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College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

An Early Outlook on the SEC East

Zain Bando drops his early projections for the SEC East heading into the 2023 season.

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Nov 5
Nov 5

The next installment of the “Early Outlooks” summer series will examine the SEC, previewing some of college football’s national conglomerates and answering some of the most challenging questions entering the 2023 season.

Can the Georgia Bulldogs repeat? Will Florida make a bowl game? Is Tennessee still a threat to win a conference title even with the loss of Hendon Hooker?

Nonetheless, the SEC remains the most prevalent league in the sport. With that, the SEC East has the No. 1 Bulldogs, who are destined for another national title and an undefeated season.

Below is an overview of where each team sits ahead of fall camp and a new era in television rights and conference realignment.

My SEC East 2023 Predictions

7. Florida – 2023 record prediction – (4-8, 3-5 SEC)

Despite the SEC East being one of the most competitive divisions in football, Billy Napier led the Gators to a bowl berth in 2022 in his first season as coach. Unfortunately for Florida, it will regress in 2023 if it doesn’t maintain a solid rushing attack and healthy quarterback play.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Gators didn’t upgrade from Anthony Richardson who was drafted fourth-overall by the Indianapolis Colts in April. They arguably got worse, signing injury-prone ex-Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz and giving Jack Miller another shot. Miller barely saw playing time at Ohio State, only completing 7-of-14 passes in his two years with the Buckeyes before transferring to the Gators ahead of last season.

Although Richardson was the engine that made the Gator offense click, Miller did see brief action as well, going 13-for-22 and completing less than 60% of his passes with zero touchdowns to show for it. With inconsistency under-center, it’s cause for concern.

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At running back is where the Gators will excel the most and likely keep the offense in close contests deep into the fourth quarter. The Gators return Montrell Jackson for the second-straight year, who helped propel Florida’s ground game with 841 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Gators will also see Trevor Etienne and Cam Carroll get touches, as both have explosively of their own to make the Gators’ running back room the most depth-driven out of all the position groups.

Despite Mertz’s struggles in the Big Ten, especially with a Wisconsin offense that went through dry spells throughout the season, Mertz actually benefits from a move like this as he’ll be teamed with the likes of Ricky Pearsall, who led all receivers with five touchdowns and 660 receiving yards. If Mertz can learn the system quickly, the Gators might surprise some people with a few mid-to-late-season conference upsets.

Florida gets a new defensive coordinator in Austin Armstrong from Southern Mississippi. This is the help the team desperately needed after injuries depleted them a year ago. The Gators return some familiar faces in Princely Umanmielen to fine-tune his NFL Draft stock. Also returning is Tyreak Sapp, as he secured 20 tackles. The pair will look to become a dynamic duo on the defensive front.

The major knock on Florida is its gauntlet of a schedule, which includes a home game against Tennessee in Week 3, a trap game on the road in Lexington, a home date with Georgia, and back-to-back road games against LSU and Missouri before closing the season against Florida State at home Thanksgiving weekend. If a losing skid occurs, a bowl game opportunity is likely dead.

Finding six wins will be a challenge, but Napier has successfully turned around programs like Louisana, as he went 33-3 in three years. Anything is possible, especially for a program with only two stints of back-to-back losing seasons since 1979.

6. Vanderbilt – 2023 record prediction – (6-6, 3-5 SEC)

Clark Lea returns for his third season at Vanderbilt as it looks to reach its first bowl game since 2018. The Commodores have only had four winning seasons since 1959, as their last came in 2008. 

However, all signs in 2023 point upward for a Vanderbilt team still learning how to win on a consistent basis. Sophomore A.J. Swann returns at quarterback, showing flashes of brilliance with 10 touchdown tosses to only two interceptions. Swann’s best statistical performance came against Ole Miss in early October, finishing 27-for-38 and tossing two touchdowns in a 52-28 loss.

It is undoubtedly a sign of things to come, but fortunately for Swann, he’ll have plenty of help around him to make the offense start to click. 

Swann will have a plethora of receivers to spread the ball around to, including Will Sheppard, Jayden McGowan, and Quincy Skinner Jr., to name a few. Sheppard, however, has quickly made a name for himself as a go-to offensive weapon, especially in the last two seasons. The soon-to-be senior made his presence felt as he caught 13 touchdown passes and racked up over 1,000 receiving yards. 

 With more consistency, it’s only a matter of time before Swann to Sheppard is a weekly occurrence as Vanderbilt seeks a bowl berth.

Defensively is where things might go south. The last two seasons have proven a disaster for a Commodores team that finished at the bottom of the SEC in team scoring defense, failing to score a single interception-turned-touchdown last season.

