Let’s set the record straight of the rip: Arch Manning is developing under a microscope that most QBs wouldn’t survive. There have only been a few college athletes that have experienced this kind of attention.
Every throw, every facial expression, every second on the sideline gets scrutinized because of the last name on his jersey. Legacy doesn’t throw touchdowns—skill, poise and the ability to be coached do. And now, the Manning era in Texas has officially begun. Here, I give my expert QB opinion on the good, the bad and his projection for the 2025 season.
What Manning Does Well
Arch Manning throwing dimes on day one
— Arch Manning Highlights (@ArchHighlights) March 25, 2025
( 🎥: @CJVogel_OTF) pic.twitter.com/P0xw9xlOIo
- Throwing with touch: Shows excellent feel for layering throws over defenders and dropping passes into tight windows. Knows when to take velocity off and deliver with finesse, especially on deep-crossing routes and red zone throws.
- Poise and confidence: Usually maintains composure in the pocket, even under pressure. Doesn’t get rattled easily and displays a calm presence that elevates those around him.
- Leadership: Vocal and emotional leader who commands respect in the huddle and on the sideline. Teammates respond to his energy and he leads with both words and actions.
- Mobility: Fluid athlete who can extend plays with his legs. Capable of escaping pressure and creating outside the pocket. Keeps his eyes downfield when scrambling and is a threat to pick up first downs with his feet.
Areas of Growth
ARCH MANNING TAKES IT 67 YARDS TO THE HOUSE WITH HIS LEGS 😱
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 15, 2024
It's the longest rush by a Texas QB since Vince Young in 2005. pic.twitter.com/AjU9uSli2c
- Holding the ball too long: Struggles with anticipation; often holds the ball too long, leading to late throws and increased turnover risk. Needs to trust his read and throw with confidence.
- Zone read decision-making: Needs to improve understanding of defensive alignment. Fails to consistently make the correct read based on the numbers. If the extra defender is aligned to the pull side, the correct decision is to give the ball to the running back.
- Risky throws into tight coverage: Frequently attempts passes into double and triple coverage. These decisions are unsustainablein the SEC where defenses are fast and opportunistic. Must develop better discipline and field awareness.
- Deep-ball efficiency: Tends to float deep passes with too much air under the ball, disrupting timing and rhythm with receivers. Root cause appears to be incomplete hip rotation—quarter-turn instead of a full hip flip, limiting velocity, power and accuracy on long throws.
- Protection awareness and scramble safety: Takes unnecessary hits when scrambling. Needs to show better situational awareness and get down or out of bounds to preserve his health, especially against physical SEC defenses.
- Footwork vs. Top competition: Footwork becomes sluggish against faster, more talented defenses (e.g., Georgia). Must improve lower-body urgency and consistency to operate efficiently under pressure.
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2025 Projection
I project Manning to total these numbers or better in the regular season:
Passing yards: 3,500
Completion: 60 percent
Passing touchdowns: 30
Interceptions: 11
Rushing touchdowns: 6
Texas will play big in the SEC and make a big playoff push for a national championship.
Word Around the NFL
“I get that everyone’s excited. That run happened and people started talking—they’re almost surprised with that last name that he has that speed, and the ability to generate big plays with his legs, and he gets transformed into this elite prospect. The reality is we haven’t really seen him run the offense with any consistency yet. And that’s not his fault, he just hasn’t played.”
—AFC college scouting director on Manning
“You just don’t know until they’re really playing. Right now, the body of work is too small. We’ve seen big guys with talent, the tools, the arm, that don’t know how to process, and don’t have the accuracy to all levels of the field consistently enough. What we have on [Manning] isn’t nearly enough. You could guess, but that’s really all you’ll be doing—guessing.”
—another AFC college scouting director on Manning
#Browns owner Jimmy Haslam on the speculation that he’s already eyeing Arch Manning in the 2026 NFL draft.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) July 29, 2025
“If you know the Manning family — and I don’t know Arch at all — I'd bet he stays in college two years. I don’t think that’s worth discussing.” pic.twitter.com/asCEKcaXpY
Final Remarks
I love everything about this young man. Am I buying the hype? Although it serves college football well, I am not buying it for 2025. Especially the draft analysts saying he’s No. 1 overall if he was to come out after this season.
Manning is talented without a doubt. Even the legends had things that they needed to work on to be elite. The SEC is a different breed and I am rooting for him. Let’s say he has the season that everyone expects, I believe that we would sill see Manning at Texas until the 2027 NFL Draft.
There is an unwritten rule in the Manning family—to graduate from college first and be developed as a total quarterback. I think that Manning will follow this rule. If you were to say that he would be the No. 1 pick in 2027, then we have more film to work off of to show his growth.
