It was a long time coming, but finally, Boise State broke through and had a shot at playing for the national title last season. Even though the hopes of playing in said national title game were dashed after a blowout loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, it was still one of the most memorable seasons for Boise State. Now, can they do it all over again?
1. Boise State Broncos (Prediction: 11-1, 8-0)
It will be difficult to replace Ashton Jeanty. However, with returning quarterback Maddux Madsen, the Broncos should have another Mountain West Championship trophy on their mantel, and their third straight appearance in the championship game. Head coach Spencer Danielson is now entering his second full season in Boise, Idaho, and last season was the best you could ask for in your first full season as head coach. The offense ranked No. 8 overall in the country, and the running game was a big reason for the offense being so explosive. Jeanty couldn’t be stopped—he rushed for 2.601 yards, a new program record. Expecting transfer Malik Sherrod to even approach what Jeanty did for the offense last season would be a ridiculous expectation. So the pressure will be on Madsen to produce this season and improve from the passing offense being ranked 70th in the country.
2. San Jose State Spartans (Prediction: 9-3, 7-1)
After a seven-win season in head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s first year at San Jose State, the Spartans will be looking for more this year. Returning quarterback Walker Eget, who led the fifth-best passing offense in the nation last year, will have a new crop of wide receivers to work with, so there could be some growing pains.
However, the Spartans’ running game needs to be better. Last season, they ranked 130th. This year, the offense returns three offensive linemen and running back Floyd Chalk IV. The unit will look to improve upon those numbers. The Spartans’ nonconference schedule will provide its fair share of difficulties, but their conference schedule features six teams picked to finish in the bottom half of the coaches’ poll. One question will need to be answered. If the Spartans reach the Mountain West championship game, how will they fare against a potential nationally-ranked Boise State team?
3. Air Force Falcons (Prediction: 9-3, 6-2)
This may come as a surprise. Air Force is picked to finish No. 6 in the coaches’ poll. However, if you look at the schedule, there is a good case for the Falcons to be among the Mountain West’s best in 2025. Last season was disappointing for Air Force as they did not reach a bowl game. Air Force returns 11 starting players (six on offense and four on defense). The offense only averaged 19 points per game, and with a new starting quarterback, there could be some tough moments to begin their season. However, the schedule lightens up after two tough road games against Navy and UNLV. Air Force should get out to wins against Wyoming and Army before another tough road game against San Jose State, but as mentioned previously about San Jose State, the Spartans will likely face their toughest conference competition against Air Force in early November. UConn, New Mexico and a road game against Colorado State end the season. If Air Force can go undefeated, they’ll be a three-loss team this year.
4. Colorado State Rams (Prediction: 9-3, 6-2)
Last season’s 8-5 season was the best year for the Rams since the 2014 season that saw them finish the season with a 10-3 record, which was Jim McElwain’s last before he left for Florida. Since then, Colorado State fell on tough times. In six out of their next nine seasons, the Rams finished well below .500. However, Jay Norvell has improved the Rams year-by-year, starting with a three-win 2022 season to five wins in 2023 and the eight-win season last year. This season, Colorado State will only return six players. However, like San Jose State, the Rams’ schedule features five teams that are expected to finish in the bottom half of the MWC: San Diego State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Wyoming and New Mexico. The other three are against UNLV, Boise State and Air Force. As long as the Rams can finish 2-1 in those games, a fourth-place finish shouldn’t be a far-fetched expectation.
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5. UNLV Rebels (Prediction: 8-4, 6-2)
A roster overhaul for the Rebels this upcoming season is due in part to new head coach Dan Mullen. Mullen’s last head coaching job in college football was in 2021 when he was at Florida. Now, the 53-year-old head coach is back to keep the Rebels back to the top of the MWC. The last two seasons under Barry Odom (now the head coach at Purdue), the Rebels finished tied for first place in 2023 and tied for second in 2024. Unfortunately, despite being picked to finish second in the coaches’ poll, the jury is still out on this UNLV roster. I’d even expect a loss on the road against a good Miami (Ohio) team as well. Following the conference schedule, UNLV has to face Boise State and Colorado State both on the road. It seems unlikely that UNLV splits those games. Most likely, UNLV will be a respectable opponent to face with a chance to be amongst the top of the MWC, but getting back to the conference championship game feels like a stretch.
6. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (Prediction: 6-6, 4-4)
Now in his fourth season as head coach, Timmy Chang has yet to bring Hawaii to the top of the MWC standings. With 10 players returning (five on offense and four on defense), it feels like now, more than ever, would be the year for Hawaii to leap to the top of the standings. Unfortunately, the Warriors are expected to go with redshirt-freshman Micah Alejando as their starting quarterback. The former three-star recruit, who played sparingly last season, did a fine job.