On the bright side, Miles Capers, a primary pass rush target, is back after a season-ending injury and should fit right in at the defensive end. The Commodores added depth from the transfer portal and have newer pieces to rebuild the defensive unit, including Aeneas DiCosmo from Stanford. 

Like Florida, Vanderbilt’s schedule is a doozie, but it reeks of the benefit of getting critical home games against Kentucky, Missouri, and Georgia in three out of four games from the end of September through mid-October.

Winning at least two of those games could go a long way in defining the season’s success. Vanderbilt closes the season with Tennessee in Knoxville, which could very well be a win-and-in scenario for the Commodores’ bowl chances if the cards fall right.

5. South Carolina – 2023 record prediction – (7-5, 4-4 SEC)

Shane Beamer will attempt to take a step forward in continuing South Carolina’s newfound momentum after re-tooling its roster a season ago. 

Spencer Rattler is back at quarterback for the Gamecocks after finishing 8-5. In his new landing spot, Rattler redefined his skills while throwing for over 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns. Rattler also completed nearly 70% of his passes and helped fellow returnee Antwane Wells Jr. become a near-1,000-yard wideout while also hauling in six scores of his own.

The running back position is still a question mark with Juju McDowell getting most of the touches but not making a significant impact on a game. That could change entering his junior season, however, given who the Gamecocks have decided to retrieve. McDowell added 219 yards and two scores as a sophomore after earning SEC Male Freshman of the Year honors one season earlier.

Defensively speaking, the Gamecocks are sound there, too. They return one of the best secondaries in the country with the likes of Nick Emmanwori and DQ Smith, who return for their second seasons. The pair combined for 100 tackles between them, as the defense ranked eighth in the conference.

To go along with that combo is an edge-rusher and seventh-year man, Jordan Strachan, plus a whole host of younger, inexperienced talent who has yet to make a name for themselves.

The Gamecocks’ schedule will see them face conference heavyweights throughout. In a unique turn, they will open the season against North Carolina on a neutral site before their traditional matchups take shape. South Carolina draws road games against Georgia and Tennessee but will get a home-field advantage against Florida, Kentucky, and Clemson. 

South Carolina will likely have to go undefeated out-of-conference before being battle-tested in the SEC, giving itself the best chance at a bowl game and a minimum of six wins.

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4. Missouri – 2023 record prediction – (7-5, 5-3 SEC)

Missouri will look to get over the hump and win a bowl game in Eliah Drinkwitz’s fourth season, as the team finished 6-7 a year ago with several close losses to show for it.

Missouri upgraded its offense with new coordinator Kirby Moore. Moore had success at Fresno State as he helped guide quarterback Jake Heaner to a Mountain West title while Heaner threw for an average of 271 yards per game. With his pass-heavy system, Moore will look to develop the Tigers’ quarterback room in the coming years. With that said, however, his likely starter, Brady Cook, will be that piece under center.

While the running back room is cause for concern with only 156 yards per game last season, Missouri brings back at depth at wide receiver that should pay dividends. Despite the loss of Dominic Lovett to the defending national champion Bulldogs via the transfer portal, the Tigers return local standout Luther Burden and big-play threat Mookie Cooper, who racked up 283 receiving yards last season. Though he didn’t find the end zone, his elusive speed is something to pay attention to entering his junior season.

Defensively, the Tigers should be the strongest and remain in close games. Ranked fourth in the conference, the Tigers return several key starters including Ty’Ron Hopper and Chad Bailey. Both men wreaked havoc at linebacker with over 100-combined tackles and gave the secondary confidence as well. On the backend, expect Kris Abrams-Draine to be a problem for receivers to improve his draft value, along with the rest of the unit who gave offenses fits and nearly handed Georgia its first loss.

The Tigers have a manageable nonconference slate which should see them finish 4-0 or 3-1 before SEC competition kicks in. 

The Tigers avoid Alabama in crossover play but will face the challenge of hosting LSU and traveling to Georgia later in the season. The schedule finishes with Tennessee and Florida at home before traveling to Arkansas in the final week. An upset against a few of these teams should get the Tigers to seven wins, but nonetheless, they will be competitive. 

3. Kentucky – 2023 record prediction – (8-4, 5-3 SEC)

The Kentucky Wildcats reloaded in a push to make a bowl game for the third time in four seasons. Mark Stoops returns for his 10th season and has slowly put together a roster built to compete with the league’s best.

Despite the Wildcats losing Will Levis to the NFL, the quarterback position is set with Devin Leary transferring in from NC State to complement the responsibility of ex-NFL coordinator Liam Coen; he’ll manage an offense that averaged 19.5 points per game and returns to Lexington after spending one year under Sean McVay and the Rams.

