By Mark Pszonak
On Tuesday morning, ESPN’s computer model, the Football Power Index, released its 2025 projections. One of the many stats the ESPN computer’s pump out is the percentage each team in the country has to win the national championship. This year, only 12 teams have a better than 2.0% chance to win.
1. Texas: 24.1%
2. Georgia: 17.9%
Alabama: 10.8%
3. Ohio State: 10.8%
4. Penn State: 7.0%
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5. Oregon: 4.3%
6. Clemson: 2.8%
7. Notre Dame: 2.7%
Miami: 2.7%
8. Tennessee: 2.3%
Texas A&M: 2.3%
9. LSU: 2.1%
Looking at these numbers, aside from Texas and Georgia, the ESPN computers believe everyone else is a serious longshot. Considering both the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new quarterbacks, even though one has the Manning name, it makes these projections somewhat bold.
A slightly deeper dive shows that only Penn State, Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU actually return their starting quarterback from 2024. New quarterbacks can obviously win a National Championship (see Ohio State in 2024), but bringing back experience is always a plus.
Only time will tell how close any of these stats are to reality, but in June it is all that we have.
