By Brett Daniels
We have reached the penultimate edition of the College Football Playoff rankings and with only conference championship games remaining, the rankings and matchups may or may not change all that much. There are some scenarios that will affect whether some teams make the field and others that just will affect seeding.
Check out the full College Football Playoff Top 25 for games played through Saturday, November 30.
Where does your team rank as we head toward conference championship weekend and Selection Day?#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/59djj3tbfp
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 4, 2024
A History Lesson
Prior to the creation of the Bowl Coalition in 1992, teams went to bowls with conference tie-ins. The Big 10 and Pac 10 sent their champions to the Rose Bowl, the SEC champion went to the Sugar Bowl, the Big 8 had ties with the Orange Bowl, and the Southwest Conference champion played in the Cotton Bowl. This system produced split National Champions in 1990 (Colorado/AP, Georgia Tech/Coaches), and 1991 (Miami/AP, Washington/Coaches) which led to the Bowl Coalition being formed to match the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams. This system worked for a few years despite the Rose Bowl not being a part of the agreement. In 1992, No. 1 Miami and No. 2 Alabama faced off in the Sugar Bowl in the first “title game” for college football.
The Bowl Alliance was the next iteration of the process to crown a “National Champion” on the field in college football. Once again, the Rose Bowl declined to be a part of the process so the Big 10 and Pac 10 champions were not included in the process. This proved to be a major problem as it produced a split national championship in 1997 with Michigan defeating Washington State in the Rose Bowl and Nebraska defeating Tennessee in the Orange Bowl.
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The 1998 season would see the birth of the Bowl Championship Series that finally included the Rose Bowl and a computer formula that would rank the teams based off their standing in various human and computer polls to produce a No. 1 vs No. 2 match up every season. From 1998 to 2013 this was the process for choosing the participants in the National Championship game and was generally without controversy until the 2004 season. No. 1 USC defeated No. 2 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl to win the BCS National Championship. However, there was another undefeated team in the Auburn Tigers who beat Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Auburn was third in most polls due to their atrocious out of conference schedule which saw them play Louisiana-Monroe, The Citadel, and Louisiana Tech. This was the first chink in the BCS armor, but certainly wouldn’t be the last. The 2011 BCS Championship Game was a rematch of LSU and Alabama with an Oklahoma State team that deserved a shot at the title being left out. The grumbling among the conferences rose to a crescendo and the wheels on the next model started to turn.
The 2014 season was the first with the 4-team playoff with the field selected by 13 humans using polls, strength of schedule, game control, and the ever popular “eye test” along with whatever other criteria they decided to throw in the mix. Controversy with this system started almost from the jump with Big 12 co-champions Baylor (11-1) and TCU (11-1) being left out since the Big 12 played a true round robin schedule and didn’t have a championship game. Ohio State was placed in the field and ended up winning the National Championship. The controversy continued in 2016 where a non-conference champion Ohio State made the field over a 2-loss Penn State and again in 2017 where Alabama made the field despite not winning their division, much less their conference. The most egregious snub was the exclusion of 13-0 ACC Champion Florida State in 2023 in favor of two one-loss conference champions Texas (Big 12) and Alabama (SEC).
All of that led us here to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff where controversy over which teams are selected and where they are seeded is in full cry.
The Current Rankings
It is believed that the final set of rankings that are unveiled this Sunday will strongly resemble the list that was published Tuesday night with conference championship games affecting seeding but not causing teams already in the Top 12 to drop out. Committee chair Warde Manuel said that teams who weren’t playing this weekend in championship games had already been evaluated and wouldn’t be reevaluated due to no new data. The only positions that appear to be in flux would be those of Alabama and SMU. Alabama is the highest ranked 3-loss team but could be pushed out of the field if Clemson wins the ACC Championship game over SMU. There is also a chance that SMU could fall out of the field with a bad loss in the game leaving Alabama as the last team in.
"The commissioners have asked us to rank the Top 25 through the conference championships & that's what we intend to do."
Hear now from Warde Manuel, chair of the #CFBPlayoff selection committee, as he chatted with @ESPN's @ReceDavis after the reveal of tonight's CFP Top 25. 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/rev8xFkpkS
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 4, 2024
The SEC and Big 10 Championship appear to be similar situations where the winner and loser either stay where they are if Oregon and Texas win or flip spots if Penn State and Georgia win. Ranking the loser of either of these games behind Ohio State or Tennessee would send a terrible message that not qualifying for your conference championship game and sitting at home is better than playing an extra game and losing a home playoff game. Notre Dame is locked into a Top 4 ranking and should be the 5th or 6th seed at worst and host a first-round game in South Bend. Another potential chaos agent is the Mountain West championship between Boise State and UNLV. The Broncos defeated the Rebels earlier this season in a close game, so UNLV pulling the upset isn’t out of the question. A UNLV win would cause the Broncos to fall out of the Top 12 and propel the Big 12 winner between Iowa State and Arizona State into one of the seeded byes.
"Since the inception of the College Football Playoff back in 2014, the two most important words to the CFP committee have been 'Roll Tide.'" — @CoachNeuheisel @CoachNeuheisel and @JonesN4mo react to Alabama sneaking into the CFP bracket in the latest rankings pic.twitter.com/4IgVHZxH7e
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) December 4, 2024
12-Team Field
1. Big Ten Winner (Oregon or Penn State)
2. SEC Winner (Texas or Georgia)
3. ACC Winner (Clemson or SMU)
4. Boise State or Big 12 Winner
5. Notre Dame
6. Big Ten Loser (Oregon or Penn State)
7. SEC Loser (Georgia or Texas)
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama or SMU
12. Big 12 Winner or UNLV
First Round Games
Arizona State/UNLV at Notre Dame
Alabama at Penn State/Oregon
Indiana at Georgia/Texas
Tennessee at Ohio State
There is a scenario where Clemson and Boise State both win and Boise State would slide into the 3rd seeded spot and the Big 12 winner would be the 4th seeded spot if they are ranked higher than Clemson. In this situation, Clemson and SMU could be the 11th and 12th seeded teams and would have SMU going to South Bend and Clemson headed to either Eugene or Happy Valley.
