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Five Pac-12 Expansion Ideas

After last week’s summit at Arizona State, what’s the plan for the Pac-12, and who should they target?

February 6, 2023
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The Pac-12 university chancellors, presidents, and athletic directors met at Arizona State last week to seek alignment and focus with the pending exodus of Southern California and UCLA in less than 18 months. Pac-12 insiders are reporting the path the conference is going to take is secure media rights contracts first before expanding.

What details that came out of Tempe was the conference will not replace fired Pac-12 Networks president Mark Shuken and may try to look for a broadcasting partner to absorb the Pac-12 Networks. The league took a precarious approach in getting into the media company business. Right now, from a sports business perspective, the Pac-12 Networks are the key to getting the league share above what the Big XII recently got for its conference at $31.6 million per school. Currently, most view the Pac-12 getting between $27 to $29 million per school.

The conference is looking for creative ways to distribute its content, potentially heavily on streaming services like Apple TV and Amazon Prime. Any notion that conference anchors Oregon and Washington are holding up any potential contracts and expansion movements is false, because no media contract has been formally submitted to the conference to review.

Once the conference has their media contract done, one should expect a ladder clause similar to the Big Ten’s recent contract to have revenue climb with more inventory available.

So, who should the Pac-12 target once a media contract is secure? Here are my Top 5 ideas: 


Dec 24, 2022; Honolulu, HI, USA; San Diego State Aztecs place kicker Jack Browning (13) celebrates his field goal late in the fourth quarter at Ching Complex. 

#1 San Diego State

When Dan Patrick reported back in November, that San Diego State would become a member of the Pac-12 that week, he was a little ambitious, but he wasn’t that far off.

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Part of the reason why San Diego State athletic director John David Wicker stayed in San Diego and not taking the same position at his alma mater at Mississippi State is essentially that San Diego State is unofficially a member of the league. From a business perspective, the San Diego market is a Top 30 market and geographically it makes sense for the league to add a California school.

San Diego State recently invested $310 million constructing Snapdragon Stadium that opened last August. It will be the smallest venue presently constructed at 35,000 seats, but it has the ability to expand to over 50,000 seats.

Historically speaking, San Diego State University has produced three Division II national championships, 21 conference championships, with three in the Mountain West (five Mountain West division championships)in the last decade, and produced football hall of fame coaches in Don Coryell and Joe Gibbs with its most prominent player in Marshall Faulk.

Expect San Diego State in the league imminently after the new media deal is done.


Aug 29, 2019; Provo, UT, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Zach Wilson (1) escapes the grasp of Utah Utes defensive end Mika Tafua (42) and defensive end Bradlee Anae (6) in the fourth quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

#2 BYU

This initially looks like a bit of a reach — and it may be — but if the Pac-12 would like to poach from the Big XII, in my mind, BYU is the call. The time to do this is either now before the new media deal takes place in 2025-2026 or to wait to move in on the Cougars closer to when the Big XII deal nears its end in 2031.

Over the last several years, BYU has played a majority of the Pac-12 teams including going 5-0 in 2021. BYU and Utah play in a fierce rivalry, The Holy War, that would give the Pac-12 a signature game to add to its inventory.

BYU has a history that includes a national championship, Heisman Trophy winner, 23 conference championships, and 40 bowl game appearances, and its brand value domestically and internationally is the value here for the conference. The conference already has the television markets with Utah in Salt Lake City. Adding BYU is purely football focused and it doesn’t hurt the league in any matter.


Sep 4, 2021; Seattle, Washington, USA; Montana Grizzlies quarterback Camron Humphrey (2) celebrates following a 13-7 victory against the Washington Huskies at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. 

#3 Become Pacific Northwest Focused

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, when he is approached about the expansion strategy of the SEC, usually dodges the question of specifically who goes with the lines of we need to assess a potential partner, but the concrete answer he gives is that he would like the league to maintain its geographic footprint.

While the fruits of the SEC’s labor was a long process that started with Roy Kramer, and then to Mike Slive, it built a brand that was concentrated in regionality and passion. Could George Kliavkoff emulate that same strategy?

