By Alec Nederveld
Florida coach Billy Napier hasn’t had the smoothest time as the Gators’ Head Coach. Since being hired before the 2022 season, Napier has a record of 11-14 (6-10 in the SEC). It’s a steep drop-off from his four-year run at Louisiana, a 40-12 record with four West Division Championships and two Sun Belt Championships.
Florida fans demand success and have so for some time now. Following the departure of Urban Meyer, Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, and Dan Mullen all had a chance to put Florida back on top of the SEC. They all had a 10-win season, but no coach lasted past four seasons. That just illustrates the expectations (and arguably impatience) of Gator fans.
Now, Billy Napier has something that none of his predecessors or competitors had to deal with. A lawsuit from former commit Jaden Rashada. Rashada claims he “was defrauded of millions of dollars in name, image and likeness money”.
The blows keep piling on for the man affectionately known to some as “Sun Belt Billy”. But how much of that hate is deserved?
Once Napier’s Gem, Now His Thorn
Coming out of Pittsburg, CA (Pittsburg) with stops at Bradenton Florida’s IMG Academy and Liberty in Brentwood, CA, Jaden Rashada was a prized target for many schools. He accumulated 32 offers, ranking as the 81st-best player in the country, 7th for quarterbacks, and 6th in California, per the 247 Sports Composite. In the end, his two top targets turned out to be on the other side of the country, the Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators.
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Originally, Rashada verbally committed to Miami on June 26th, 2022. Per his lawsuit, he had a $9.5 Million NIL deal. Florida, led by booster Hugh Hathcock one-uped it, offering 13.85 Million Dollars with a $500,000 signing bonus. For a k
The NIL deal from Florida was facilitated by The Gator Collective, which no longer exists. It’s unknown what Billy Napier’s involvement was in the NIL deal, but this whole situation was a black eye for the Florida program and everybody involved in it. Ohio State coach Ryan Day estimated he needs $13 Million for the Buckeyes’ roster and about $2 million “for premier quarterbacks”. The Rashada deal exceeds both.
As coaches, collectives, and programs navigated their way through NIL, Somebody was bound to make a major mistake. It honestly could have happened to anybody, and it almost did happen to Miami. In this case, it just so happened to be Florida.
The On-Field Product
Every Florida coach since the 1970’s has seen at least an eight-win season within their first two years. Many have reached 10 wins and Urban Meyer won a national championship in his second season. Billy Napier hasn’t exceeded six, leading the Gators to their first back-to-back losing seasons since 1978-1979.
On the other hand, every coach has had a better foundation to build off of. When Florida began the Napier era in 2022 – an electric 29-26 win over #7 Utah – the Gators only started three seniors and seven juniors. The majority of the starting lineup were underclassmen.
The 2023 roster wasn’t much older. Two seniors, ten juniors. The roster needed a lot of work after Dan Mullen’s tenure, someone who didn’t like recruiting during the season. The Gators saw Freshman play a total of 2,660 snaps, good for fifth in the Power Five.
With many Fifth and Sixth-year players because of the Covid year, playing a young roster becomes even harder, especially in the toughest conference with brutal schedules. 12 of Billy Napier’s 25 games have been against top-20 teams. Two of them were against #1 Georgia.
Discipline and penalties have been another complaint of the Napier regime, but it’s something he’s improved on from Mullen. In 2021, his last year, Florida gave up 918 penalty yards, ranking 120th of 130 FBS teams. Those numbers have shrunk to 63rd and 48th in 2023, surrendering 595 yards. Everybody can always improve on becoming more disciplined and giving up fewer penalties, but Napier has done so in his two seasons.
The Inexcusable
I can write off some of Napiers’ shortcomings. But the coach is far from perfect. His teams have collapsed the last two seasons, ending once promising years on sour notes. Florida lost their last three games in 2022 and final five in 2023. Six of the losses were against ranked teams, but four losses were by one-possession and two were two against straight-up bad Vanderbilt and Arkansas teams. You can’t be the only SEC team to lose to Arkansas in 2023 and one of two SEC teams to lose to the Commodores in the decade.
In addition, as young players get more snaps, they should play better at a faster rate than veterans. That hasn’t happened.
Last seasons collapse also led to a brutal string of decommitments and portal entries. I tabbed Florida as a signing day loser with many late flips from Florida. Three backed off a verbal commitment on signing day, with eight total decommiting in November and December. This dropped Florida’s class, once ranked third in the country to their 13th-ranked finish.
In total, 23 players left Florida via the Transfer Portal. Not one stung more than RB Trevor Etienne who’s run for over 700 yards in his two seasons. He went to hated rival and perennial power Georgia. EDGE Princely Umanmielen led the team in tackles for loss and sacks in the last two years and will go to Ole Miss next season.
Losing players to graduation and the NFL draft is one thing. It happens year in and year out for even the top programs. But seeing your better players leave for conference opponents who are better than you is a tough pill to swallow.
Looking Ahead to 2024: Optimism and Caution
It’s no question that Billy Napier is on the hot seat ahead of the 2024 season. Even I agree that he needs to show improvement or find himself on the unemployment line. Unfortunately, his schedule looks even worse than in years past. The Gators could realistically play eight or nine ranked teams in the first year of the expanded SEC.
On the other hand, this is Florida’s best roster since Napier arrived. Much of the young talent is still here and has gotten more time to develop. In addition, the Gators have brought their best portal class in the Napier era, doing a lot of work in the Spring portal window.
Florida currently has the fifth-ranked portal class with 15 commits. I think Penn DL Joey Slackman looks to make the largest impact in 2024, but Colorado CB Cormani McClain and USC IOL Jason Zandamela have the future looking even brighter.
Among returners, QB Graham Mertz looks to improve on a very efficient 2023 season. RB Montrell Johnson has had 800 rushing yards in all three seasons, could this be the year he joins the 1,000 club? It very well could as he’ll finally be the featured back. S Jordan Castell led Florida in tackles as a true freshman and CB Jason Marshall Jr. is a veteran who deflected 10 passes a year ago.
For Billy Napier to return in 2025, Florida likely needs eight, maybe seven wins depending on how the year goes. I believe in the process and foundation built by Napier and expect the team to pull an upset or two. If Florida State and Mike Norvell could show anything to their in-state rivals, it’s to trust the process, utilize the transfer portal, and build from the inside out. Sound familiar?
