By Ty Scheiner
The upcoming college football season is full of promise, especially for several Group of Five (G5) teams looking to turn their fortunes around. These sleeper teams, despite tough seasons last year, have the potential to make significant strides in 2024 due to favorable schedules, key additions through the transfer portal, another year of experience, or overall improvement. Let’s dive into the top G5 sleeper teams poised to surprise everyone this season.
Florida Atlantic Owls
The Tom Herman era in Boca Raton didn’t get off to the best start, as the Owls went 4-8 last season, with four of those losses coming by a touchdown or less. One big thing that FAU has going for them in 2024 is the ease of the schedule, as they only face two teams that went bowling last year. Although there is continuity among the staff, there are a lot of new faces in Boca.
The offense brings in a few notable transfers, including WR Marylyn Johnson from Buffalo and QB Cam Fancher from Marshall. As Coach Herman alluded to, the offensive line is a bit of musical chairs right now, but he is optimistic that they will find continuity among a starting five. Having Federico Maranges as the leader in the trenches will be important for the rest of the group.
Two notable transfer additions are safety Philip Dunham from Indiana and DE Kyle Laing from Buffalo. It’s only the spring game, but Coach Herman was happy with how the defensive front played, in addition to the secondary. If the Owls are going to be successful this year, they will have to play well on defense and win the turnover battle. If the spring game is any indication, the FAU defense will need to replicate pressuring the QB and getting tackles for loss. Takeaways are going to play a major part in the FAU defense this season.
In Year two under Herman, I believe we will see the Owls take the next step and become a bowl-eligible team at a minimum. They have a chance to go 4-1 in their first five games, and in the back half of their schedule, I think they can secure at least another three wins.
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Sam Houston State Bearkats
It was a tough start for the former FCS powerhouse Bearkats in their first year in the FBS in 2023. K.C. Keeler and company began their season with eight straight losses before earning their first win at the Division I level, but they finished strong with a 3-1 record in their final four games. Keeler, who was 85-27 with Sam Houston before last season, has built a successful program, and while some growing pains were expected with the jump to the FBS, I see the Bearkats improving in their second year.
According to Bill Connelly, SHS ranks 25th in all of FBS for returning production, with 69% (81% on offense and 58% on defense). They return five offensive linemen who were all starters last season, bringing experience and depth. Additionally, Keeler hired strength and conditioning coach Kevin Schadt from UTEP to help improve a unit that struggled with running and controlling the line of scrimmage. Central Michigan transfer QB Jase Bauer joins the team, hopefully bringing more explosiveness to an offense that boasts a deep running back room and one of the best wide receivers in the C-USA, Noah Smith.
Last year, the defense was a bright spot, keeping the team competitive in several games, with five losses by a touchdown or less. Though the defense doesn’t return as much experience as the offense, Keeler hired Skylar Cassity, the youngest defensive coordinator at the FBS level, viewed as a promising, up-and-coming defensive mind. With the departure of four-year captain and leader Trevor Williams, Cassity will look to Sincere Jackson to fill that void. While the offensive line brings back experience and depth, the defensive line will face challenges due to a lack of experienced players, which might be Cassity’s biggest hurdle in his first season as DC.
With a manageable schedule in their second year at the FBS level, I believe the Bearkats have the potential to double their wins in 2024 and become bowl-eligible. If they can turn some of last year’s close losses into wins, Keeler and company could see a ceiling of seven or eight wins.
Bowling Green State Falcons
I know the favorites to meet up in the MAC championship will be Toledo and Miami, but there is a path for Bowling Green to be a dark horse in the 2024 season. Scot Loeffler and the Falcons went 7-6 last year, including 5-3 in the conference, with a one-point loss to MAC runner-up Toledo.
Expectations will be high for their offense as they return 73% of production, including 2023 All-MAC First Team Tight End Harold Fannin Jr. and All-MAC Second Team Running Back Terion Stewart. For the Falcons to seriously contend for the MAC, they’ll need Connor Bazelak to showcase his Big Ten/SEC caliber talent. The former Indiana and Missouri quarterback has had decent seasons but will need to take the next step for the team to contend. He has the weapons in Fannin, and Loeffler added two transfers from Kansas State, RJ Garcia II, and Auburn, Malcolm Johnson Jr.
