The Big 12 will undergo many changes entering the 2023 season, but one constant, at least for one last autumn, is the inclusion of Oklahoma and Texas before both schools enter the SEC in 2024.
Kansas State looks to remain in the title hunt after a thrilling overtime victory against then-ranked No. 3 TCU last December. Other threats include Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati, as the Bearcats are one of four schools to enter the Big 12 after their long-standing stint in the AAC. There are still unknowns about Iowa State and West Virginia after underwhelming seasons in 2022, but nonetheless, the Big 12 has entered a new era of college football.
14. West Virginia
Predicted record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)
Neal Brown’s tenure in Morgantown has been marred by underwhelming results, making the upcoming 2023 season a make-or-break moment for him and his West Virginia team. With a record of 22-25 since his arrival in 2019, including a disappointing 5-7 season last year, the pressure is on for Brown to turn things around.
One primary concern is the team’s defense, which allowed an average of 32.9 points per game and suffered numerous close losses a year ago. The departure of defensive end Dante Stills to the NFL might come back to bite the Mountaineers, further exacerbating the team’s defensive woes. The inconsistent secondary must also step up in a big way after allowing 14 plays of 40 yards or more.
On a positive note, the offense can find balance in returning four starters on the offensive line. This, coupled with a talented group of running backs led by CJ Donaldson, provides the potential for a solid performance on the ground. However, the battle for the starting quarterback position race between Garrett Greene and Nicco Marchiol expects to continue well into the fall, adding another layer of uncertainty to the team’s prospects.
Finding consistency in 2023 is paramount for Brown and his team. Their success hangs in the balance, and positive progress will determine the trajectory of his tenure at Morgantown.
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13. Iowa State
Predicted record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)
Iowa State had a tumultuous season last year, finishing with a 4-8 record and missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2016. However, fans should remain optimistic about 2023 if things go Iowa State’s way. While Matt Campbell’s team expects to bounce back and attempt to win at least six games, a rigorous schedule that includes a nonconference game against Iowa and road matchups against Oklahoma and Baylor may prevent the Cyclones from doing so.
Quarterback Hunter Dekkers, who ranked fourth in the conference in total offense per game with 259.8 yards and 19 touchdowns, will return to lead the team. The offense must find a new top receiver after Xavier Hutchinson left for the NFL. The offensive line also struggled to open up holes for running backs last year, so improvement in that area is crucial.
On the defensive side, Iowa State’s strong presence led the Big 12 with the fewest points allowed per game (20.3) and helped maintain a stingy rush defense. Though the team will miss critical players like edge rushers MJ McDonald IV and MJ Anderson, along with safety Anthony Johnson, the defense still boasts seven returning starters and a solid foundation with coordinator Jon Heacock.
12. UCF
Predicted record: 5-7 (4-5 Big 12)
Thanks to their talented quarterback, John Rhys Plumlee, coach Gus Malzahn’s Knights team is poised to make a strong showing in the Knights’ first-ever Big 12 season. While there are some gaps to fill in the trenches, Plumlee’s teammates at receiver, Kobe Hudson and Javon Baker, and running back RJ Harvey provide a solid foundation.
Defensively, Addison Williams is taking over as signal-caller after Travis Williams’ departure. Addison Williams has six returning starters, including Ricky Barber and Tre’Mon Morris-Brash, who have been named preseason All-Big 12 players. However, the team must focus on building depth at linebacker and replacing three starters in the secondary during the remainder of the offseason.
With its lack of experience against Big 12 schools, expect growing pains, but UCF will be in the thick of the bowl picture until the season’s final week.
11. Cincinnati
Predicted record: 6-6 (5-4 Big 12)
The Bearcats have been quite good over the past five years, winning at least nine games per year and making it to the College Football Playoff in 2021. However, the program is undergoing a transition period for the 2023 season.
The team faces challenges with a new coach in Scott Satterfield and only seven returning starters on the roster. Despite this, the defense, which held opponents to an average of 20.6 points per game last season, is expected to remain a reliable strength, thanks partly to the talent of rising star defensive lineman Dontay Corleone.
The key to success this year will likely depend on Satterfield’s ability to develop the offense. Emory Jones, formerly of Florida and Arizona State, is expected to be the starting quarterback, and the Bearcats will utilize the transfer portal to bolster the team’s thin receiving corps. However, it’s worth noting that only one starter is returning on the offensive line.