While the running game might be Kentucky’s biggest weakness, the Wildcats found a worthy replacement in Ray Davis from Vanderbilt. Davis rushed for over 1,000 yards a year ago and averaged 4.5 yards per carry while also tailing five touchdowns.

An underrated strength, however, is the Wildcats’ receiving corps. The team returns a duo of talented receivers in All-Americans Barion Brown and Dane Key. Therefore, Leary won’t have to lead the offense by himself which adds to his adaptability.

Defensively, the Wildcats are solid almost everywhere but are ready to take the next step of being one of the best units in the nation. 

Deone Walker leads the defense as a potential NFL hopeful at defensive tackle, but they also have youthful experience in Trevin Wallace and D’Eryk Jackson at linebacker to anchor a defense that finished 12th in the FBS last season.

A must-watch game in 2023 is when the Wildcats host Alabama. The Crimson Tide will be in title contention while Kentucky may be fighting for bowl positioning in Week 11.

2. Tennessee – 2023 record prediction – (10-2, 6-2 SEC)

No. 6 Tennessee returns as an SEC title contender after posting its best record since 2007. The Volunteers will have to warm up to Joe Milton at quarterback with the loss of Hendon Hooker to the NFL.

Despite the switch under-center, the Volunteers return a lot of depth for Josh Heupel, which should give them a chance to compete for their first SEC regular season title since 1998.

The Volunteers are predicated on offensive efficiency, which saw them average a nation-best 525.5 yards per game. However, that was with Hooker at quarterback. Milton, who transferred in from Michigan ahead of the 2021 season, will look not to make mistakes and use his legs when called upon as the likely starter.

Although Tennessee will have to adjust at the quarterback position, it does return its two best receivers in Bru McCoy and Squirrel White, who combined for 1,148 yards and six touchdown receptions.

 Jaylen Wright also returns at running back, as he gave the Volunteers stability with 10 touchdowns. Complimenting him is Tennessee’s most reliable tailback, Jabari Small, who added 13 scores of his own and is poised for a 1,000-yard season.

Upfront is still a question mark with Darnell Wright off to the NFL, but the Volunteers used the portal to help fill that void. Its most highly-touted transfer, Andrej Karic, came to the program from the Texas Longhorns.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Volunteers will have to survive. 

Despite winning critical games against teams like Alabama, Tennessee still managed to surrender nearly 300 yards per game in 2022. 

To become more consistent, Tamarion McDonald returns at defensive back and will be joined by fellow transfers Keenan Pili and Gabe Jeudy-Lally, who were both standouts at BYU. Of course, Tennessee still has the likes of Aaron Beasley and Doneiko Slaughter to remain the heart and soul of a defense that upset Clemson in the 2022 Orange Bowl.

The Volunteers should have no trouble beginning the season 5-0 before a Week 6 bye gives them an extra week to prepare for the Crimson Tide. If Tennessee can somehow, someway, knock off Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa, all Tennessee has to worry about is a home date with Georgia the week prior to Thanksgiving to determine a potential SEC East winner.

Nonetheless, the Volunteers are a team that shouldn’t be slept on in 2023.

 

1. Georgia – 2023 record prediction – (12-0, 8-0 SEC)

Last, but certainly not least, the Georgia Bulldogs are the class of the SEC East and the clear favorite to win their division once again. 

They are simply better at every position group and return several key pieces for Kirby Smart, including top tight end target Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey to help out a newer quarterback room led by Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff. With two months to go, the starting quarterback position will be one to watch.

Georgia will look to rekindle the offensive line and maintain its status as one of the best in the country. UGA returns nearly half of their group from a year ago and will look to create gapping holes for Kendall Milton, who scored eight touchdowns a season ago.

Where Georgia has thrived in previous seasons, especially its national championship run, is defensively. Despite losing the likes of Jalen Carter and Kelee Ringo as its main two superstars, the Bulldogs might have gotten better with their departures. Zion Logue and Nazir Stackhouse return at defensive line, as the Bulldogs ranked 10th in total FBS defense a year ago thanks to their efforts. Expect more of the same in 2023.

Schedule-wise, the Bulldogs are in a league of their own and should have no trouble coasting through their divisional foes. A potential game of the year, however, is the Volunteers. As mentioned above, Week 12 (technically 11th overall), could very well determine an SEC East champion. Another benefit is the Bulldogs play only one nonconference opponent that is ranked (No. 25 UTSA), making the schedule that much easier. 

 No. 1 Georgia should win the division once again, barring an epic collapse.

 

  

 

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