While most of the focus is on FBS Championship odds, there is growing interest in the world of FCS football. So, here are a few thoughts on the current championship odds, from BetOnline, for the Football Championship Subdivision. First, here are the favorites:
| North Dakota State | 2/1 |
| Montana State | 5/1 |
| South Dakota State | 6/1 |
| Incarnate Word | 7/1 |
| South Dakota | 8/1 |
| Montana | 12/1 |
| Tarleton State | 25/1 |
| Monmouth | 33/1 |
| Rhode Island | 33/1 |
| Stephen F. Austin | 33/1 |
| Villanova | 33/1 |
| Western Carolina | 33/1 |
| Northern Arizona | 50/1 |
Considering North Dakota State has won 10 of the last 14 championships, it wouldn’t make any sense not to have them as the preseason favorite every year. On top of that, they are the defending champions after not winning the previous two. However, if you want to find a hole in their armor, they have “only” won one of the last three championships and two of the last five.
While Montana State, who lost to the Bison in last season’s title game, is the second favorite, it is South Dakota State that has won two of the last three championships. The Jackrabbits are coming off a 12-3 season, with two of those losses coming to the Bison by a combined score of 41-30.
Aside from the Bison and Jackrabbits, the only two schools to win an FCS championship since 2011 are now both playing FBS football: Sam Houston in 2020 and James Madison in 2016. Which means everyone else on the above chart can be considered a long shot, no matter their odds.
Montana State did come close last year, and also lost in the 2021 championship, while their rivals, Montana, lost in the 2023 championship. The last school on the above list to have played in the championship game that has yet to be mentioned is Villanova, who defeated Montana in 2009.
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If you’re looking for dark horses this season, focus on the schools that aren’t in either the Big Sky or Missouri Valley Conferences. The regular season will be easier and if a lucky playoff draw, they could avoid any of the above-mentioned schools until the semifinals or championship. That leaves Incarnate Word and Tarleton State as the two favorites.
Incarnate Word has impressed over the last four seasons, having totaled 42 wins and only 10 losses. They made it as far as the semifinals in 2022 and quarterfinals in 2024, with those seasons coming to an end against North Dakota State and South Dakota State.
As for Tarleton State, they are new to the party. They only made the move from Division II to FCS prior to the 2020/2021 season but already made their first playoff appearance in 2024. The Texans have also been an under-the-radar choice to already make a jump to the FBS level in the coming years.
While wagering against North Dakota State is never the smart move, there are opportunities out there to win big. But it will take some guts to grab those opportunities.