The Bearcats have a brutal schedule but have the benefit of home-field advantage against Oklahoma in mid-September, plus a November which will see the Bearcats at home in two of their final four games, including a potential bowl-clinching win-and-in game against Kansas in the last week of the regular season.
10. Houston
Predicted record: 7-5 (5-4 Big 12)
Houston has a challenging season ahead as it debuts in the Big 12 after a rollercoaster 8-5 record last year. The defense needs to improve its depth, especially since it allowed an average of 32.2 points per game last season, a significant increase from the 20.4 points allowed in 2021.
While only four starters are returning under coordinator Doug Belk, the team has some promising players up front, like Nelson Ceaser and Chidozie Nwankwo. Additionally, the secondary must elevate its performance after allowing 32 passing touchdowns last season.
The team will benefit from the addition of Donovan Smith, who transferred from Texas Tech to become their new quarterback. Tony Mathis, a former West Virginia running back, will help fill the gap left by Alton McCaskill IV, who transferred to Colorado. The receiving corps, led by Matthew Golden, is expected to be one of the strongest in the Big 12. These changes should bring some freshness to the team and help the Cougars go bowling.
9. BYU
Predicted record: 7-5 (5-4 Big 12)
BYU has a challenging road to a bowl this season, with a non-conference game against Arkansas and games against five of the potential top six teams in the Big 12. To excel and achieve a winning record in their Big 12 debut, the Cougars will need a strong quarterback performance from Kedon Slovis, a transfer from Pitt. They must depend on the portal to fill critical gaps in the offensive line and running back positions (such as Aidan Robbins from UNLV).
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The team’s defense struggled last year, allowing an average of 29.5 points per game and 172.7 rushing yards per game. The inconsistency prompted coach Kalani Sitake to hire Jay Hill as the new coordinator.
Hill, who previously worked as an assistant under Kyle Whittingham at Utah and served as Weber State’s head coach from 2014-22, has a solid foundation with seven returning starters to kick off the rebuild process. However, transitioning to a new conference and scheme will undoubtedly necessitate a period of adjustment.
8. Kansas
Predicted record: 6-6 (5-4 Big 12)
In Lance Leipold’s second year as coach, the Jayhawks showcased significant progress, improving from a 2-10 record in 2021 to 6-7 a year ago.
With 17 starters returning, including talented quarterback Jalon Daniels, many anticipate Kansas to take another step forward in ’23 and potentially become a dark horse candidate for the Big 12 title game.
While the offense appears to be in good shape, with most of the group returning from ’22, the defense is the central focus after allowing 35.5 points per game last season. Although the linebackers seem dependable and the secondary should improve, the defensive line is a concern due to the departure of all four starters from last year.
The Jayhawks will be tested in nonconference play against Illinois, one of the Big Ten’s biggest surprise teams from a year ago. As per usual, however, the Jayhawks will face the gauntlet of the Big 12, which may trip them up later in the season.
7. Baylor
Predicted record: 7-5 (5-4 Big 12)
The Baylor Bears struggled last season after a promising start and finished with a 6-7 record after winning the Big 12 Championship in 2021. Despite three losses by one score, their defense regressed significantly, allowing 30.7 points per game in the conference the previous year and only 19.8 points in 2021. Additionally, they forced fewer turnovers.
Despite new quarterback Blake Shapen struggling at times, the offense ranked ninth in red zone offense in the Big 12. In May, coach Dave Aranda named Shapen the No. 1 option over Sawyer Robertson, a transfer from Mississippi State.
The Bears have a strong ground game with Richard Reese leading the way, but they need to improve their passing attack and rebuild their offensive line, as four new starters will be joining the team. These keys are essential if the Bears want to return to the conference title game.
6. Texas Tech
Predicted record: 8-4 (6-3 Big 12)
Texas Tech could surpass preseason expectations to reach the Big 12 championship game this year, especially after how 2022 concluded. With a 51-48 victory against Oklahoma and a 42-25 win against Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl, the Red Raiders finished 2022 on a high note.
Following a strong season in ’22, quarterback Tyler Shough returns, and receiver Jerand Bradley is poised to rank among the league’s best.
An offensive line that allowed 41 sacks last year must improve for the Red Raiders to return to form. The defense is still a work in progress for coach Joey McGuire, but this unit is experienced with six returning starters and features two of Big 12’s top linemen in Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford Jr.
