Four years ago, Penn State was in position to win a Top 10 matchup against Ohio State at home. In the fourth quarter with eight minutes to go, Penn State running back Miles Sanders scored a touchdown to put the Nittany Lions up 26-14 and it looked like it would be another signature win for James Franklin.
As the game progressed, the Ohio State offense was just able to cut through the Penn State offense like a hot knife through butter and the Nittany Lions were left with a second consecutive heartbreak to Ohio State. That heartbreak led to James Franklin’s famous rant after the game about Penn State going from a good program, to a great one, finally to an elite one.
Since the “Good to Great to Elite” rant, Penn State has played in two more Top 10 showdowns; a 2019 clash with Ohio State that followed the Minnesota upset, and last season’s “water torture” clash at Iowa where Penn State built up a lead, but after key injuries to quarterback Sean Clifford and defensive tackle PJ Mustipher, the Nittany Lions weren’t able to find adequate replacements. Nittany Nation once again watched the game slip away.
Franklin has done an admirable job in Happy Valley restoring the Penn State program following the Jerry Sandusky fall out. During a stretch between 2016 and 2019, the Nittany Lions won a Big Ten Championship and participated in three New Year’s Six bowl flirting with being elite.
Penn State entered the 2022 season predicted by most prognosticators to battle for fourth place in the Big Ten East as most felt Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan were well ahead of the Nittany Lions. As the season has played out, however, Michigan State is a disaster and will be a dangerous trap game for the league as they play more for pride than anything else.
James Franklin’s squad will face Ohio State in a few weeks, and it’s going to be as big a test imaginable for the Nits. The Buckeyes look as good as ever with a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, two stud running backs, dynamic receivers who can do anything they want. And this is without preseason Heisman candidate Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They are one of two teams that have beaten all their competition by double digits (along with Oklahoma State).
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For the Nittany Lions, it is a Top 10 clash in Ann Arbor this weekend against the defending Big Ten champion Michigan Wolverines that is the current test to see if the Nittany Lions can be part of the elite. This will be a true litmus test as to how road clashes with Purdue and Auburn prepped them for this moment.
The Wolverines have settled on a quarterback in JJ McCarthy who has distinguished himself the past few weeks. Leveraging the talents of Blake Corum, McCarthy is lethal in play action situations where he has a perfect passer rating.
J.J. McCarthy off play action this season:
?22/25
?395 Passing Yards
?4 TDs/0 INTs
?Perfect 158.3 Passer Rating pic.twitter.com/wf51HgL4WQ— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 12, 2022
Franklin said this week of McCarthy,
“I’ve been impressed with his poise. He is very poised back there. Obviously, he’s been very accurate. He can make all the throws on the field. He’s got a very strong arm. He’s got real good what people describe as arm talent.” – PSU coach James Franklin on Michigan QB JJ McCarthy
One of the major holes most felt Michigan would endure this season after losing Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo would be a lack of the pass rush. It seems the Wolverines have filled those spots having 22 sacks so far this season through six games. Last season the Wolverines at this point had 14 sacks.
Franklin feels the Nittany Lions with an improved offensive line unit and running game have the ability to be multi-dimensional and feels the Wolverines capitalized on opponents who weren’t able to run and pass saying:
Yeah, I think we’re better equipped. But I also think they’ve done a good job of making people one-dimensional, so then you’re getting in maybe not obvious passing downs, but maybe a situation where people — I don’t know if the score has always mandated that. Some of their games it has.
But people have gotten away from the run game because they’ve gotten down by too many points. Whenever you’re up by a certain margin, then you’re going to get more passing opportunities, which also creates more opportunities to rush the quarterback and pin your ears back. So that plays a factor into it, how the score goes.
Very similar to their offense and how they’ve been able to manage their offense over the last couple of years and be able to stay on schedule. If you’re in third-and-short situations or getting a bunch of yards on first down, it helps manage that for their offense and for their defense in what they’re trying to do.
Yeah, I think we’re better equipped to do it from a personnel standpoint, but I also think we’re better equipped to do it in terms of not getting away from the run and being one-dimensional. Kind of sticking with the plan.
For Penn State, they haven’t defeated a Top 10 opponent on the road since the 2008 Ohio State game.
To get to elite, Penn State has to ride freshman sensations Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, something the Nittany Lions haven’t enjoyed since Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders were in the same backfield in 2017.
For Clifford this is a legacy game for the sixth year senior looking to put an exclamation mark on his career, a win in Ann Arbor would do that. As McCarthy is dominating on play action for Michigan, Clifford is lethal in the red zone for Penn State leading the nation in completion percentage in the red zone at 92.9%.
The question Penn State fans will ask is which Clifford will show up. While the sixth-year senior is by no means is an elite quarterback, he can be at times a very good college football player. The Nittany Lions need Clifford to limit his performance lulls where he gets happy feet and makes errant throws.
For James Franklin, the Penn State brass awarded Franklin with an extension that was beneficial for both sides this offseason. It gives Penn State the flexibility to cut ties and if Franklin realizes he isn’t cutting it in Happy Valley gives him an out.
Winning at Michigan Saturday puts Penn State on the precipice of being elite. Ohio State stands in the way of the College Football Playoff, but Michigan stands in the way of a New Year’s Six berth.
If Penn State wants to move from great to elite, winning against a Top 10 team on the road goes a long way to do that and the time is Saturday.
