How far has Wisconsin football fallen in recent years? The release of the Associated Press Top 25 was a reminder of years past when Badger fans grumbled about being ranked “only” 17th in the preseason poll. Now, they’d gladly settle for 25th, or even just a few votes.
Wisconsin has not won more than seven games in any of the past three seasons, something that last happened in Barry Alvarez’s first three years as head coach (1990–92), when the Badgers went 1-10, 5-6 and 5-6. The Luke Fickell era has been rocky so far, and he now faces a schedule USA Today ranks as the fourth-toughest in the nation. To reach at least eight wins and reverse the program’s decline, three things need to happen.
The #Badgers have done 42 pushups at the end of every practice this spring, a nod to the 42-10 loss to Iowa last season.
— Donnie Slusher (@DonnieSlusher_) April 9, 2025
When asked why that loss stood out among the three rivalry losses, Darryl Peterson responded:
“When have you ever heard of Iowa scoring 42 points, ever?” pic.twitter.com/Q4Hr5zEKwg
Ground and Pound
Wisconsin football is at its best when the offensive line dominates the game. In 2019, one of Wisconsin’s recent successful seasons, the Badgers went 10-4, reached the Rose Bowl and averaged 233.7 rushing yards per game, which ranked 15th nationally. Under Fickell that production has dropped sharply, ranking 60th in 2023 with 160.4 yards per game and 73rd in 2024 with 152.1, a major factor in the team’s struggles. With former offensive coordinator Phil Longo now at Sam Houston State, new OC Jeff Grimes takes over with a run-first philosophy that emphasizes physicality. Last season his Kansas offense ranked 16th nationally with 201.3 rushing yards per game so the hope is that success carries over to Madison.
Success Criteria Required For 8 Wins: Average more than 225 rushing yards per game.
Jonathan Taylor is good at football.
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) November 30, 2019
That's it. That's the tweet.#OnWisconsin pic.twitter.com/1Q0e90z0k7
Money Down Mindset
What do schools like Kennesaw State, Akron, and Rice have in common? Besides the fact they all had losing records in 2024, they each finished with a lower percentage of third downs converted by opposing offenses than Wisconsin. The Badgers ranked 79th nationally, allowing opponents to convert 40.82 percent of third downs. Two major reasons were a weak rushing defense, which ranked 90th at 168.8 yards allowed per game, and an inconsistent pass rush, which ranked 120th at just 1.3 sacks per game. Wisconsin must be better at stopping the run on early downs to give players such as junior linebacker Christian Alliegro more opportunities to pressure the quarterback on third down, also known as the money down.
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Success Criteria Required For 8 Wins: Keep opponent third down conversions under 35 percent and average 2.5 sacks per game.
Win the Middle Eight
The “Middle Eight,” a term attributed to former NFL great and current North Carolina coach Bill Belichick, is defined as the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. According to the Wall Street Journal, the team that wins this stretch goes on to win 70 percent of games. Does this trend help explain the Badgers’ struggles in 2024? Let’s take a look game by game from last season.
| Opponent | Result / Final Score | Middle Eight for Wisconsin |
| Western Michigan | W 28-14 | -4 |
| South Dakota | W 27-13 | -4 |
| Alabama | L 10-42 | -14 |
| at USC | L 21-38 | -7 |
| Purdue | W 52-6 | +11 |
| at Rutgers | W 42-7 | +7 |
| at Northwestern | W 23-3 | +7 |
| Penn State | L 13-28 | +7 |
| at Iowa | L 10-42 | 0 |
| Oregon | L 13-16 | +3 |
| at Nebraska | L 25-44 | -13 |
| Minnesota | L 7-24 | 0 |
In five of Wisconsin’s seven losses, the Badgers were even or negative in the middle eight span of the game. Conversely, they were positive in three of their five wins. The Alabama game is a textbook example of how this stretch can decide a contest. After missing a 44-yard field goal with 33 seconds left in the first half, Wisconsin gave up a 47-yard TD reception to wide receiver Ryan Williams just 17 seconds later, making it 21-3. Alabama then opened the second half with a drive lasting two minutes and 20 seconds, capped by a 34-yard TD run from quarterback Jalen Milroe. Instead of trailing 14-6 at halftime, the Badgers faced a 25-point deficit early in the third quarter at 28-3 and the game was effectively over.
Back to back big boy throws from #Alabama QB Jalen Milroe to score in 17 seconds before the end of the half vs. #Wisconsin. Great location, shows off his big arm. Impressive to watch live. pic.twitter.com/dp69tusiGH
— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) September 14, 2024
Success Criteria Required For 8 Wins: Win the middle eight in 70 percent of games on the schedule.
Final Verdict
Now that a blueprint is in place to reach eight wins in the Big Ten this season, how likely is it the Badgers can check all three boxes? While the bar may be low, the best path is through an improved running game but topping 200 yards per game will be a tall order. The other two areas are even more likely to fall short, which could lead to a fourth straight season without at least eight wins.
