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College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

College Football Playoff Ranking Week 1: What Did We Learn?

What did we find out about how CFP teams were evaluated and which conferences are in the best shape moving forward?

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The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy makes an appearance at the NCAA college football game between Tennessee and Kentucky on Saturday
The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy makes an appearance at the NCAA college football game between Tennessee and Kentucky on Saturday

By Brett Daniels

With the release of the first edition of the College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings on Tuesday, the committee showed how they valued each team and what will be the important criteria for rankings going forward. The SEC was the most represented conference with 8 teams, followed by the ACC with five, and the Big Ten and Big 12 with four each. The Group of Five had two representatives along with independent Notre Dame and whatever you call Washington State.

What Did We Learn?

This is the 10th year of the College Football Playoff Committee and every year the framework for evaluating teams seems to change. This year is no different as there doesn’t seem to be a common theme for evaluation throughout the rankings.

  • Are wins and losses the most important thing? All five remaining undefeated FBS teams are ranked.
  • Is Strength of Schedule/Strength of Record highly valued? Georgia is 1st in Strength of Schedule/Strength of Record while Alabama is 11th. In contrast, Indiana is 103rd, Notre Dame 75th, and Texas 54th. Each team is in the top 11.

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  • How much does the committee value “quality wins”? Oregon has two (Boise State, Ohio State), Georgia has two (Clemson, Texas), BYU has two (Kansas State, SMU), Notre Dame has two (Texas A&M, Louisville), Alabama has two (Georgia, Missouri), Texas A&M has two (LSU, Missouri), while Ohio State (Penn State), Tennessee (Alabama), SMU (Pittsburgh), and Kansas State (Colorado) all have one. Top 10 teams Miami, Texas, Penn St, and Indiana have none.
  • · How much does the “eye test” factor into things? Committee Chairman Warde Manuel said one of the things that factored into Ohio State being ranked ahead of Georgia was the Bulldogs’ struggles on offense as of late. The “eye test” is also the only criteria for having Miami, Texas, Penn State, and Indiana where they are in the rankings.

Conference Outlooks

  • The SEC is well represented in the initial rankings with eight teams in the Top 25. It is a safe bet that the conference will get at least four into the final field of 12. #3 Georgia will face #16 Ole Miss and #7 Tennessee the next two weeks, #5 Texas will visit #14 Texas A&M to finish the season, #11 Alabama will play #15 LSU on Saturday in what is likely an elimination game for both teams. #24 Missouri will not face a ranked team the rest of the season. The interesting question in the SEC is would the committee put a 3-loss Georgia or Alabama in over a 2 loss Missouri or Texas?
  • The Big Ten has four teams in the initial rankings and barring something unexpected it looks like all four teams have a great shot to get into the final field of 12. Oregon and Penn State don’t face a ranked team the rest of the season, Ohio State and Indiana will tee it up in a few weeks in a game that should decide who gets to face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. An 12-0/11-1 Oregon, 11-1 Ohio State, 11-1 Indiana, and 11-1 Penn State would all be locks to get into the field.
  • The ACC has proven not to be the strongest league this season and will most likely only get one team in the final field. SMU or Pitt could make their way into the bracket by upsetting an undefeated Miami in the ACC Championship game by earning the conference’s automatic berth. In that scenario, Miami would probably still make the field at 12-1.
  • The Big 12 is another one berth league unless chaos happens in other conferences and Iowa State or Kansas State upset an undefeated BYU in the conference championship game. Unfortunately for the Cougars, they might not get in even though they deserve to do so.
  • Boise State is in as long as they continue to win, and Army could find themselves in the mix with an upset over Notre Dame in a few weeks.
  • · Notre Dame is in if they win out and out if they lose another game. The Irish will face Florida State, Virginia, Army, and USC to finish the season.

Who Was Snubbed?

  • There isn’t a team that is not currently in the bracket that has an argument to replace one of the 12 teams. SMU at #13 has one ranked win over Louisville while Texas A&M and LSU don’t have wins or a schedule to rival Alabama.
  • Louisville is the only 3-loss team that is currently ranked, and one could argue that their win over #23 Clemson is not as impressive as Vanderbilt’s win over #11 Alabama, although their losses are better.
  • Missouri is ranked 24 despite losing to both ranked teams they have faced in blowout fashion (41-10 vs Texas A&M, 34-0 vs Alabama) and a 3-point overtime win against Vanderbilt.

Questions That Need to Be Answered

  • How will the committee treat the conference championship game? Using current standings, the ACC Championship Game would be Miami vs SMU, SEC Championship Game Georgia vs Texas A&M, Big Ten Championship Game Indiana vs Oregon, and Big 12 Championship Game BYU vs Iowa State.
    • If the lower-ranked team should happen to win the conference championship will the losing team be penalized for playing an extra game? There is a scenario where seven teams could tie for the SEC Championship all with 2 losses. In this instance, the loser would have 3-losses but played an extra game. Who makes the playoff? The team that played in a conference championship or one that sat at home and didn’t play another game?
  • The 5th seed is the best position to be in as it stands now, with no conference championship game and a home game against most likely a Group of 5 team. Ohio State, who is ranked #2 but seeded #5 would play #12 Boise State in the Horseshoe and then get a neutral site game against #9 ranked (4th seeded) BYU in the second round. With all due respect to Boise State and BYU that is an easy road to the semifinals.
  • The next iteration of the College Football Playoff needs to rank and seed the teams 1-12 (or 16 depending on what is agreed upon) regardless of conference. The #5 seed will always be a good team from either the Big Ten or SEC that didn’t make the conference championship game and shouldn’t have a more advantageous path to the semifinals than a conference champion.

Wherever your team is ranked (or not ranked) remember, this is the first of six editions of the College Football Playoff poll and the final poll will look much different than this week and is the only one that truly matters. 

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