Two of his top two receivers are returning from last season: Pofale Ashlock and Nick Cenacle are two players to watch out for this upcoming season. Hawaii also returns three offensive linemen—however, the offense ranked 89th last season, and the defense, which returns just four players, ranked 75th. Will those rankings improve this season? I believe they will, but the conference schedule is tough for the Rainbow Warriors. They’ll face Air Force, Colorado State, San Jose State and UNLV all on the road. Even the nonconference schedule isn’t a walk in the park, facing Arizona on the road, and Sam Houston should give the Warriors difficulty.
7. Fresno State Bulldogs (Prediction: 6-6, 4-4)
After continuing the North Dakota State dominance in the FCS division, Fresno State’s new head coach Matt Entz makes the trip to Fresno, Calif., to bring back the dominance after an average six-win 2024 season. Given that it’s Entz’s first test as a college football FBS head coach. Even though he’s the head coach of a school that plays in the MWC in the Group of 5 conference, expecting Fresno State to be among the top teams in the MWC will be out of the question for Entz. Finishing as a .500 team with losses to teams like Boise State, San Jose State and Colorado State, and beating the teams that Fresno State is better than. Setting a winning culture in Fresno will be the biggest accomplishment for Entz in his first season.
8. Nevada Wolf Pack (Prediction: 5-7, 3-5)
Last season was brutal for Wolf Pack fans. A three-win season, with zero conference wins in Jeff Choate’s first year as Nevada’s head coach, was a tough year to watch. However, in seven of their conference losses Nevada lost, five of them were within one score, so if Nevada can win some of those games, it will show improvement from one year to the next. The most important thing is how will this Nevada team plays against the better teams in their conference. If Choate keeps Nevada on the straight and narrow, I believe they will be primed for bigger things come 2026.
9. New Mexico Lobos (Prediction: 4-8, 2-6)
Head coach Jason Eck makes his debut as an FBS coach this year after three years as the head coach of Idaho. New Mexico’s schedule is daunting: Michigan and UCLA both on the road in their nonconference schedule, the conference schedule features San Jose State, Boise State, UNLV, Colorado State and Air Force are all on the docket for New Mexico. The biggest question that will need to be answered is how Eck will handle the heat of coaching against far better teams than what he saw at the FCS level, and the environments that the first-year head coach will be facing. A four-win season and a two-win season for a New Mexico team that returns five starters on offense and defense shouldn’t be out of the question. What will be tough is how his team will show up against some of the best teams in the conference is the biggest question mark.
10. Utah State Aggies (Prediction: 3-9, 1-7)
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall moves from New Mexico to Utah State. A bizarre situation that will make the Oct. 25 meeting between these two teams very intriguing, and even though both teams will struggle, it could be a must-watch game for the sicko college football fan or those that back the MWC.
Whatever the case, setting a culture in his first season has to be the ultimate goal for Mendenhall. This is Mendenhall’s fourth stop as a head coach in his career, and his best first-year record was a 6-6 season in 2005 at BYU. Utah State has a difficult schedule—two winnable games will be played against New Mexico and Nevada, but other than that, it’s going to be rough sailing for Utah State in Mendenhall’s first season.
11. Wyoming Cowboys (Prediction: 2-10, 1-7)
Head coach Jay Sawvel’s stay at Laramie, Wyo., could be short if the Cowboys don’t show signs of improvement this year. As you can see by my prediction, it doesn’t appear that it will be the case. Like Utah State, the only winnable game on the schedule for Wyoming is against Nevada, and that’s not a guaranteed walk-in-the-park game for the Cowboys, with the expectation they will be winless going into that game on Nov. 22. A program that showed great success under Craig Bohl in 10 seasons could be hitting the head coaching market for the 2026 season.
12. San Diego State Aztecs (Prediction: 3-9, 1-7)
The good news for San Diego State fans is that the team returns even more players this year than Boise State. The unfortunate part is they return three players on offense that ranked 109th last season, 10 on defense from a group that ranked 114th. San Diego State also has a head coach, Sean Lewis, who has never had more than a seven-win season. With all that being said, does it make sense to put the Aztecs last? When you look at their schedule, the only winnable home game is against Wyoming at home. The Aztecs will struggle and most likely will be head coach hunting for the 2026 season, because there needs to be a new direction for a team that once had residency at the top of the MWC.
