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College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

Conference USA 2025 Preview: Liberty Leads the Pack

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Tyson Helton
Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton on the sidelines during the rivalry football game against Middle Tennessee at MTSU, on Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024.

Photo Credit: HELEN COMER/The Daily News Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Conference USA looks completely different from how it might have looked a few years ago. Delaware, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Missouri State and Sam Houston State have all joined the conference within the last five years, and most have made the jump from the FCS level to the FBS level.

The C-USA has become a practical launching pad for programs to get up to FBS form and then move on to other conferences. Could a team from this conference of misfits find itself in the College Football Playoff?

1. Liberty Flames (Prediction: 11-1, 8-0)

Liberty is one of the best Group of 5 programs in the country. They’ve done a remarkable job over their first seven years playing FBS football, recording a record of 61-27. In their first year in the C-USA, Liberty won the conference and should represent the conference once again this season.

Now, can they get to the CFP? Unfortunately, their strength of schedule will most likely keep them out, and Liberty most likely won’t have a “quality-win” on their resume. However, finishing the year in a bowl game still goes a long way for a team that just entered a conference three years ago, and could look to get a bump into another conference in the future.

2. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Prediction: 9-3, 7-1)

Head coach Tyson Helton has done wonders at WKU. He’s had an above .500 winning record in the C-USA ever since taking over the Hilltoppers program in 2019. Last season, WKU was embarrassed in the conference championship game, 52-12 against Jacksonville State. Helton’s team should find themselves back in the championship game, and this time around, the beginning of WKU’s season will look different. Kicking the season off with a win against Sam Houston could provide the Hilltoppers with the tie-breaker they’d need to make it to a showdown against Liberty. Given how poor the rest of the conference will look, there most likely won’t be a representative other than Liberty in the CFP, but a strong bowl game could be in place.

3. Sam Houston State Bearkats (Prediction: 8-4, 7-1)

Sam Houston State will undergo a new regime with Phil Longo at the helm. The former Wisconsin offensive coordinator will return five players on offense, but none on defense. Opening the year against a tough WKU squad could follow at least two more losses against UNLV, Hawaii and a dominant Texas team. Fortunately, for Sam Houston, they play in a cakewalk of a conference, and a one-loss conference record should be a possibility for a team looking to find its footing under a new head coach.

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4. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Prediction: 7-5, 5-3)

Probably, the biggest dark horse to challenge for the crown in the C-USA is Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders are returning 12 starters,—five on offense, and 7 on defense. Unfortunately, those two units ranked 100th and below in FBS football. Now, if they can improve on those numbers and head coach Derek Mason calls the game the right way, perhaps they can contend. The toughest part of their conference schedule comes in the final two weeks of the season against WKU and Sam Houston. If they split, that’d be huge, but a sweep could be possible, and a shot at the title game would go with it, but a chance to establish the culture of the program might be just what Mason needs for 2026.

5. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (Prediction: 7-5, 5-3)

Right out of the gate, the defending C-USA champs will face off against the conference’s potential best in Liberty. Jacksonville State went into Lynchburg, Va., and beat the Flames, and all but cemented the conference title as there’s to lose. However, this year, Rich Rodriguez is no longer at the controls. First-year head coach Charles Kelly comes over from Auburn, where he was the co-defensive coordinator. Growing pains will happen for the Gamecocks. However, the program’s culture under Kelly will need to be established for the 2026 season.

6. Delaware Blue Hens (Prediction: 4-8, 3-5)

Unlike some of the other FCS teams making the transition to the conference, the Delaware Blue Hens were among the top in the league year in and year out.

There will be growing pains for the Hens heading into the C-USA, and that’s expected with the team playing catch-up in FBS play. However, Hens fans should trust head coach Ryan Carty and his staff to put together a team that should be ready to contend for the conference championship in a year.

7. Kennesaw State Owls (Prediction: 4-8, 3-5)

Last season was tough in the win-loss column for the Owls. They do return 11 starters—on offense, they bring back just three—but defensively, first-year head coach Jerry Mack will return eight. Mack was the running backs coach last year with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and was the head coach from 2014-17 with North Carolina Central. He inherits a program that had it’s only won two games last year, but with the returning starters cementing a culture will have to be at the forefront, and a four-win season could go a long way toward achieving that.

8. Missouri State Bears (Prediction: 4-8, 3-5)

In their last year as an FCS team, Missouri State went 8-4, and its offense ranked in the top 15 in the league. Now, seven of those offensive players return, and maybe the most important are coming back: the four offensive linemen and quarterback Jacob Clark. Unfortunately, for the Bears, their schedule doesn’t help with the transition from FCS to FBS.

A rude awakening comes in the first three weeks against USC, Marshall and SMU. If Missouri State keeps those games within four possessions at halftime, I’ll be impressed. However, once conference play comes around, the Bears will face Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee and Liberty, even for some already established FBS teams in the C-USA, that’s not easy. Hopefully, Missouri State can weather the storm and have some momentum heading into next season.

9. New Mexico State Aggies (Prediction: 4-8, 2-6)

After coming off two winning seasons in 2022 and 2023 (the final two that New Mexico State was an independent), head coach Jerry Kill left to become a consultant at Vanderbilt. He left the Las Cruces, N.M., in the hands of now head coach Tony Sanchez. Sanchez has never had a winning season at the collegiate level. Last year, appeared to be another sign that he’s best suited to be a position coach. A lot is going to need to change for the Aggies if, in 2026, Sanchez has a program worth attracting decent talent to compete in the C-USA moving forward.

10. FIU Panthers (Prediction: 3-9, 2-6)

New head coach Willie Simmons was instrumental in the rebirth of the Florida A&M program. Last season, Florida A&M won a conference title for the first time since 2010. Simmons is not looking to return FIU to its past glory like he did with Florida A&M. For the first time in the history of FIU, he’s looking to bring some type of consistent winning to the Panthers program that has only been in existence since 2002. FIU’s claim to fame have been that two legendary collegiate head coaches once coached the Panthers: Mario Cristobal, who started his head coaching career there, and Butch Davis, who, as of right now, ended his head coaching career there. It’s tough to imagine Simmons will spark any magic in his first season at FIU, but I’d be curious to see how he builds a program like he did at Florida A&M.

11. UTEP Miners (Prediction: 4-8, 2-6)

Head coach Scotty Walden learned fast last year that the FBS level is nothing like the FCS, and UTEP stumbled to just a 3-9 record, although they did finish tied for sixth in the C-USA which was pretty impressive for a team to finish ninth out of 10 in last year’s media poll. Regardless, if Walden’s Miners expect to contend this year, they will be in for a rude awakening. Forget playing a buy-game at Texas, three of the conference’s best are on the Miners’ schedule—Liberty, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State all have the potential to be lopsided losses. With just six returning starters in El Paso, Texas, the thought of finishing in the top half of the conference will be far from tough

12. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Prediction: 3-9, 1-7)

Head coach Sonny Cumbie improved Louisiana Tech’s win total from three wins to five last year, and a fifth-place finish in the conference. Unfortunately, this season won’t be much better for the Bulldogs. With just eight starters returning, and a coach who hasn’t shown the ability to get a team to gel, it’ll be tough to imagine Cumbie returning for 2026. Louisiana Tech is far from the program that Cumbie inherited. A program that, believe it or not, had one losing season in C-USA play, that year was the year before Cumbie took over.

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