By Butch Buchanico
Lines courtesy of BetMGM
1. Georgia
+350
— No surprise to see the Dawgs in this spot after not getting a chance to rightfully defend their title. Kirby Smart warned the country he would do what he had to do to show they belong, and they promptly beat down the Seminoles with no remorse. The thing to watch is players that are coming and going via the transfer portal and NFL draft. The pickup of Trevor Etienne from Florida will keep them strong. With Alabama moving forward without Nick Saban, the SEC is Georgia’s to lose. Once in the playoff, it turns to a mini tournament and Georgia has the experience and hunger to not only get there but take it home. I’m not thrilled with the value, but, as expected, they will be odds-on favorite into the start of the season.
2. Alabama
+550
— On name alone, the Tide sit early in the two spot, but I expect them to drop down. Coach Kalen DeBoer brings a new day and philosophy. No doubt the Alabama brand will stay the same, but the style will not. Some of Saban’s recruits have already fled for the transfer portal, and their QB situation is not yet decided even with Jalen Milroe’s return. I expect a down year, which by the Tide standards, may be 3 losses. There is much better value lower in the top ten.
3. Ohio State
+550
— When Kyle McCord entered the transfer portal, it hit a lot of people with surprise. Those close to the situation say coach Ryan Day was not a fan and constantly pressured McCord to the point of announcing immediately after the season that McCord would have to compete for the 2024 job despite Ohio State’s success. The answer will be Will Howard, who led K-State to a Big 12 title a season ago. This is an upgrade, in my opinion, especially since Marvin Harrison Jr. is opting for the draft. Ohio State also picked up elite running back Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss and a starting offensive lineman in Seth McLaughlin from Alabama, among others, and have killed in the portal. This has a nice value at +650. You may not see a better price after spring workouts.
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4. Michigan
+900
— Returning as the champion is very difficult in any sport, especially college football. There will be a much more difficult road with a 12-team playoff. The status of their head coach, Jim Harbaugh, is also unknown as I write this. This is a team where the NIL could determine who stays and who leaves since their marketability is at its peak. JJ McCarthy has opted for the draft, but Michigan should have no trouble retaining or obtaining players. However, I do not believe this is a viable option at 9-1.
5. Texas
+900
— Another +900 with significant value is the Longhorns. They retain their QB as Quinn Ewers announced he is staying with the team, and coach Steve Sarkisian had his contract extended. The offense should not miss a beat, and they will look to shore up a defense that was exposed in the playoff against Washington. Look for some portal additions and some aggressive defensive recruiting. They make the move to the SEC, but Texas will compete and still be a premiere program. Texas has a nice NIL bank also, so take the value here now because by the end of September, it will not be there.
6. Oregon
+1000
— Coach Dan Lanning was a top candidate to head to Tuscaloosa but assured those in Eugene he was remaining there to finish the job. Perhaps the acquisition of two-way threat QB Dillion Gabriel and D-II All-American RB Jay Harris helped the cause. They really have no significant losses to report in the portal. The move to the Big Ten, where smash mouth, big boy upfront football is the norm, will serve as a test for the Ducks. Nike will more than likely continue to help with the NIL situation. A new conference with the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, and other defensive stalwarts like Iowa and Penn State will be a different look for Lanning. Stay away from this.
7. Ole Miss
+1100
— No one was happier to see the changes at Alabama than Ole Miss. Ole Miss seems to be a roller coaster every year, bringing hope of getting over that hump only to come sliding down. Lane Kiffin has a good recruiting record, currently sitting around 20th in FBS football, and has been actively landing transfer portal players. Ole Miss may make the playoff as an “at large” team. I see them as maybe a third or fourth choice to win the SEC. With that said, stay away.
8. LSU
+1600
— Probably the best value on the board, in my opinion, is grabbing LSU at 16-1. Brian Kelly has now been there for pretty much a complete cycle, and the system and attitude should be in place. The transfer portal absorbed some of LSU players upfront, but they will be explosive on the outside, gaining Mississippi State wideout Zavion Thomas and Liberty standout CJ Daniels. With the offense still set to him without QB Jayden Daniels and the fervor in Baton Rouge, this is absolutely a great value.
9. Clemson
+2000
— Dabo Swinney teams will always play with heart and determination, but the ACC has strengthened, and Clemson has kind of lost some of its value. Swinney has been a loud advocate against the transfer portal and NIL, which doesn’t help. With all the movement and the whispers of Dabo’s name at high-profile programs, this is a definite pass. They will have to win the ACC to get a ticket to the dance.
10. Florida State
+2000
— Coach Mike Norvell left 2023 with a bitter taste and was thoroughly embarrassed at the hands of a slighted Georgia team. Despite going undefeated up until that dreadful day without his QB and a handful of starters, he has renewed his contract with a pledge to stay at FSU for a while. This looks like a transition year but in an ACC with a lack of street cred and a push for Florida State to immediately leave the ACC, 2024 does not look to fare well for the Noles. Save you money.
