The third year is generally considered a significant year for a college football head coach. The game certainly has become less forgiving and the grace periods shortened in some cases, but by the end of year three we should start seeing progress in a head coach. I am going to look at all the Power Four head coaches here, there are nine, and rank them by hot seat meter with 10 being nearly fired and 1 being as safe as can be. We have at least one from each P4 conference, though no more than three in any conference. The SEC being the sole conference with only a lone coach entering year three. Overall, we have a group of coaches entering their third year who are doing well as a group. Better than we would usually see. I believe only three have a realistic chance of getting fired, though two more could with a terrible year of 1 to 3 wins. Here are the coaches entering year three and how hot their seat is.
ACC
Brent Key, Georgia Tech
Hot Seat Meter: 4
Key has done a solid job. Tech fans appear to be very happy with his progress. A big year is expected in 2025 from the Yellow Jackets, though. For all the perceived success his record is only two games above .500, at 18-16. That doesn’t figure in the growth in the aftermath of the poor situation he took over from Geoff Collins. Key has things looking on the up and has done admirable. He deserves to be on the lower end of the meter, a four might be too high but his average record and expectations bring him in there.
Jeff Brohm, Louisville
Hot Seat Meter: 1
Like Key, Brohm is coaching at his alma mater, which always gives you more rope to work with. Unlike most guys on this list he was a massive success who played for a conference title at another P4 conference before going home. Brohm is 19-8 with a 10- and nine-win season under his belt. He is among the 10 safest coaches in America. The situation he inherited, his past success and landscape of college football make it look like he can write his own ticket. I expect him to make a playoff appearance in the next three seasons.
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Big Ten
Matt Rhule, Nebraska
Hot Seat Meter: 6
Now we’re in the Big Ten and things get interesting. Frankly, he is expected to make significant improvements in year three. He sits at one game under .500 in two years at Nebraska. At both Temple and Baylor he achieved double-digit wins in year three, if he hits nine that’s a massive success. Eight is probably what is expected and would be tolerated. If Nebraska misses a bowl he will probably be gone, though I doubt that happens. He returns a QB who was a massive recruit and they look like they’re heading in the right direction.
David Braun, Northwestern
Hot Seat Meter: 4
Braun was the toughest one to peg in this list. He was 8-5 and conference coach of the year in 2023, then 4-8 in 2024. Expectations aren’t super high here but in 2026 they will be entering a new state-of-the-art stadium and that might raise expectations or prompt decision makers for a new start. My opinion is that he has done admirable and was a massive success in his first year. If things go terrible in 2025 there’s a chance he could be let go, but I think it requires an awful season. It might be likely that he enters 2026 needing to win.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Hot Seat Meter: 6
The hottest seat in the Big Ten is in Madison, Wis. Fickell would be higher than six if it weren’t for his extremely high buyout and silly extension he was given. He would be owed over $40 million if let go, that’s a massive amount. He is among the most disappointing coaches in the country given what the expectations were when he came from Cincinnati. It was expected they’d be contending for Rose Bowls and playoff appearances, not missing bowl games like 2024. The schedule in 2025 is the toughest in the Big Ten and top five nationally.
Big 12
Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State
Hot Seat Meter: 2
No one expected a conference title and playoff appearance in 2024 but Dillingham defied expectations and got both. He was 3-9 in season one, so a regression this year could make his overall record not as great as some might think. Nonetheless, the Sun Devils look to have staying power. Sam Leavitt is among the best returning QBs and the defense will be strong. He has built up enough good grace to have at least two down years here. In 2025 they look to challenge for the Big 12 title again and return to the playoff.
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
Hot Seat Meter: 7
We move to a coach who has not met expectations at his current job. Satterfield was just average at Louisville (25-24) and is a poor 8-16 over two seasons at Cincinnati. He needs to make a bowl game in 2025 or else. If they miss the postseason again I think he gets fired, and reasonably so. There is promise, Brendan Sorsby is a good QB. But no one can argue that Satterfield has met expectations thus far for the Bearcats. If things go poorly he may not finish the season.
Deion Sanders, Colorado
Hot Seat Meter: 3
I’m so pleased that it appears Coach Prime’s health struggles are behind him. That was refreshing to see. He is loved in Boulder, Colo. has created a national brand, and in two years he took the worst P4 team to a bowl game. Now we see what he can do after losing two elite players. I loved this hire when it was made and despite the mediocre record, he has been the reason behind immeasurable growth and success, similar to Key, though more so. His teams definitely have areas to improve in, and he knows that, I think he has the ability to stay consistent and keep the Buffs relevant.
SEC
Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Hot Seat Meter: 7
Freeze would’ve had a lower number last winter but not much has gone right in the offseason and he seems to be alienating the Auburn people who once backed him. One thing that might save him is the revolving door of coaches they’ve had in the past five years. Bryan Harsin lasted two years, though the boosters tried running him out right away, and his record was almost identical to Freeze’s. The talent is on this roster but his decisions at the QB position baffle me. Payton Thorne was never a guy who was going to compete in the SEC and Jackson Arnold came in after failing at another conference school. Much has been made of Freeze hitting the golf links this summer and getting behind on next year’s recruiting. The season opener at Baylor, where Auburn are now betting underdogs, could notch this number up if the Tigers lose.
