By Brett Daniels
ESPN has released their first installment of their Football Power Index (FPI) for 2024 and have
ranked each team’s schedule according to that metric. Nine out of the top 10 come from the
SEC with Georgia Tech the lone ACC representative. Teams will change from September to
November due to injuries, player performance (either better or worse than expected),
ANOTHER transfer portal window and the unforeseen effects of weather, turnovers, and funny
bounces along the way. Below are the top 10 hardest schedules according to FPI, a breakdown
of each team’s home and away opponents as well as a floor and ceiling projection. (Numbers
after each team are their FPI ratings)
1. Florida Gators (20)
Home: Miami (23), Samford (FCS), Texas A&M (14), UCF (32), Kentucky (34), LSU (13), Ole Miss (16)
Away: Mississippi St (49), Tennessee (9), Texas (3), Florida St (11)
Neutral: Georgia (1)
This is one of the toughest schedules in recent college football history. Florida will face eight top-25 teams with none of their opponents rated lower than 49. Coach Billy Napier has
added talent to the roster, but will it be enough to get a bowl bid? Based off FPI ratings (Florida is 20th), the Gators are expected to finish with a 5-7 record for the second straight
year. The floor for Florida is 2-10 with wins over Samford and Mississippi State, the
ceiling is 7-5 with surprise wins over two of LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Florida
State.
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2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (49)
Home: Eastern Kentucky (FCS), Toledo (100), Florida (20), Texas A&M (14), Arkansas (44), UMass (125), Missouri (10)
Away: Arizona St (63), Texas (3), Georgia (1), Tennessee (9), Ole Miss (16)
As brutal as the Florida schedule is, this one is not far behind. The Bulldogs have a few
more likely wins on the schedule than the Gators with home dates against EKU, Toledo,
and UMass and an away date in Tempe against Arizona State. Other than that, it’s hard
to find a win against the SEC schedule with Arkansas being the only game that could be
a close contest. Away games against Texas and Georgia in successive weeks are the
type of things that keep coaches up at night.
The floor for Mississippi State is 4-8 with all of
their wins coming from the non-conference slate. The ceiling would be 6-6 with the
Bulldogs winning the toss-up game against Arkansas and catching Florida napping when
they visit Starkville.
3. Georgia Bulldogs (1)
Home: Tennessee Tech (FCS), Auburn (19), Mississippi St (49), Tennessee (9), UMass
(125), Georgia Tech (54)
Away: Kentucky (34), Alabama (5), Texas (3), Ole Miss (16)
Neutral: Clemson (15), Florida (20)
The only reason that Georgia is not higher on this list is the fact that the No. 1 rated
Bulldogs can’t play themselves. The schedule opens with a neutral site game against
Clemson at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, includes road games at Alabama, Texas,
and Ole Miss along with the annual showdown with Florida in Jacksonville. Tennessee
will visit Between the Hedges in November before the Dawgs close out the regular
season against in-state rival Georgia Tech on Black Friday. The schedule is the toughest
that Georgia has had since the 2020 season which is the last time they lost a regular
season game.
The floor for Georgia is 9-3 with the Dawgs dropping all three road tests
against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. The ceiling is 12-0 which would be a remarkable
span of 4 years without a regular season loss.
4. Kentucky Wildcats (34)
Home: Southern Mississippi (104), South Carolina (33), Georgia (1), Ohio (113), Vanderbilt (76). Auburn (19), Murray State (FCS), Louisville (21)
Away: Ole Miss (16), Florida (20), Tennessee (9), Texas (3)
Kentucky enters the 2024 season with high expectations and a favorable schedule with
four straight home games to start the season and only four road games. However, those road games
won’t be easy as the Cats must go to Oxford, the Swamp, Rocky Top, and Austin.
In addition, number No. 1 rated Georgia visits Kroger Field in Week three. The floor for the Cats is 4-8 with
wins over non-conference foes Southern Miss, Ohio, and Murray State and a long SEC
win over Vanderbilt. The ceiling is the opposite at 8-4 with losses at home to Georgia
and on the road to Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas.
5. Auburn Tigers (19)
Home: Alabama A&M (FCS), California (43), New Mexico (117), Arkansas (44), Oklahoma (8), Vanderbilt (76), Louisiana-Monroe (129), Texas A&M (14)
Away: Georgia (1), Missouri (10), Kentucky (34), Alabama (5)
Auburn plays five straight games at home before their first road test at Georgia in Week
six. Away games against Missouri and the Iron Bowl against Alabama along with
Oklahoma and Texas A&M visiting Jordon-Hare will define the Tigers season.