This could become a buy low right now and grow over time. For instance, the Pac-12 could grab a Boise State program who is one of the most successful programs in college football history having the fifth highest winning percentage. 

The bigger reach, however, might be going after FCS Montana, who beat Washington two seasons ago, and their coach Bobby Hauck, who has won nearly 78% of his games in Missoula. Initially this wouldn’t wow anyone, and most would joke about it. The thing is you can develop fierce regional rivalries and both schools have demonstrated their ability to win big.

Roy Kramer’s plan for the SEC was to leverage the fierce regional rivalries that anyone in the country would want to watch. This would be a slow burn for the Pac-12, but one that could pay dividends later. 


Oct 7, 2021; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Dana Holgorsen reacts to a play against Tulane Green Wave during the first half at Yulman Stadium. 

#4 Go For the Money

Ultimately all these media deals are based on potential eye’s watching your content to generate ad revenue, and two lucrative markets available to poach from the Big XII are Houston Cougars and UNLV Rebels from the Mountain West.

Neither makes sense from a football perspective, as neither really would bring anything tangible to make the Pac-12 a stronger conference.

Houston has some history that includes a Heisman Trophy winner, winning a New Year’s Six bowl in the last decade, and being a thorn in the side of some Power 5 foes. With current head coach Dana Holgorsen assessing Houston’s resources transitioning to the Pac-12, “What we’re dealing with right now on a day-to-day basis is going to be dead last in the Big 12. That’s just facts.”

This doesn’t bode well for a smooth transition into the Big XII.

UNLV has no history, as they possess an all-time losing record, five bowl game appearances (2-2 official record with one forfeited game), and the 1994 Big West conference championship (1984 Pacific Coach Athletic Conference title forfeited) on its football resume.

Why the crazy reach for these two odd teams? 

Money.

Houston is the fourth most populous city and fifth largest metropolitan area in the United States. The number of potential eyes is what drives the ad revenue up. With the league losing Los Angeles, adding Houston to a portfolio that consists of Phoenix (No. 10 metro), San Francisco (No. 13 metro), and most likely San Diego (No. 17 metro), the conference could get a significant boost in its media rights deal.

Las Vegas is currently the ninth fastest growing metropolitan area between 2016 and 2021 with a 7.2% increase in its population. Add in the fact that the NFL’s Raiders and NHL’s Golden Knights already play in Las Vegas, with MLB and NBA looking to jump into the foray, Las Vegas is today where Phoenix was nearly 40 years as professional teams and population boom began.

Again neither Houston or UNLV adds to the football cache, this would show a desperation for more money for the Pac-12. 


Oct 24, 2019; Houston, TX, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs cornerback Sam Westfall (6) is congratulated by the fans following SMU’s 34-31 win against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. 

#5 SMU or Fresno State

With the Pac-12 expansion, it will certainly be San Diego State plus one if the league expands by two teams.

If the conference is here at my fifth option, it will weigh whether to add a Fresno State team that geographically makes sense, that has a successful football history of winning nearly 60% of its games, 30 bowl games, and 29 conference championships and that has been a thorn in some of the Pac-12 teams.

The opposite approach would take a team that would add not only a new state to the portfolio in Texas, it would bring the Pac-12 the No. 4 metropolitan area in the United State in Dallas-Fort Worth. SMU does not make geographic sense, but does in a business sense.

SMU does have history with three claimed national championships, The Pony Express, and 11 Southwest Conference championships that were won by some of the sport’s immortals in Don Meredith, Eric Dickerson, Doak Walker, Forrest Gregg, and Raymond Berry. But while the history is nice and much like BYU’s 1984 national championship, it does not weigh as much today since these accomplishments are not relevant to today’s format.

The rehabilitation of SMU is a great comeback story and getting to a Power 5 conference would just add to that story.

If the Pac-12 were between the two, my lean would go to SMU.

Category: College Football, FeaturedTag: Bihal Kone, Boise State Broncos, BYU Cougars, Dana Holgorsen, Henry Omohundro, Houston Cougars, Javonte Smith, Montana Bobcats, Pac-12, San Diego State Aztecs, SMU Mustangs, UNLV Rebels
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