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Can Coach Prime Cover in Pullman? Does “America’s Team” Pay vs. the Terps? Best Week 12 Bets

Rock Westfall looks at betting angles for Week 12’s matchups such as Colorado/Washington State, Michigan/Maryland, and more.

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Oct 8

By Rock Westfall

There are plenty of Week 12 investor class angles for its marquee matchups. 

Wazzu Hosts Colorado in Bowl Elimination Showdown

Colorado (4-6, 1-6) at Washington State (4-6, 1-6) -4

10:30 p.m. ET, FS1 (Friday Night)

Washington State opened as a -3.5-point favorite. The line fluctuates between -4 and -4.5 at various books.

The loser of this game will be eliminated from bowl eligibility. Both teams have had stunning free-falls after promising starts. After a 4-2 start, Colorado has lost four consecutive games. Wazzu was 4-0 before losing its most recent six games.  The Buffaloes and Cougars have two of the worst defenses in college football.

Washington State has covered only one of its last six games. Remarkably, Colorado has failed to get the cash only once in its previous six games, despite losing five of those games straight up.

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“America’s Team” Heads to Maryland

Michigan (10-0, 7-0) at Maryland (6-4, 3-4) +19

12 p.m. ET, FOX 

Michigan opened as a -22 point favorite but was bet down to -19 at most books. Do the Wise Guys see a potential upset, or were they short-selling to come back later at a better price on the Wolverines?

Fox Big Noon Saturday heads to College Park, where the talented but inconsistent Maryland Terrapins get an upset shot at a big price against the Michigan Wolverines.

The perpetual Jim Harbaugh saga continued this week with Harbaugh declaring his squad “America’s Team.” Incredibly, Michigan is winning the propaganda wars by playing the role of the abused victim despite video evidence and a paper trail of receipts that indicate blatant cheating.

Michigan rides the momentum of five payouts in its last six games. The Wolverines have covered eight of their last nine as road chalk. Maryland got the cash in only one of its last five as home pups. Michigan saw the payout window in six of its last seven against the Terps.

Michigan is the tougher and more physical team with the nation’s top-ranked defense. Jim Harbaugh will be out for the regular season, putting OC Sherrone Moore back in charge of the Wolverines. 

Are the Bulldogs Stepping into a Trap at Tennessee?

Georgia Bulldogs (10-0, 7-0) at Tennessee (7-3, 3-3) +10

3:30 p.m. ET, CBS 

Tennessee was taken to the woodshed last week in an embarrassing 36-7 loss at Missouri. That leads to the motivational intangible of wanting to redeem themselves against the undefeated and two-time defending national champions. Last week, the Dawgs curb-stomped Ole Miss 52-17 in a statement to all aspiring challengers to their supremacy.

Despite their loss at Mizzou, the Vols have seen the cashier’s cage in five of their last seven games. On the other hand, Tennessee failed to pay in four of its last five as home dogs. Also, Georgia cashed the winning ticket in six of its last seven against Big Orange.  The Dawgs are a profitable 13-6 ATS as road favorites.  

Resurgent Clemson Hosts North Carolina

North Carolina (8-2, 4-2) at Clemson (6-4, 3-4) -6.5

3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Clemson opened as a -8 point favorite but was bet down to -6.5 at most books.

North Carolina’s 81st-ranked defense remains a problem that fails to complement its 3rd-ranked offense. Clemson has won and covered its last two games. After its win over Notre Dame, coach Dabo Swinney yelled for America to buy stock on his Tigers. Clemson’s 6th-ranked defense will not make things easy for the Tar Heel attack.

UNC has failed to cover three of its last four games. The Tar Heels have paid in four consecutive games as road pups. But Clemson has seen the payout window five straight times as a home chalk of -7 points or less. The Tigers paid in four of their last five against UNC. And Clemson has covered three straight home games against the Tar Heels. 

Senior Day for Irish Against the Dropping Deacs

Wake Forest (4-6, 1-6) at Notre Dame (7-3) -25

3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Notre Dame opened as a -24 point favorite and was bet up to -25.

Following seven consecutive bowl campaigns, Wake Forest must win its final two games to attain eligibility. Coach Dave Clawson’s usually prolific offense ranks an abysmal 113th for scoring after the loss of QB Sam Hartman to Notre Dame in the transfer portal. Hartman and the Fighting Irish are coming off a bye week that followed a loss at Clemson.

Notre Dame is 7-3 against the number this season. Wake Forest has four payouts in ten games. Wake is an impressive 8-2 ATS as road dogs of +21 or more points. At the same time, Notre Dame is 4-5 vs. the odds as home chalk in that same range.

Undefeated Huskies Seek to Bust Beavers’ Dam

Washington Huskies (10-0, 7-0) at Oregon State Beavers (8-2, 5-2) -2

7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This game opened as a pick, but Oregon State was bet up to a -2 point favorite at most books.

Washington may be undefeated, but its 102nd-ranked defense is leaving the back door open far too often. Oregon State’s 14th-ranked scoring offense should find ample opportunities to exploit U-Dub.

The Huskies have paid in only one of their last six games. The Beavers have covered four of their most recent six. Oregon State got the money in its last four games as a home chalk of a field goal or less. The Beavers got the money in their last three games with Washington.

Oregon State has the motivational intangible of being left behind in conference realignment. Washington is off to the prestigious Big Ten next year. The Senior Day home crowd at Reser Stadium will be out for blood.

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