With eight home games total and three of the “body bag” games the Tigers should win easily (although
as we saw last season don’t assume a team from the state of New Mexico is going to roll
over), plus SEC home games against Vanderbilt and Arkansas the floor for this season is
7-5 with a road win over Kentucky. The ceiling is 8-4 if Auburn can find a way to steal
one against Texas A&M or Oklahoma at home or one of the crazy Iron Bowl games
against Alabama on the road.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide (5)
Home: Western Kentucky (109), South Florida (88), Georgia (1), South Carolina (44), Missouri (10), Mercer (FCS), Auburn (19)
Away: Wisconsin (39), Vanderbilt (76), Tennessee (9), LSU (13), Oklahoma (8)
After one of the more remarkable runs in college football history, Nick Saban decided to
retire after the 2023 season. New Crimson Tide Head Coach Kalen DeBoer has won at
every level and took Washington to the National Championship game last year. QB Jalen Milroe returns to lead the offense against a schedule that is a big challenge. The Crimson Tide welcome Georgia (1), Missouri (10), and Auburn (19) to Bryant-Denny and
will face four tough road tests at Wisconsin (39), Tennessee (9), LSU (13), and Oklahoma
(8). The floor for Alabama is 8-4 with losses to Georgia at home and Tennessee, LSU,
and Oklahoma on the road. The ceiling is 12-0 which would be an outstanding result in
DeBoer’s first season in Tuscaloosa.
7. Oklahoma Sooners (8)
Home: Temple (133), Houston (78), Tulane (69), Tennessee (9), South Carolina (44), Maine (FCS), Alabama (5)
Away: Auburn (19), Ole Miss (16), Missouri (10), LSU (13)
Neutral: Texas (3)
Oklahoma will begin its first season in the SEC facing seven top 25 teams (two home, four road, one neutral). The non-conference slate is weak with Maine from the FCS and Temple which
is the next-to-last ranked team in the FPI along with Houston and Tulane.
The floor for
the Sooners is 7-5 with home losses to Tennessee and Alabama, a neutral site loss
against Texas, and splitting the road slate of Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri. The
ceiling is 10-2 with losses against only Alabama and Texas.
8. Tennessee Volunteers (9)
Home: Chattanooga (FCS), Kent State (134), Florida (20), Alabama (5), Kentucky (34),
Mississippi St (49), UTEP (111)
Away: Oklahoma (8), Arkansas (44), Georgia (1), Vanderbilt (79)
Neutral: NC State (28)
Expectations are high on Rocky Top after an off-season that saw an upgrade in talent on
the defensive side of the ball and a group of talented, if unproven wide receivers. QB
Nico Iamaleava looked good in limited action in 2023.
The Volunteers have a
manageable home slate with visits from Florida and Alabama, the biggest tests. The
road schedule sees the Vols visit Oklahoma for their first-ever SEC game and head to
Athens to face the top-rated Bulldogs. A sneaky neutral site game against a good NC
State team in Charlotte awaits in Week 2.
The floor for Tennessee is 7-5 with home
losses against Florida and Alabama, road losses against Oklahoma and Georgia, and a
neutral site loss against NC State. The ceiling for this team is 9-3 with losses against
Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia.
9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (54)
Home: Georgia State (89), VMI (FCS), Duke (52), Miami (20), NC State (28)
Away: Syracuse (70), Louisville (21), North Carolina (42), Virginia Tech (50), Georgia (1)
Neutral: Florida State (11), Notre Dame (7)
The Yellow Jackets will try to build on last season and take the next step back to
relevancy in the ACC. Coach Brent Key has done a good job upgrading the talent on the
Flats and always seems to have his team ready to play. QB Haynes King returns for year
two in Buster Faulkner’s offense after throwing and rushing for a combined 37 TDs.
The
Jackets will open the year in Dublin against Florida State, Notre Dame comes to Atlanta
in a home game that will be played at Mercedes Benz Stadium. Road games at
Louisville and Georgia will also be big tests. Against this schedule, the Jackets could be
a better team than last year and end up with a worse record. The floor this season is 3-9
with wins against Georgia State, VMI, and Syracuse. Three toss-up games against
Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech will determine if the Jackets reach their ceiling
of 6-6.
10. Texas Longhorns (3)
Home: Colorado State (105), UTSA (56), Louisiana-Monroe (129), Mississippi St (49),
Georgia (1), Florida (20), Kentucky (34)
Away: Michigan (12), Vanderbilt (79), Arkansas (44), Texas A&M (13)
Neutral: Oklahoma (8)
The Longhorns are coming off their best season since winning the National Championship in 2005 by winning the Big 12 and making the College Football Playoff.
Eleven players were drafted into the NFL off last year’s squad but plenty of talent
remains in Austin. Heisman candidate QB Quinn Ewers will lead the Longhorns into the
Big House to face Michigan in Week two and welcome the top-rated Georgia Bulldogs in
Week seven. A neutral site clash with Oklahoma at the Red River Shootout precedes the
match-up with the Bulldogs and the rivalry game against the Aggies in College Station
will wrap up the season. The floor for the Longhorns is 9-3 with losses to Michigan,
Georgia, and Oklahoma, the ceiling is to run the table and go 12-0.
