Over/Under: Texas Wins, Joe Milton Touchdowns, Napier's Tenure in Gainesville

I take a dive into whether a certain number in college football is OVER or UNDER. Easy enough, right?

Texas 2023 wins

OVER/UNDER 9.5

Texas has the weapons to win ten or more games this season, but there are very few gimmies on the schedule. Rice and Wyoming, and that’s about it. The parity in the Big XII is arguably unmatched in college football and wins you could normally pencil in like Kansas and Texas Tech are tough games. Texas doesn’t “own” anyone in the conference, and with Houston and BYU added to the schedule, it just gets tougher. And let’s not forget — every year is the year of Texas, so I don’t believe it until I can see it.

Prediction: UNDER

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian talks to quarterback Arch Manning (16) during the first Texas Longhorns football practice of 2023 at the Frank Denius Fields on the University of Texas at Austin campus on Monday, March 6, 2023.

Joe Milton TD passes

OVER/UNDER 30

Milton threw 10 TD passes last season with zero picks, and Hendon Hooker had 31 TD passes in 2021, so why not? The Josh Heupel offense is an easy one to succeed in, and Milton has shown signs of progress. But this is still Joe Milton, who lacks touch and throws everything as a fastball, and until I see him truly settle down for a few games, I won’t believe he can have a massive season. One game against a depleted Clemson team hasn’t convinced me.

Prediction: UNDER

Dec 30, 2022; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joe Milton III (7) throws a pass against the Clemson Tigers during the first half of the 2022 Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium.

Billy Napier seasons with Florida

OVER/UNDER 3.5

Napier has finished season one, but to get to four, he will have to be pretty amazing. Will Muschamp barely made it, and Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen wore out their welcomes quickly. It’s not that these are amazing coaches, although Mullen was impressive at Mississippi State. It’s more about the impatience in Gainesville as Muschamp, McElwain, and Mullen were all ousted two seasons after winning ten or more games. Even if Napier has surprising success next year, he could be gone the year after. That’s how it works at Florida.