By Brett Daniels
Many on the East Coast awoke to the news that the Pac-12 had risen from the ash heap by adding four Mountain West schools. Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Colorado State will join Washington State and Oregon State as full conference members in the 2026-2027 season. For the Pac-12 to be recognized as a full conference they will need to add at least two more teams to get to the minimum number of 8. Let’s look at the most likely scenarios for additional teams to join the conference:
1. Merger with the remaining schools in the Mountain West Conference
This is a scenario that was discussed this past summer after the old Pac-12 officially fell apart. Oregon State and Washington State were in a bind with no place for their sports to reside and the Mountain West agreed to a scheduling agreement. The reality of this scenario is that the Pac-12 doesn’t really want Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah State, or Hawaii in the conference. The travel costs of being in a conference with Hawaii are a concern and Wyoming/New Mexico/Utah State don’t offer anything regarding TV viewership or prestige. UNLV, Air Force, San Jose State, and grudgingly Nevada will most likely be the next group added to the conference.
2. Poach Western Teams from AAC
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North Texas, UTSA, Tulsa, and Rice are all geographic fits (at least to some degree) and would give the conference a presence in Texas and Oklahoma. The AAC currently does not have a grant of rights agreement that would restrict any of these teams from jumping ship. The conference did sign a 12-year, $1 billion dollar deal with ESPN in 2019, so the payout from a newly reconstituted Pac-12 would have to be significant to entice anyone to leave.
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3. California and Stanford return from the ACC
This is very unlikely as both schools signed onto the ACC’s existing grant of rights agreement when they became members of the conference this past summer. If Clemson and Florida State are successful in their current lawsuit against the conference that dissolves the GOR, it would make financial and geographical sense for those two schools to return.
4. Cal and Stanford return from the ACC and bring Clemson and Florida State with them
Now we are getting into some of the less likely scenarios of realignment, but in this climate of College Football anything is possible. According to rumors that surfaced during the summer, the SEC doesn’t want either of these teams as they don’t add anything to the conference footprint. Likewise, the Big Ten has not shown any interest either mainly due to the lower academic standing of both schools. Should Clemson and Florida State leave the ACC, they would only do so for a home in a power conference that has an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. The Pac-12 would regain that should it reconstitute and meet all the criteria as a conference.
5. The ACC and Pac-12 merge and add Notre Dame to form a 24-team Super Conference
This sounds almost as insane as the previous scenario, and yet there is some form of plausibility about it to make it seem almost possible. Notre Dame is a more natural fit in the Big Ten in all their other sports in addition to football due to geography. However the Irish already play 5 ACC teams every season in addition to Stanford before the Cardinal joined the ACC. Adding Notre Dame to the existing ACC plus the West Coast group would allow the negotiation of a new TV deal on par with the SEC and Big Ten.
6. Scooping up western located Sun Belt and/or Conference USA teams
This seems the most likely scenario to fill out the conference. Texas State out of the Sun Belt and UTEP out of Conference USA make the most sense along with the selected Mountain West teams in the first scenario. This would make the conference a 12-team league once again and expand its footprint into Texas.
The Pac-12 rising from the dead in the middle of the night is an indication that conference realignment is not over by any stretch of the imagination. The major conferences seem to be standing fast with their current membership for now. It’s the lower-tier schools that are fighting for their survival at the FBS level that will be jumping ship and looking for a better deal and more stability in a new conference.
