The third biggest state in America by population is also one of the biggest states for College Football. Florida is the only state to have three national championship-winning teams since 2000, each of whom has a massive fanbase, claims a different part of the Sunshine State, and bitterly hates each other. Everything, from landing a recruit, or a bad loss is brought up in frequent arguments. With so much to talk about from Florida, Florida State, and Miami, let’s talk about the state of football in Florida.
Both Florida and Miami hired new coaches in 2022, Billy Napier and Mario Cristobal, while Mike Norvell was entering his third year. Miami was expected to do the best, winning 8.5 games per Vegas while playing in the easiest division and having a proven head coach. They were also expected to win the ACC Coastal division. Florida was expected to win 7.5 games in the SEC, while Florida State brought up the rear among the three with 6.5 games in an easier ACC Atlantic.
As we know, Miami badly underperformed by going 5-7, Florida went 6-7 with a rough finish, and Florida State outperformed expectations and went 10-3. Miami and Florida didn’t play, but Florida State played and beat both of their rivals. First, they went into South Florida and spanked Miami 45-3. Later, they closed the regular season by winning the Sunshine Showdown in a 45-38 thriller.
The rivalry doesn’t just stick to team records and rivalry scores. In the offseason, the focus shifts to recruiting. In 2023, all of the teams finished in the top twenty, with Miami leading the pack at seventh nationally. The Canes focused on rebuilding the trenches with recruits like five-stars Francis Maulgoa, Samson Okunlola, and top 100 edges Reuben Bain and Jayden Wayne. Meanwhile, Florida finished fourteenth, and had an incredibly deep class, landing eighteen four-stars. The Noles rounded the top three out at nineteenth but also had the fifth-best class and few departing seniors.
One of the biggest commitments that Miami and FSU fans talk about is a current Arizona State player. Four-star quarterback Jaden Rashada committed and signed his letter of intent to Florida, but backed out after his $13.5 Million Dollar NIL deal fell through. This, and the surprising departure of Anthony Richardson to the NFL has brought uncertainty to the Gators’ offense next season.
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While it is still very early in the 2024 class, the tables may be turning. After flipping five-star tight end Landen Thomas from Georgia, Florida State has the #5 class nationally, and the best class in the Sunshine State. Florida is sitting at #9, led by five-star quarterback DJ Lagway, with five other four-stars. Lastly, Miami is 28th nationally, but again, that will change by the time signing day comes around.
When the preseason poll comes out, Florida State will be the highest-ranked team. They are #1 nationally in returning production from a team who won ten games last season and could start the season in the top five. Due to their 2021 losing records, Florida and Miami should start outside the top twenty-five. But as numerous teams, including preseason sixteenth Miami and unranked Florida State, have shown us preseason polls aren’t always right. At the time of publication, Florida State is projected to have nine wins, while Miami and Florida are projected seven victories for the 2023 season.
However, there is a new wrinkle for the 2023 season, a fourth-power conference team in Florida. Central Florida will be joining the Big 12, and while they are still a step behind the three powers, they will only make the Florida power dynamics more interesting. Gus Malzahn’s team is currently sitting 32nd in the 2024 recruiting class, but a big first season could boost them up further from there. They’re projected to have 7 wins coming off of their 9-5 season in the American.
Outside the power five, the state has more to talk about. Florida Atlantic will join the American from the C-USA and replace UCF. They will join South Florida as the other Sunshine State team in the conference. Lastly, Florida International will remain in the retooled C-USA as the only Florida team. USF and FAU have hired Alex Golesh and Tom Herman respectively, and the only direction for their teams is up after disappointing 2022 seasons. Meanwhile, FIU will look to improve past a 4-8 record in Mike MacIntyre’s second season.
The most interesting state is already counting down for the season to begin. Hopes are high for all these teams and each team has something to look forward to. This highly competitive state will bring forth more storylines, excitement, and humiliation in 2023. The only question now is what will happen.
