By Brian Mclaughlin
Leave it to the FCS to scramble the bracketology eggs once again. And with the new format of
seeding through No. 16, it makes it even crazier in 2024.
This year has been exclusively the MVFC-Big Sky territory when it comes to who owns the
expensive property at the top of the playoff picture. Where’s the parity among conferences? The
answer is, it doesn’t exist. The drop off after these two super conferences is massive, and the
playoff bracket is going to reveal exactly that on the FCS Selection Show today/Sunday, which
will be broadcast at 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Let’s get into the debates that surround this crazy picture:
NOTE: (&) means clinched its conference’s automatic bid; (*) means it beat an FBS opponent
this year, which can help boost a team’s resume but isn’t a guarantee of a lift.
THE TOP TIER (first-round byes, home-field advantage in round two)
These are the teams sitting in the best positions, obviously. And honestly? If
any team other than a Big Sky or MVFC team occupies a top-six spot? I think it’s wrong and not
deserved. These are the teams that play the tougher schedules.
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The next question is, who wins the circular firing squad situation in the MVFC based on South
Dakota’s stunning late-game comeback win over North Dakota State this weekend? Well, South
Dakota only has one FCS loss this year – to two-time defending national champion South
Dakota State, and that went to overtime. USD beat NDSU this weekend, and as we all know
NDSU beat SDSU in the Dakota Marker game earlier this year.
Look, these three teams can
play with anyone in the FCS and have challenging schedules, but regardless of SDSU getting
the MVFC official automatic bid, the No. 2 seed behind Montana State should go to the Coyotes. Period.
Once we get to the lower four seeds of the top eight tier? I think this is pretty easy. UC Davis
gave Montana State fits last week and nearly won that game in California. UC Davis also beat
Idaho when they played. The Aggies are a solid No. 5 and the Vandals are No. 6 in 2024.
Montana State earned No. 1 with its blowout win over in-state rival Montana, along with its FBS
win over a New Mexico team that could be bowl-eligible by this time next week. Richmond and
Mercer represent the CAA and SoCon with 10-1 records against the FCS but have head-scratching losses to unranked Wofford and Samford respectively on their resumes while the six
teams above them have no head-scratchers.
I don’t see any other team that has an argument for a Top-eight seeding and a first-round bye with a
relaxing Thanksgiving and feast time as a reward. Everyone else in the FCS playoff picture will
be working within 48 hours of having a holiday feast.
And now, we move on to this new seeding tier: No. 9 through No. 16
THE MIDDLE TIER (home-field in first-weekend games, on the road round two)
These schools will be at home for their first
playoff games, but they’ll be playing two days after Thanksgiving. But considering many of them
aren’t used to being in the FCS postseason, they’re probably going to be pretty stoked Sunday
during the FCS Selection Show.
SEMO looked like a Top eight seed until it dropped two of its last three games. How strong will the
RedHawks be in the next few weeks? If I were to heap praise on this tier’s top teams, it’d be on
UIW’s 9-game winning streak coming in, as well as Illinois State’s best season arguably since
ISU made the national title game back in 2014. Rhody also has performed as well as it ever has
in its FCS/I-AA era, with only a 3-point loss to soon-to-be FBS Delaware soiling its record.
I
won’t lie, the rest of this group will probably be challenged by the non-seeds Thanksgiving
week, and will have trouble in the second round should they advance. There’s a big difference
between this seeding tier (which is new in 2024) and the Top eight.
Final Eight In
This is a mixture of schools that aren’t seed-worthy, as well as at-large berths. This was tough but is based on data
points like schedule strength and who is coming into this time of the season playing the best
football.
Also, keep in mind that these eight teams are the ones that will travel to the No. 9 through No.
16 seeds. Obviously, that will be geographically based as close to what the committee can put
together. I’m not attempting to jump into those matchups, I’m only trying to name the teams I
think are worthy of playing next weekend and will be traveling two days after turkey day.
To be honest? CCSU is a surprise here, to me, as it knocked off Duquesne to claim the NEC
title and automatic bid just this weekend. I didn’t see that coming. They’ll likely travel to a CAA
team and will face an early loss. Lehigh has been hot down the stretch, and Drake may be in
the non-scholarship Pioneer League – but keep in mind that they went on the road and knocked
off the Big Sky’s Eastern Washington.
For the remaining at-large teams? Eastern Kentucky, Northern Arizona, and New Hampshire
are playing the best football right now. UT Martin has an FBS win over Kennesaw State but has
struggled down the stretch. Tennessee Tech has gotten hot with five wins as well.
JUST MISSED LIST
I’d probably go with Tennessee State and Western
Carolina here. They had their moments this year, but just missed.
