By Mark Pszonak
On Tuesday morning, ESPN’s computer model, the Football Power Index (FPI), released its 2025 projections. The FPI believes that 33 of the 68 (48.5%) P4 teams have a 0.0% chance of winning a National Championship. While some of these teams aren’t a surprise, a few are worth discussing. Here is a breakdown by conference of each school that has no chance to win a National Championship in 2025 according to FPI:
Big 12
(8 of 16 (50%) schools are at 0.0%)
Colorado, Iowa State, Utah, Cincinnati, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Houston, West Virginia
The skinny: The only real surprise would be Iowa State, which is coming off an 11-3 season and is returning an experienced quarterback, Rocco Becht. Cincinnati, Arizona and Oklahoma State all had horrible 2024 seasons, while West Virginia only has one winning season since 2021. As for Colorado, it may only be surprising because of the hype the program received when Deion Sanders arrived, but in reality, they are nowhere near winning a National Championship.
ACC
(12 of 17 (71%) schools are at 0.0%)
Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia, Stanford, Cal, Florida State, Boston College, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Pittsburgh
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The skinny: The biggest attention grabber is that only five of the 17 schools have any chance of winning a National Championship, which further magnifies the issues in the conference. It is surprising to see Louisville and Syracuse on this list, since they combined to go 19-7 in 2024, but the Cardinals are the real eye opener. They have gone 19-8 since Jeff Brohm returned and have been a consistent threat in the ACC. As for Florida State, they belong on the list after going 2-10, but it is still odd seeing the Seminoles become irrelevant. And finally, the hiring of Bill Belichick did nothing to improve the Tar Heels chances in 2025.
Big Ten
(10 of 18 (55%) schools are at 0.0%)
UCLA, Northwestern, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue
The skinny: The immediate attention grabber is Illinois. The Illini are a trendy pick to make the playoffs, yet FPI sees little to no chance of that happening. Iowa is also a surprise, considering they haven’t had a losing season since 2012 and only two since 2006. Wisconsin should be surprising, considering they’ve only had one losing season since 2001, but since that one was in 2024 it further shows the upheaval going on in Madison.
SEC
(3 of 16 (18.7%) schools are at 0.0%)
Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
The skinny: While none of these three are a surprise, what is a surprise is that a few more teams aren’t on this list. It is hard to believe that even the most devoted fans of Arkansas, Auburn and Oklahoma think that they have any chance of winning a National Championship in 2025. All might see improvement this season, but that won’t lead them anywhere near a title.
