I don’t think Arch Manning is headed to the transfer portal despite some smoke out there that it could happen in a certain scenario. Why? Because his last name is Manning.
Quarterbacks don’t sit on the bench in college for years anymore. It’s rare. For every Carson Beck at UGA, there are success stories of guys like Bo Nix at Oregon, Michael Penix Jr. at Washington, or Jordan Travis at Florida State. Each had their own situation, as Nix and Penix had some success as starters but needed a new home to refresh their careers, while Travis just wasn’t a fit at Louisville from the start. Players like Caleb Williams at USC follow coaches, while Quinn Ewers and now Dante Moore are 5-star talents who just weren’t getting what they wanted at Ohio State and UCLA, respectively. For whatever reason, sitting and waiting in college isn’t what QBs do anymore. You either play immediately and have success, or you’re off to the portal. Expect if your last name is Manning.
Manning came into Texas this season with as much hype as any QB I’ve seen since Jimmy Clausen attended Notre Dame in the mid-2000s. It’s unfounded hype for sure, but that’s for another article, but hype nonetheless. He was the No. 1 player in the country by almost every service out there and was expected to follow in the footsteps of his uncles by having a great college career and being the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. And it may still very well happen. And he doesn’t have to go anywhere to do it because his last name is Manning.
While the NFL is becoming more and more wary of college players without a lot of snaps and starts under their belts (Mitch Trubisky and Trey Lance busting out helped this), that won’t matter for Manning. Because he’s a Manning. He’s the exception. So if Arch decides to stay at Texas and sit behind Quinn Ewers for another season, it won’t matter much. He can play one good year and still be taken No. 1 overall. So, leaving would make little sense.
Rumor has it Ewers will return next year because the 2024 NFL Draft is overloaded at quarterback. If that happens, Arch won’t be the starter — it’s just very unlikely. He’s not good enough yet to compete with Ewers. Heck, he wasn’t good enough to beat out a very average Maalik Murphy for the backup job this season. But it’s likely that Murphy and not Manning will head to the portal, and Arch can confidently sit as the backup to Ewers and get plenty of mop-up time as Texas will be a strong team next year. And then 2025 can be his year to start, and if he has any sort of success, he’ll be a high draft pick — because he’s a Manning.
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Naysayers will laugh at the notion that NFL teams will give the benefit of the doubt to a player because of their last name. But naysayers are morons. It’s already happened in the high school ranking evaluation process, and I’m here to tell you that the NFL ranking evaluation process isn’t far from high school. Factors that shouldn’t come into play always do, and it’s why we see horrible QB picks near the top of the draft again and again. Whether it’s ignoring Sam Darnold’s lack of processing speed, falling in love with Zach Wilson’s off-platform garbage, or ignoring Kyler Murray’s petulance, NFL teams are as ignorant as high school talent evaluators in many ways. They all want to be different and stand out, so they stand on the table for things they never should. With the Manning last name, it’s a bit easier to convince yourself based on genetics, and if Arch has a solid season in 2025, he’s all good.
So unless Ewers AND Murphy come back to Texas, I don’t see Manning jumping into the portal, even if it would be exciting to see him at Ole Miss or Tennessee or for him to do the reverse Ewers and leave Texas for Ohio State.
So, while it made sense for Williams, Ewers, and now Moore to jet quickly, it makes no sense for Arch Manning to go anywhere. But admit it, it would be fun if he did, right?