Defensively, they do lose 2023 All-MAC Cornerback Jalen Huskey to Maryland but return Second All-MAC Cornerback Jordan Oladokun. Although some regression might occur, last season Bowling Green was tied for first in turnovers gained with 28, and they will need similar success in the turnover battle to improve upon their 7-win mark and contend for the conference. Loeffler also brought in Cornell Brown to coach the defensive line, replacing Julian Campenni, hired as defensive ends coach by Rutgers in January.
Looking at the upcoming schedule, I think the floor is a small improvement from last year with seven or eight wins, but if they can continue winning the turnover battle, stay healthy, and remain consistent on both sides of the ball, I believe the Falcons can potentially have an upset or two, hit double-digit wins, and play for the MAC championship.
Colorado State Rams
I understand this might not be the biggest sleeper pick, but I feel like Jay Norvell and the Rams are on the brink of a breakout season. Finishing 5-7 last year, with four of those losses coming by single digits, 2024 could be the year the Rams not only make a bowl for the first time under Norvell but potentially contend for the MWC title.
Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns along with some great weapons in arguably one of the better wide receiver rooms in the conference, if not the entire G5, with Tory Horton, Dylan Goffney, and Baylor transfer Armani Winfield. The offensive line brings experience and is pretty deep. This is good news for the Rams’ backfield, which is another underrated group in terms of experience and depth, featuring Justin Marshall, who had a breakout end of season last year.
I think the difference between being stagnant and making the jump from last year’s record will fall on the defense. The defensive side left a little to be desired as they ranked 104th in total defense. Safety Jack Howell returns for his senior season along with transfers including cornerback Isaiah Essissima and cornerback Elias Larry. When it comes to the defensive line and linebacker groups, it will be a young but talented group looking to improve upon last year’s defense. Players to keep an eye on include Buom Jock at linebacker and redshirt freshman Javion Smith-Combs on the line.
In the Rams’ third year under Norvell, where they have been slowly improving each year, the talent is there to become bowl-eligible for the first time under Norvell, but the potential could be even greater, perhaps competing for a conference championship. I see their floor as getting to a bowl, but with all seven home games being manageable, if they can get a couple of wins on the road, their ceiling should be eight or nine wins. Will it be enough to compete for the MWC? That’s to be seen, but that would be a major step for Norvell and the Rams.
Marshall Thundering Herd
The Thundering Herd enter their fourth season under coach Charles Huff, coming off their third straight year of making a bowl. Last year, they finished with a 6-7 record but didn’t finish the second half of the season strong. Marshall ranked 60th in total defense and 85th in total offense, so the Herd will need to improve in both areas to make it four consecutive years in a bowl and even contend for a Sun Belt title. Although they rank closer to the bottom in returning production, they did sign a transfer class that includes 12 players from power conferences.
Offensively, they bring in Tulsa QB transfer Braylon Braxton and former Wake Forest QB Mitch Griffis to compete for the QB job while adding weapons like Christian Fitzpatrick, former Michigan State WR, and former Middle Tennessee WR playmaker Elijah Metcalf. Once they figure out the QB situation, the hope is that these new additions will bring more explosiveness to an offense that averaged only 22.8 ppg last season. Another significant piece is the addition of new offensive coordinator Seth Doege, who is implementing his version of the “Air Raid” offense. I have high hopes for the Herd’s offense with the combination of Doege calling plays, a deep and talented WR room, and highly-regarded transfer running back Jason Shuford from North Carolina State.
On the defensive side, Marshall signed seven defensive linemen, five defensive backs, and two linebackers through the portal. Overall, Huff signed one of the better transfer classes in the Group of Five, and fans will be hoping to see instant success in 2024. One of those transfers is LB Ashton Heflin, who comes from Georgia Tech with four years of eligibility left. In the secondary, they added Isaiah Johnson, a transfer from Arizona State who was the 13th-ranked CB in the 2021 class and will be looking to make an immediate impact for the Thundering Herd. This offseason, Huff aimed to use the portal to add more depth to the defense; the question is if we will see the results on the field this season.
Huff should get the Herd to another bowl in his fourth season, but if all things click and Doege and the offense can show promise in implementing the “Air Raid,” we could see something closer to Huff’s 2022 season when the Herd went 9-4.
