by Kyle Golik
As the savvy newshound that I am, I stumbled across this Joseph Goodman article from AL.com with the headline, “Is This The Final Season for Nick Saban?”
Goodman wrote an excellent article with some bold predictions for Alabama and the SEC at large. When it came to Saban, he made bold predictions that Saban was done winning national championships and retirement may come as soon as Saban hits win No. 300.
Goodman points out a lot of good reasons why the end is sooner than we think. I agree with his assessment the game has changed significantly, and it is different than when Saban controlled it.
Players today, with NIL and the transfer portal, have options. They aren’t afraid to exercise these options. In the past, players had to “pay their dues” to crack the starting lineup. The limited options plus the allure of playing at a program like Alabama kept players with their teams.
Now that NIL is here, the ability any individual has to market & monetize themself anywhere has eliminated the stranglehold elite programs have of stockpiling talent. It is forcing coaches to expand their recruiting not just for new talent from high school and the transfer portal, but also for roster retention.
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This past week against Middle Tennessee State, Saban and Alabama held the depth chart, a major reason was Alabama has the most talent to lose. With teams scouting rosters of potential transfer portal candidates, it all begins with announced depth charts and friendly conversations that can have a team lose a player that can create depth problems quickly on a team.
You look at the Penn State/West Virginia game. There are a litany of reasons James Franklin had backups like Beau Pribula in. Getting them meaningful snaps, and in Pribula’s case, a TD as well helps keep them in the fold and not get wandering eyes. Franklin learned from the Will Levis transfer that you need to have a healthy rotation whenever possible to give the backup reps. This was exacerbated by the Sean Clifford injury at Iowa in 2021, and Taquon Roberson was like a fish out of water in Iowa City.
Saban has found that with a healthy rotation, kids today aren’t going to wait two to three years to get meaningful game reps.
With Saban being 72 this Halloween, a freshman and the next few incoming classes have to ask, how long will Saban want to be coaching?
This is something Saban discussed in his wide-ranging interview on “The Stephen A. Smith Show” Podcast, “I am also very aware that I don’t want to ever ride the program down. In other words, there’s going to come a time when my age and my circumstance — everybody is going to be able to tell somebody, ‘Well, he’s not going to be there. I mean, how long is he going to coach, until he’s 90?’ That will start to affect the program maybe in an adverse way. I don’t want to get there.”
“I don’t ever want to be in this position where I don’t feel like I’m making a positive contribution to the program, because I can still do the work at a quality level that is making a contribution to the success of the organization.”
— Nick Saban on The Stephen A. Smith Show
When a coach of Saban’s pedigree goes 11-1/12-0 on a yearly basis, it is easy to coach forever because you seem to have all the answers to the questions put in front of you. As college football starts to become even more complex, the answers become harder to find, and the questions mount on top of each other.
Saban’s legacy is the most secure one in the country. No one will remember years from now the decline of Alabama. You will remember how they were the most feared team in the country.
How soon is the end for Saban, I feel it is sooner than most imagine. I don’t feel Saban is driven by career milestones and individual achievements. That conflicts with “The Process.” I do feel he wants his legacy to leave a great situation for his successor to succeed and that his process lives on.
I feel anything beyond 2024 is a question mark. I don’t feel Saban wants to do a retirement tour. It will be a shocking and abrupt ending. Between the $17.5 million property he just bought on Jupiter Island, age, and the rapid changes in college football, the end is coming. We won’t know when, but it is a certainty.
