By Brett Daniels
The first field for the 12-team playoff is set and on January 20th in Atlanta one team will hoist the trophy as the champions of college football. Four conference champions received byes into the quarterfinals while the other eight teams will play first-round games on campus. All paths to the championship are not created equal and some teams that aren’t seeded in the top four have a perceived easier path to the finals.
Path to the College Football Playoffs Final Ranked Easiest to Hardest
1. Texas Longhorns
As the 5th seed, Texas will get a home playoff game against Clemson, the lowest-ranked team in the field. Should the Longhorns get by the Tigers as expected they would face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. A win there gets them to Dallas for a presumptive match-up with #1 seed Oregon in the Cotton Bowl. A win against the Ducks would send Texas back to Atlanta for the second time this season for the Championship Game.
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is extremely close to Texas for the “easiest” path to the College Football Championship Game with a very winnable home game against SMU followed by another very winnable game against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. A match-up against either Georgia or Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl will be the biggest obstacle to the Nittany Lions making the trip to Atlanta.
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame will host the first-ever playoff game on campus when #11 Indiana comes to South Bend on December 20th. If the Irish win that game as expected they will face a Georgia team in the Sugar Bowl without their starting QB as Carson Beck seems to be done for the season. Notre Dame would then most likely match up against Penn State for the chance to head to Atlanta.
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4. Georgia Bulldogs
Had Georgia not lost QB Carson Beck to injury they would be a little higher on the list as the draw on that side of the bracket is extremely favorable for the Dawgs. A favorable matchup with Notre Dame or Indiana in the Sugar Bowl followed by an Orange Bowl matchup against Boise State or Penn State would set up well for Georgia to make a third appearance in Mercedes-Benz stadium this season.
5. Oregon Ducks
Oregon is the most talented team in the field and seems to have the fewest holes. They didn’t get a very favorable draw, playing the winner of Ohio State and Tennessee facing off with the Ducks in the Rose Bowl. Should Oregon get past that opponent they would most likely face Texas or Arizona State in the Cotton Bowl.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State and Tennessee are interchangeable at this point in the rankings with the Buckeyes getting a slight nod due to the game being in the Horseshoe. A second-round game against Oregon and a possible semifinal game against Texas or Arizona State would be a challenge.
7. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee has the same challenges as Ohio State with the Volunteers having a slightly harder time since they are going on the road to Columbus.
8. Clemson Tigers
Even though the Tigers are the lowest-ranked team in the field, should they get past Texas they have a favorable match-up with Arizona State in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta. A semifinal against Oregon, Tennessee, or Ohio State would also be a big test.
9. Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils are the hottest team in college football right now and RB Cam Skattebo is a game changer. ASU will match up against Texas or Clemson in the quarterfinals and should they get through that game will have a semifinal matchup against Oregon, Ohio State, or Tennessee.
10. Boise State Broncos
Boise State will face either Penn State or SMU in the quarterfinals and then most likely a Notre Dame or Georgia team who is much more talented on paper than the Broncos.
11. SMU Mustangs
SMU and Indiana are interchangeable here as they both must win difficult first-round games on the road to advance. The Mustangs would have a more favorable quarterfinal game against Boise State should they win against Penn State.
12. Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana has the hardest path to the College Football Playoff, starting with a tough game against instate foe Notre Dame in South Bend at night followed by a Sugar Bowl matchup against Georgia and then most likely a semifinal game versus Penn State or Boise State. If the Hoosiers manage to make it to Atlanta they will have earned the title and eliminate any criticism about their deservingness in the playoff.
This list is another glaring example of how the conference champions should not be guaranteed automatic byes. In theory the #1 seed, in this case Oregon, should have the most favorable path to the final. However, due to seeding vs ranking this isn’t the case and the Ducks have one of the more challenging paths to Atlanta. In contrast, Texas who lost their conference championship game will get the last team to qualify for the field in Clemson and a second-round game with a hot but less talented Arizona State. If the field had been seeded 1-12 as it should have been then the matchups would have been as follows:
First Round
1-Oregon
2-Georgia
3-Texas
4-Penn State
5-Notre Dame/12 Clemson
6-Ohio State/11 Arizona State
7-Tennessee/10 SMU
8-Indiana/9 Boise State
Quarter Finals
1-Oregon vs 8 Indiana/9 Boise State winner
2-Georgia vs 7 Tennessee/10 SMU winner
3-Texas vs 6 Ohio State/11 Arizona State winner
4-Penn State vs 5 Notre Dame/12 Clemson winner
These are much fairer matchups across the board and reward the seeded teams for earning the byes.
