he will find the pieces he needs to facilitate what he desires. He desires to be a national champion at the highest level and he now has the resources allocated to him unlike any before in his career.
Kelly made Notre Dame relevant once again. But he realized those difference makers that make you flirt with national championship aspirations and actually become a national champion were two different things. And he wasn’t going to be able to get that done in South Bend. That is why he went to LSU. To be a national champion. And I’m willing to bet that happens.