5. Kansas State
Predicted record: 8-4 (6-3 Big 12)
Despite the departure of running back Deuce Vaughn and the need to replenish their secondary with new defensive backs, the Big 12 shouldn’t underestimate Chris Klieman’s No. 9 Wildcats in their pursuit of back-to-back Big 12 titles.
K-State boasts an emerging talent at quarterback with Will Howard, while their offensive line, fronted by preseason All-American Cooper Beebe, stands out as one of the top units in college football. In addition to rebuilding their weakened secondary, the Wildcats must find a way to fill the void left by Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who contributed 8.5 sacks in the 2022 season.
4. Oklahoma State
Predicted record: 9-3 (7-2 Big 12)
Having maintained a winning record since 2005, Mike Gundy and the Cowboys are no strangers to success. Despite facing more uncertainties heading into the ’23 season, there is reason to believe this team can once again achieve a winning record and secure a bowl appearance.
The scheduling also works in their favor, with five Big 12 home games and no matchups against Texas, Texas Tech, and TCU. The quarterback competition involving Alan Bowman, Garret Rangel, and freshman Zane Flores will intensify in the fall.
Still, the offense can rely on the formidable duo of Ollie Gordon II and Jaden Nixon, supported by an experienced offensive line.
Adding Bryan Nardo as the new defensive coordinator, who comes from Gannon, adds an element of surprise. However, with only two returning starters, transitioning to a 3-3-5 defensive scheme may require some adjustment.
3. TCU
Predicted record: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
The task ahead for coach Sonny Dykes is challenging as he tries to replicate last year’s successful run to the Big 12 title game and national championship appearance.
The No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs must find suitable replacements for several crucial offensive players like quarterback Max Duggan, running back Kendre Miller, and receiver Quentin Johnston. However, new quarterback Chandler Morris shows potential to emerge as a standout player.
Moreover, Dykes has strengthened the team’s skill positions by utilizing the transfer portal. Although the defense lost a few key starters, it still expects to be the team’s primary strength early on. The return of cornerback Josh Newton will provide stability to the pass defense.
2. Oklahoma
Predicted record: 10-2 (8-1 Big 12)
Last season was tough for Brent Venables, as Oklahoma suffered its first losing season since 1998. However, with some better luck (the team lost all five of their one-score games) and improvements on defense, particularly in limiting yards per snap and stopping the run during conference play, the Sooners have the potential to bounce back and earn a spot in the Top 25.
Venables has utilized the transfer portal to strengthen the defense, and the team’s second year with this coaching staff expects to bring significant improvement.
During the offseason, the team’s priorities include filling a few starting positions on the defensive line and finding new playmakers at the receiver position, with Marvin Mims no longer on the team. Nevertheless, the offense has a solid foundation, led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel and running backs Gavin Sawchuk and Jovantae Barnes.
1. Texas
Predicted record: 11-1 (9-0 Big 12)
In Austin, it’s been tough to exceed preseason expectations in the past, but Steve Sarkisian’s No. 20 Texas team has all the necessary pieces to potentially win 10 games and be the top team in the Big 12 this season.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers won the starting job in the spring and will have a talented group of receivers to throw to, including All-American Xavier Worthy and emerging talent Ja’Tavion Sanders at tight end. The offensive line will also benefit from having all five starters back.
While the defense improved last year, allowing fewer points per game, the absence of linebacker DeMarvion Overshown will be felt. Nevertheless, with six returning starters, Texas is still expected to have one of the top defenses in the Big 12.
Texas’ biggest game takes place in Week 2, a road contest against the Alabama Crimson Tide. While the Big 12 will be a gauntlet for the Longhorns, to be the best, Texas will have to beat the best. It goes without saying, given Nick Saban’s track record.
The “Red River Showdown” game could end up being a Big 12 title game preview, as the Longhorns and Sooners meet up in Week 6. The game will take place at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Tex., before being rebranded as the “Red River Rivalry” game in 2024.
Big 12 Championship: Texas 38, Oklahoma 35
The only way for this long-standing era of Big 12 football to conclude is to have Texas and Oklahoma meet in the title game. So much history and bad blood would be on the line, as Texas has gunned for Oklahoma the last few years but has never gotten to the level that Longhorn fans have waited for over the last two decades.
Quinn Ewers can finally prove to himself that he earned the No. 1 spot at quarterback with a masterful performance, and assuming Dillon Gabriel has a breakout season, this could end up being a legendary dual with a surprising twist as the minutes wind down. Perhaps a missed field goal or defensive stand could be the difference in a berth or exit in the College Football Playoff.
