With the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, there will be a team that gets in that most people didn’t have on their early-season list of playoff teams. Think Indiana from last year. The 2025 version of a surprise playoff team will again come from the Big Ten, but it won’t be the Hoosiers. This year’s surprise team will be the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Head coach Bret Bielema has molded his program into a tough-nosed, slobber-knocking group that wins with toughness and discipline. The Illini ranked No. 15 in the country with 40.15 penalty yards per game. That is impressive since Illinois uses a run-first type of offense. Bielema likes to beat his opponents into submission with the run game.
Star quarterback Luke Altmyer returns for his senior season, looking to improve on a spectacular 2024 season. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound righty threw for 2,717 yards with 22 TDs and only six INTs. Altmyer chipped in on the run game, adding 217 yards and four rushing TDs. That number is misleading, as Altmyer was sacked 32 times and lost 204 rushing yards from those sacks.
While 32 sacks seem like a lot, this Illini offensive line is looked at by some as a contender for the Joe Moore Award. All five starters from 2024 return with four seniors and one junior. The bookend tackles, Melvin Priestly and JC Davis, will be selected in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Illinois defense returns nine starters from a unit that gave up only 21.69 points per game in 2024. Redshirt junior safety Matthew Bailey burst on the scene in 2024. Bailey led the Illini in both tackles with 94 and passes broken up with seven. The top five tacklers return for Bielema and should be one of the better defenses in the country.
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2025 Fighting Illini Schedule
When it comes to Illinois’ schedule, there are three tiers to work with. Presumed wins, presumed losses and toss-ups. Realistically, there are only four hurdles that cause concern with the schedule. We can presume wins against Western Illinois, Western Michigan, Purdue, Maryland and Northwestern.
The only presumed loss is against defending National Champion Ohio State. Which leaves the toss-up games, at Duke, at Indiana, USC, at Washington, Rutgers and at Wisconsin. This group of games will either make or break Illinois and determine if it makes the playoff.
Despite what Curt Cignetti will tell you, Indiana will not repeat last year’s success, so I give that one to Illinois. Rutgers plays a similar style to the Illini, but Bielema’s squad is more talented and better coached. Wisconsin has struggled under Luke Fickell, and I don’t see that changing this season. To me, those are three wins for Illinois.
That leaves three difficult games with little margin for error. This schedule is not looked at as a murderer’s row, so I think three losses will doom Illinois’ CFP plans. Game two at Duke is tricky as head coach Manny Diaz has a solid defense, but questions on offense. It will be tough but I think the Illini can pull out a road nonconference win.
At home against USC will be tough, but is a winnable game. Cross-country games are difficult for the road team, and even though this is only halfway across the country, there is still an adjustment for the Trojans. USC should be better on defense than they were in 2024, but I think Illinois pulls out the home win against USC.
With the cross-country or halfway-across-the-country, travel affecting the road team, I think this is where Illinois slips up again. Depending on who you listen to, Washington will either be the surprise team in the Big Ten or will fall flat in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch. By the middle of October, I think the Huskies will have any offensive issues worked out. The fatigue that aided in the USC win will ultimately cost Illinois this game in Washington.
Final Word
A 10-2 regular season record, with wins against a solid USC team and on the road against a better-than-average Duke team, should help bolster the Illini’s CFP resume. Depending on the opponent and location of the game, Illinois might be able to not only make the CFP but make a bit of a run while they’re at it.
